Field of Eleven Trying to Keep Bluegrass Hopes Alive in the Buccaneer Derby

The sun will be shining on Sunday in Florida as a field of eleven will go 8.5 furlongs over a fast main track. This is a field that has struggled to find success against stakes company, with only one stakes win among the entire field. Even so, there are some very talented horses in here.

(1) READY TO BE GREAT (owner sjmeola14, 5/1) is very familiar with this track, having raced in Florida in 5 out of his 6 lifetime starts. The gelding has been very consistent, finishing no worse than second in his career. He’s coming off a nice second-place effort in the Grade III Good Cow last month here at Florida, rallying to fall 3/4 of a length short. His two best races are arguably the two that have been run over route distances – the graded stakes race last time out, and an allowance race back in November that he won by a length and a half. He likes to hang by the back of the pack at the start of a race before charging hard at the end. For that reason, he should like the extra sixteenth of a mile and I like his chances.

(2) OF LITTLE INTEREST (owner resting, 23/1) will try to win this race just a month after breaking his maiden in Iowa. He’s been going back and forth between the dirt and turf ever since he debuted around this time last year. After a series of in-the-money finishes on the turf late in the summer and fall, owner resting sent him back to the dirt and stretched him out to 9 furlongs. He led the whole way, holding on to win by a neck. Before that last race, his last two dirt efforts last summer were pretty lackluster, finishing twelfth and fourth. That was a nice improvement in the last race, but it will take an even bigger jump to be in the hunt for this, which I’m not sure he’ll be up to just yet.

(3) MEDAGLIA REFLECTED (owner dkstables37, 5/1) is another of the three co-favorites in this race. He ships in from Louisiana, where he finished fourth in the Grade III Risen Star, which was held at the same distance as this race. In the other stakes race on his resumé, an ungraded stakes at Illinois, he faded to finish eighth. In between those two stakes races is a solid win in a NW2L allowance at 9 furlongs, where he put that field away by over two lengths. This is a tricky horse to get a handle on – he has struggled to hit the board in stakes races, but his steadily improving SP numbers suggest that there may reason for optimism. Even so, not sure I would take the 5/1 price on him here.

(4) IZALIS (owner deelyn2, 10/1) comes into the race off two wins in allowance races, both within a week of each other. That being said, that open allowance win last time out was against a very soft field, as it was a field of four with two CPU horses. Even with those considerations, he struggled to get by in the end to win by a head. The longer distances of late seem to be what he likes, and he’ll get a similar distance on Sunday. He did try ungraded stakes company back in October, finishing fifth 1 3/4 lengths back. I suspect the rest since late January will do him good for this race, but not sure he’s quite up to the level of the top horses in this race.

(5) WINTER SANDS (owner kev, 9/1) has won four in a row coming into this race, including an impressive 2-length victory in an ungraded stakes race up in Michigan last month. Before that, he blew by a pretty soft field in an allowance race to win by nearly 4 lengths, with additional allowance wins against somewhat tougher fields back in the field. After starting his career on the turf to largely disappointing results, he has been far more successful on the dirt, winning 5 out of 6. That last race was very good on paper and he is the lone stakes winner in the field, so if he can come back to race like that in this field, I like his chances to be in the mix at the end.

(6) CURLING IT IN (owner dumbledore1, 10/1) is looking to rebound after a brutal race is the Grade III Risen Star Stakes last time out. He started near the rear of the field, but faded badly to finish last, 16 lengths behind. His form has been inconsistent since the fall, with a solid maiden win in October followed up by a rough trip in an allowance race the next time out. After an allowance win in January, that Risen Star performance was pretty much the opposite. If you use that pattern, you can see how he can get in contention for this race. A step up off that January race would put him in the realm of possibility.

(7) TAKODANA (owner fairhaven9, 5/1) is the final of the three favorites in this race, and is coming over to the states for the first time after hanging out at the Dubai Racing Carnival for the winter. He easily dispatched with the competition over there, going 3 for 3 and easily won by 2 lengths last time out in a NW3L allowance race. The son of War Front put up an SP number of 102 last time out, tied with CAPOTE DUCK for the best in the field. In a race where most horses have very little, if any, stakes experience, a horse like this looms very dangerous. He has only gotten better as the races have gotten longer, and I suspect he won’t mind the extra sixteenth of a mile here.

(8) CAPOTE DUCK (owner duckman56, 7/1) has the most experience in this field, as he’ll be making the eleventh start of his career. Looking back through all those starts, you find a lot of very average starts before he exploded with a very impressive performance last time out up at New Jersey. In an open allowance race, he won by nearly a length with an SP number of 102. That one is tough to explain, as he had raced in other allowance races before that and had struggled to hit the board. If he can repeat that performance, then he is a contender here. I think I want to see another good performance first, given how much he jumped up in his last start.

(9) HOME TEAM COLORS (owner nepenthe26, 7/1) has the most stakes experience in the field, having raced in four stakes races and two graded stakes. The results, though, have not always been ideal. After a third and a fourth place finish in ungraded stakes last fall, he finished a well-beaten ninth in the Grade II Club Stakes back in November. His most recent start was a very disappointing thirteenth place finish in the Grade III Good Cow over this track. Before that race, though, he handily beat a pretty impressive field of Kentucky-breds in an allowance race at the end of the year. This colt just can’t seem to bring that kind of effort to a stakes race – will that change in this race?

(10) GABRIEL’S TEARS (owner ianwhipkey13, 6/1) is trying to find the winner’s circle again after struggling against NW2L company in his last few races. Those races, though, were against pretty large fields, and he has improved quite a bit in the span of the last three races. I suspect the last race SP number of 98 is part of the reason we find this very well-bred son of Distorted Humor in this race, and another step up in this race would squarely put him in the mix. This isn’t the toughest Grade III field, so you certainly can’t rule him out even at the short 6/1 price.

(11) DAY WAN (owner martin, 13/1) will round out this field of eleven, leaving West Virginia for the first time in his career. He’ll also have a new jockey for the first time, with J Caves taking over for W Bowman, who will stay back in West Virginia. Having won his last two races, he comes into this race out of a one-length score in a NW2L race. That was only a field of five, though, and he did not have as much success against larger fields earlier in his career. Even so, the 1:49.85 he ran for 9 furlongs last time out is not far off what GABRIEL’S TEARS ran over the same distance, so he is not too far off the top crop in this field.

My Picks:

(7) TAKODANA, 5/1 – Has been blowing away allowance competition of late, and has gotten better as the races get longer. One of the few in here that likes to be closer to the front, so the early fractions shouldn’t be bad.

(5) WINTER SANDS, 9/1 – He’s won four in row coming into this, and surprisingly is the lone stakes winner in the field. Capable of getting it done.

(1) READY TO B GREAT, 5/1 – Has been ultra-consistent and should like the extra sixteenth of a mile, but does the lack of early speed put a late closer like this at a disadvantage?

(9) HOME TEAM COLORS, 7/1 – He beat some really good horses in that allowance race two back. I have to think he eventually wakes up and puts together a performance like that in a stakes race.

Good luck to all!