Rocky Top Derby
A pair of 2 mile grade II races are going this weekend in
1. Imoto 16-1
Imoto has been running at the allowance level primarily in non-winner conditional races. He has recently been trying out the long routes and has found success wining a 14f race in September by 6 with a speed of 95. Imoto has only one career race with a speed over 100 which puts him at a disadvantage in this field. Several horses have regularly surpassed this speed mark and Imoto is making a huge jump to the G2 level. He likes to run near the lead and the last two starts he was the frontrunner. Leading this race may be his best chance if he can breakaway from the field. Also, the track is labeled as good and Imoto has won both times he’s been on an offtrack.
2. Looking to Network 7-1
In 10 stake races (which includes one graded start) Looking to Network has a record of 1-1-3. His last 2-mile race was an allowance event in June where he won handily by 4 strides and a speed of 101. It’s hard to tell where Looking to Network will run in the race, but I think the middle of the field is most likely. He rarely will set the pace, but that may not be a bad idea in this race. Twice he has gone to the front and twice he has wired the field. He may figure in the triples, but I don’t see him taking the victory in this race.
3. Montana King 8-1
Speeds have been a little low for this well-bred Awesome Again Colt. Throughout 2010 he has recorded speeds in a tight range of 93-97. He has yet to break 100 and only has 2 wins in 12 lifetime starts. He’s been hitting the board with some regularity, however, Montana King has been medium to low-sized fields. Fortunately, this is a medium sized field and Montana King moves up after a second and third in his only two stake races. Looks like it may be a tough race for him.
4. Distorted Colac 8-1
Distorted Colac is bred out of Distorted Humor who has a knack for having offspring that fare well in route races. Distorted moved into graded racing this past August running at distances of 9f and 8f with the best being a 4th at the longer distance where he set a 103 speed, his career best. That’s the only race he’s been over 100 and he’s never raced over 10f before. He adds a lot of distance and I’m taking a “wait and see” approach here.
5.
As a 6-year old, Rock Island Raptor has won 12 races in 38 dirt starts. In all those starts, he has only gone 2-miles once and that was 2 years ago. This season, he has an average speed of 103 on the dirt running between 9 and 11.5 furlongs. On the dirt, he has 7 stake race appearances and a record of 3-1-2 on the dirt. Although he has race graded before on the turf, this is his first race at this level on the dirt. The track is wet and he has won 3 times in 7 starts of off-track conditions. He looks promising as a front runner, the only question is the long distance.
6. Job Cannon 9-1
Job Cannon is similar to Imoto in that he also has been racing in allowance conditional races and also lunges upward to the graded level. His last start was a near miss at 12f, finishing 2nd by a quarter length in a speed of 103. It looks like he will run near the front which will give him a good chance to steal this race. Job will be going the marathon route for the first time but looks like he could handle the distance. If he can put in a similar effort like his last, an upset may be in the making.
7. Hellhound 4-1
Hellhound is a Big Brown bred colt and looks promising with question marks. His last two starts were in graded turf events where he ran speeds over 100 but missing the board. On the dirt, he’s tried the graded level 5 times at distances of 9f to 10f finishing 3rd once. The graded races he’s been in before seem to have had tougher foes than he’s seeing in this race, still, his record at this level hasn’t been shinning. He hasn’t gone 16f before, but his last start on the turf at 14f was a speed of 101 and missed winning by a length while finishing 4th. He’ll be in the back of the field and may have his best shot to date of winning a graded race.
8. Wrisky Cat 2-1
A ten-time runner in graded races, Wrisky Cat has a record of 1-1-0. Not the best of records for running in graded events, but trainer Tcrowell may have stumbled upon something. In May, he moved Wrisky out of the mile to 10f races he was in up to 14-16f races and found success. Since May, he is 2-0-1 in 5 starts with an average speed of 105. This includes a pair of races with speeds of 111, not bad for a 6 year old. Wrisky will be in the back of the field and could pick up his second graded win.
No real standouts in this race and I’m going with Hellhound. Albeit, the last start was on the turf and he showed a nice effort going 14f for the first time. He faces a softer field and opportunity is knocking at his door.
Job Cannon’s last race was a good effort. Should be able to handle extra distance and a nice price too boot.
Change in distance for Wrisky Cat has been working and is likely to find a position on the board, rounding out my top three picks.