Yielding Track Supplies Storyline In Paris
Ten three year olds line up for classic glory in the French 2000 Guineas in Paris this week. Run at one mile over a yielding turf course, the contestants start for a $500,000 purse. There are two grade one winners in the field, Teo’s Brilliant and M.A.S.H., but the favorite is Abantos who owns the highest speed of any horse in the race, a 107. Interestingly only half of the field has experience over a wet track and how these young colts react to the heavy Paris surface will have a big say in the outcome of the race. Let’s take a look at the field.
Saranac is a locally-bred entry by the French stallion Solider of Fortune. He sports four wins from fourteen starts, including one listed stakes race two starts back. He does have off-track experience, having finished second in a seven furlong allowance race last November run over a good surface. Even though he was second that day his speed increased from his previous start and was only one point below his subsequent start so it doesn’t seem like a little give in the ground will hurt his chances. As mentioned he won his only stakes race in March, going a mile and one sixteenth with a 101 speed. He returned to run a 99 in a mile and one eighth stakes in April where he finished second.
Haack’s Malibu is a son of Malibu Moon who is making his stakes debut in this start. He has four wins from eight starts but all of his wins came at the maiden or allowance level. He’s never run on an off track before. He only has two starts this season, both coming at a mile and one sixteenth. In the first he finished third with a 96sp and he won the most recent with a 100sp. He was given two months off over the winter to mature and it certainly seems to have been a positive for him. In four starts at this distance he has won three times and ran an inexplicable 7speed when distanced in the fourth leading us to believe an equipment malfunction or some other malady caused him to be eliminated from the race early on.
Mono Lyphic is a grade three winning son of Lonhro. He has five wins from eight starts including the Grade Three Finnish Line Stakes at six furlongs as a two year old. He is undefeated on the year having won an owner restricted allowance at a mile and one eighth in January and the Prospector Doc Turf Memorial at a mile and one sixteenth in his most recent start. He earned a career best 101sp for that race. That race came on March 3rd so he has had plenty of rest for this race. The last time he had an almost two month gap in his starts was when he won the Finnish Line so he could be ready to fire big. Unfortunately he is another who has not faced a soft track.
M.A.S.H. is a son of Dylan Thomas with four wins from nine starts in his career. As a two year old he won the Grade One High Flyer Stakes at one mile and looks to return to that level in this spot. He concluded his two year old season finishing sixth behind Teo’s Brilliant in the Futurity. He was then given a two month break over the winter and has made three starts this year. He won the Mat Jodie Turf Memorial in his first start back, taking the mil e and one eighth race with a 90sp (just three points shy of his career best). He’s been unplaced in two starts since, finishing over eighteen lengths behind the winner in each. M.A.S.H. has never run over an off track.
Rocking the House is a son of Fastnet Rock who has won four of his five career starts. His first three starts all came at one mile and he was brilliant in winning all three, including one race run over a good turf course. In February he stretched out to a mile and one sixteenth in the Ball Ban Turf Route and was a one length winner with a 92 speed, his lifetime best. He suffered his first career defeat in his last start, the mile and one quarter Grade Three Manatee Classic run over a yielding surface. He finished fifth that day with a 91sp. The questions surrounding that performance are obvious, was it caused by the jump in class, distance or the soft turf course? Certainly his previous win over ground with some give is commendable but the difference between a good and yielding surface can be difficult to overcome.
Teo’s Brilliant is a son of Teofilo. He has three wins in ten starts including last season’s Grade One Futurity Stakes at one mile. He also hit the board in three other graded starts last season, topped by a third place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf. This season he has one win from three starts. His win came in his second race, the mile and one sixteenth Ronaldo’s Sword Turf Route. He was fourth in both of his other starts, both against graded company and although he lost he ran his two best speeds of 101 and 100 in those efforts. He will be running on an off track for the first time in this spot.
Flinging Arrows is a son of A.P. Arrow who has one win from ten starts. He has hit the board in an additional seven races, including five stakes races, topped by a narrow defeat in the Grade One Firebird last season. He does have one run over an off track; he finished third in the six furlong New Sensations Turf Juvenile over a yielding surface last season. Although his speed of 76 was slightly below the 80 and 83 he ran in his previous and subsequent start, it was impressive that he closed strongly to be beaten less than two lengths in a twelve horse field. This season Flinging Arrows has a second a third and a fourth in three starts. His most recent race saw him take third in the mile and three sixteenths Zz Zzar Turf Route with a career best 96 speed.
Abantos is a son of Deep Impact who has five wins from twelve career starts. A grade three winner last season and fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf, Abantos has been alternately brilliant and ordinary in four starts this season. He was second in the one mile Grade Three Jellyton Stakes to start the year, running a 100 speed. He was then fifth in the Grade Three Super Hero Role Playing Stakes at a mile and five sixteenths before winning a listed stakes with a super hero-like 107speed. Most recently he was ninth in the Grade One Japanese 2000 Guineas at a mile and one quarter. Interestingly in three starts at one mile he has never won but finished second twice, both against graded competition. He broke his maiden over a good turf course, his only start on an off track.
Roadside Prayer is by Shamardal and based on the c-grade millionaire Neale Daniher, who did his best running at middle distances. Roadside Prayer has five wins from eight starts and bested his sire’s record in his most recent start when he won the Grade Three Dracula Stakes at one mile with a career best 99 speed. It was his second win in a row, both at that distance. He was stakes placed on the grass as a two year old but switched to the dirt for two starts over the winter. On the dirt he finished third in the mile and one sixteenth Kowboy Dirt Route run over a good track, his only experience with an off track.
Mr. Danehill is a son of Mr. Sidney who has four wins from eight starts to his credit. He has never routed and never run on an off track so this is an interesting spot to find him. He was grade three placed last season as a juvenile. He was given three months off over the winter and returned with a strong allowance victory at six furlongs. Most recently he was second in the seven furlong Turning Away Turf Sprint where he ran a career best 97 speed. For players who like the third off a layoff angle Mr. Danehill might be an interesting play. If he handles the distance and surface he may be sitting on a big race.
Good luck to all!