Sloppy Track For Gr. 2 Captain Hook
Okay. So you want to do something no one else has ever done in the history of Derbyfever? Here’s your shot, if you happen to have a horse in the $200,000 Grade 2 Captain Hook at New York Race Course this weekend, that is. It’s simple. Win the Grade 2 Captain Hook and then turn your beast around and put him in the Grade 1 New Yorker in a month and win the third leg of the Triple Crown. Sounds easy, huh, this Captain Hook – New Yorker double? Well, it’s not. It’s never been done. Never. Ever. Ever. Not even once, since the game began in 1999. Out of the thousands upon thousands of trainers who have played Derbyfever since 1999, not one single trainer has taken their Captain Hook winner and turned him around and won the third leg of the Triple Crown. So, if you want to make history (and really get noticed, in the process), here’s your shot. A field of 11 will go to post in the $200,000 Grade 2 Captain Hook this weekend, a nine-furlong test on the New York dirt course for three year olds. Some of these in the Captain Hook field this weekend were near misses for getting in the Bluegrass Derby field last weekend, but for a lot of them, their trainers are still trying to salvage at least a shot at Triple Crown history by pulling off this never done before Captain Hook – New Yorker double. In fact, only a handful of horses since 1999 have even run in the Captain Hook and then gone on to finish in the top three of the third leg of the Triple Crown. 2011 — Shoot The Barrel. He ran ninth in the Captain Hook before he went on to finish third in the New Yorker. 2010 — Mambo Heat. He pulled a real shocker in 2010. After finishing dead last in the Captain Hook, he turned around and finished second as an 18/1 long shot in the New Yorker behind Just Vengeance. 2009 — Giant Smack. Now, watch what this guy did. He finished third in the Captain Hook, and then his trainer turned him right around and finished second in the New Yorker behind Corinna. 2002 — All Lit Up. The Australian-bred did something no other horse has ever done. All Lit Up came off a run in the Captain Hook and won the New Yorker. He finished sixth in the Captain Hook, before he turned it around and won the big third leg of the Triple Crown. All Lit up fired as a 25/1 long shot, one of the longest shots to ever win the New Yorker. That’s how hard it is to pull the Captain Hook – New Yorker double. And even if you win this Captain Hook this weekend, you’re probably going to be a humongous long shot once your horse takes the track in the Grade 1 New Yorker. Only four horses in the history of Derbyfever have ever run in the Captain Hook and then finished in the top three in the New Yorker. And only one, the Aussie-bred All Lit Up, ever actually won the third leg of the Triple Crown. Good luck bucking the odds of pulling off this particular double. Now, get out there and make some history, all you Grade 2 Captain Hook trainers. By the way, this field is going to have it particularly tough this year to pull off a Captain Hook – New Yorker double, because the New York dirt course is going to be listed as sloppy this weekend. That means it’s going to take a lot of luck if your horse is a mudder to win this race and then hope that it rains in New York in about a month to set up some ideal conditions for your boy to win the third leg of the Triple Crown. Here is the field for the $200,000 Grade 2 Captain Hook, at nine furlongs on the New York dirt course, for three year olds. (1) WHENTHESHIPCOMESIN (GER) 6/1 Owner: Right At Home Stables (Monsun x Mr. Prospector x Buckpasser) The scratch-bred son of Monsun, who’s got Mr. Prospector and Buckpasser back there in his pedigree is only making his seventh career start this weekend. He’s either won or finished in the money in five of his six starts so far. And he’s only seen graded company once, and that was two starts back, when he finished a well beaten 12th in the Grade 3 Good Cow. Whentheshipcomesin has never been longer than a mile before, in ANY of his races, so he’s taking a pretty big step up in distance this weekend. He just popped his first triple digit speed figure last time out, when he just got nipped at the wire in an allowance event in Kentucky. In fact, all of his races have been at major race courses in the United States, so this guy has been seeing some pretty nice company in his races. He’s never seen a track other than fast before, so this sloppy New York Race Course this weekend could be interesting for him. He’s got a ton of speed, so watch for this guy to make the lead early. This is also the first time he’s running on about a month’s rest. All of his prior races have been spaced six to eight weeks apart. Another interesting angle for this well-bred son of Monsun. One of two entries in here from Right At Home Stables. (2) UMPHREY‘S MAGEE (KY) 10/1 Owner: Right At Home Stables (Henrythenavigator x Oh Please (Dynaformer)) Umphrey’s Magee is the second of three entries here for Right At Home Stables. He’s only got seven career starts, and only three of those have been on the dirt. The son of Henrythenavigator started off his career on the turf, all right here at New York Race Course. After he broke his maiden in his last turf start, Right At Home Stables put this guy on the dirt course in New York, in an allowance event, and he won. He not only won, but he popped big in the speed figure department. He ran ten points higher than anything he had ever thrown on the turf. And all that after a big winter layoff. After that he finished second in the Grade 3 UFO Stakes, where he popped his only triple digit speed figure (100). Last time out, he was well beaten in the Grade 1 Corkscrew Stakes, a Derby Lock Prep event. He’s never seen a sloppy course, and he could be another interesting shot here for Right At Home Stables. (3) ALWAYS CHARMING (JPN) 6/1 Owner: Broohar Stables (Silver Charm x World Promise (Zabeel)) Here’s a pretty colt from Broohar Stables. The light gray Japanese-bred son of Always Charming is by Silver Charm out of the Zabeel mare World Promise. In ten career starts, he’s only finished off the board once, and that was two starts back in the Grade 1 Immense Derby Challenge. He’s only got two wins. One came when he broke his maiden as a two year old, and then a couple starts later he got his second career win in an allowance event. This guy came so close to getting in the Bluegrass Derby last time out, when he finished second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a Derby Lock prep race. He popped a 101 speed figure in that race, anad he’s ranked 27th in the three year old colts dirt route division. That’s how close he came to getting in last week’s Bluegrass Derby field. Always Charming has never seen an off course in his career, but he has either won or finished in the money in nine of his ten starts, and he’s got nearly $400,000 in the bank for his connections. He’s a serious threat here, IF he can handle the sloppy track in New York this weekend. Don’t throw this guy off your exotic betting tickets. (4) KENWORTHY (CAN) 5/1 Owner: Mclevydoyle (Marchfield x Capote x Dr. Fager) I like Kenworthy a lot. And here’s why. He’s a Canadian-bred son of Marchfield, but he’s a scratch-bred whose got Capote and Dr. Fager back there in his pedigree. And when you see Capote in a pedigree, especially this close up, it usually means they like the mud. Kenworthy has handled the offtracks nicely in his only two starts on them. In his third career start, he finished second in a sprint allowance event in Argentina, and then last time out, he won on a course listed as good down in Louisiana, in an allowance event. He’s never been over 8.5 furlongs in his career. In fact, Kenworthy has only raced that long once, and that was two starts back, when he finished fourth in the Grade 3 Buccaneer Derby down in North Florida. Distance might be a question for him, but he does have something a lot of these don’t, and that’s off-track experience. It might just be enough for him to overcome his distance limitations. He’s got a ton of speed, so he won’t have a whole lot of mud flying in his face early, and that could be huge for him this weekend. Watch this one. He could pull off a surprise here. (5) ALLEVARD (KY) 13/1 Owner: Rafa Stables (Ghostzapper x Estay (Unbridled’s Song)) Allevard was cruising along in allowance events, winning four of his first five starts. He’s a son of Ghostzapper out of the Unbidled’s Song mare, Estay. He hit graded stakes company for the first time in his last start, when he finished fifth in the Grade 3 Buccaneer Derby. That wasn’t so hot, but look what he did in his first time at 9 furlongs in that race. His speed figure jumped up 10 points to 96, a career high for him. He’s also got A.P. Indy back there in his pedigree, so that’s kind of hot to see. One thing about this horse. It’s been quite a while since his last start, nearly two months, in fact. He doesn’t have any off-track experience, running on all fast tracks in his career. He might be ready for this bunch, IF he likes the mud here in New York this weekend. Lots of question marks here, but he’s got the breeding, and he could just pull off a big surprise here in the Grade 2 Captain Hook, despite that 13/1 morning line. (6) RESPONSIBILITY (KY) 13/1 Owner: CVBear And The Temple Of Funk (Blame x Giant’s Ransom (Giant’s Causeway)) This son of Blame broke his maiden at first asking, and he’s only got seven career starts. That maiden breaking win came about a year ago, so he’s been pretty lightly raced by CVBear, his connections. He’s only got two wins in those seven career starts, but his last two races have shown a major jump in the speed figure department. He popped a 96 and a 94 in his last two times on the track, and he seems to be maturing nicely for CVBear. Those two starts, with the major speed figure jumps, came after he took the winter off, so they look particularly impressive when you put them in that light. One interesting thing about Responsibility is that he’s a deep closer in a race that’s full of speed. Now, how that translates with a course listed as sloppy, well, we can only wait and see. But if he can get a few of these to get hooked up in an early speed duel, this guy might just sweep in late and pick up some pieces. Don’t toss this horse out, simply because he has no off track experience. He might just be able to handle these sloppy conditions in New York this weekend. (7) PUSH ON A STRING (IRE) ** 9/2 ** Owner: Jake Stables (Montjeu x Ocean Breeze (Distorted Humor)) Push On A String only has two career dirt starts coming in here to New York this weekend. You would think that would hurt his chances here, but he’s one of your two co-morning line favorites here, along with Master Seeker. But look what this guy did in his only two dirt starts. He popped a couple of monster speed figures (105 and 99). He absolutely smoked an allowance field two starts back, when he popped that 105 speed figure, and in his other dirt start he finished second in the 9 furlong listed Jimmy Two Times Special Stakes. Those turf starts are particularly important for this guy. He has shown he can get the distance, running a couple of 9.5 furlong races and a 10 furlong race on the turf. But it’s those two dirt starts that really stick out here for Push On A String. No off track experience for the colt by Montjeu who runs for Jake Stables. No worries there. This guy can get this distance, and it’s little wonder that he’s one of your 9/2 favorites in this spot. Better keep your eye on this guy. If he runs back to that 105 speed figure two starts back, he could be your winner here. He’s out of a Distorted Humor mare, so that reinforces his distance capability. I like this guy a lot, a whole lot. (8) BIG HEAVY (JPN) 9/1 Owner: Back To Business (Silver Charm x Carson City x Bold Ruler) Big Heavy is another Japanese-bred in this race. He’s a big gray colt by Silver Charm, and his scratch-breeding has Carson City and Bold Ruler back there. You would think he’s got a lot of early speed, with Carson City and Bold Ruler back there behind Silver Charm in that pedigree, but he really doesn’t. He likes to rate just off the pace, and strike quickly late. He’s got three wins in his nine career starts, but one of them was a win in a 7-furlong listed stakes in Kentucky in February. Two starts back, he slammed into a wall when he hit graded company for the first time in the Grade 3 8.5 furlong Gary Asher Memorial, where he finished well beaten in that race. He stepped up in distance last time out in the 9 furlong Spoken For Dirt Route listed stakes in Nebraska. He finished fourth there, and distance might seem to be a question mark for this guy. Still, his speed figures have been more than decent in his last couple of outings. He popped a career-high 99 last time out, and that’s always encouraging to see. But he’s facing a tough distance for him, as well as sloppy track conditions. How that will play is anyone’s guess here. (9) KAYADEROSSERA (KY) 10/1 Owner: Right At Home Stables (Candy Ride x Sadler’s Wells x Buckpasser) This is one of three entries from Right At Home Stables, who really loaded up in this race. They’ve got horses breaking from the 1,2, and 9 holes this weekend here in New York, so you would think they’ve got a pretty good shot at taking this race down, having three of the eleven entries in the Grade 2 Captain Hook. This entry, Kayaderossera, won three of his first five career starts. Then he hit graded company, and it’s been a bit of a struggle for him in his last two outings. He finished pretty well beaten in both the Grade 3 Gary Asher Memorial Stakes and the Grade 1 Wooden Indian Derby Lock Prep in his last two starts. He’s a scratch-bred son of Candy Ride with Sadler’s Wells and Buckpasser in his pedigreee. That means a lot of stamina. He’s only been in one off-track start in his career, which is one more than a lot of these, and he handled that course listed as good pretty well in his second career start. He finished third in that mile allowance event here at New York Race Course last year. If you like the horses-for-courses angles, then this is your guy. He’s run every single one of his races right here in New York, and he loved this track, up until he hit graded company. This guy probably wants a lot more distance, and he’ll also probably like this sloppy course this weekend. He might be a live long shot here in this spot. Might want to throw this guy in on a few of your exotic tickets if you’re playing this race. I have a feeling he’s ready to throw a big one here. (10) MASTER SEEKER (KY) ** 9/2 ** Owner: Kobras Stables (Medaglia D’Oro x The Seeker (Seeking The Gold)) If this were a fast track in New York this weekend, I would probably say Kobras Stables has this one in the bag, hands down. This is a pretty impressive son of Medaglia D’Oro out of the Seeking The Gold mare The Seeker, and he has done very little wrong in his races. If he can somehow pull out a win here in New York this weekend, in these sloppy conditions, this guy just might be in the Grade 1 New Yorker. He’s not that far out in the rankings, being ranked 47th in the three year old colts dirt route division. And a big win here might encourage his connections to throw him in the third leg of the Triple Crown. He’s got ten career starts, and he’s won three so far. Really, his only bad race was the Grade 3 Good Cow, where he was ninth. But he’s been throwing some pretty monster speed figures his last four starts (97, 96, 99 and 99). And look who he was racing against in those starts, especially the last two. In the Gary Asher Memorial Stakes, he was on the lead the first three calls before finishing fourth there, behind the winner Avenged. Then last time out, he tried the Grade 1 Arkansas Juvenile, a Derby Lock Prep. Again, he was on the lead for the first three calls, before he succumbed to million dollar earner Time For Buda, a very impressive colt. Master Seeker finished third in that Arkansas Juvenile race, and he’s got an absolute ton of speed. If he can get out in front of this field and prevail over this quagmire of a course here in New York this weekend, he might just be the one. A very serious horse here. Indeed. (11) SUMMER ENDS (KY) 16/1 Owner: Supertaffy Stables (Summer Bird x Sinicism (Ghostzapper)) Summer Ends is the long shot in this race. But look at the connections here for this son of Summer Bird. This colt is owned by Supertaffy, who spots her colts well. Remember how she won the third leg of the Triple Tiara last year with a filly by the name of Diamond Spirit? Well, she might just have a long shot here that’s very live here in Summer Ends. His speed figures were really not all that, compared to most of these, in his first five starts. Then last time out, he caught a sloppy track in the 9.5 furlong listed stakes Enough Come Dirt Route in Kansas, and look what he did there. This colt who had never run anything higher than an 86 speed figure in his first five races suddenly busted out big time, when he popped a 99 on that sloppy track last time out. He’s a very live shot here at 16/1, and he’s shown he can get the distance. Throw out those first five races of his. Just focus on that long listed stakes race his last time out, and that monster speed figure jump he showed on that very sloppy track in Nebraska. Watch this guy. He’s probably sharp, and he loves the slop. Throw some money down on Summer Ends here, even if it’s only to place and show. You could pick up a lot of dough on this guy, especially at 16/1 in a race where almost anything can happen. This guy could really light the board up if he fires like he did last time out in the slop. Betting: With the sloppy track, who knows? These are the kinds of races I stay away from at the betting windows. Sloppy track, most have very few starts. Only a few of these have even been on a good course, and only one horse here has been on anything close to the quagmire you’ll see in New York this weekend. This is one race you want to be really careful with, if you’re betting. That #10 horse Master Seeker looks like a beast here. But I’ll take a long look at two horses here in a 7-11 Vegas exacta box. #7 Push On A String looks like a killer here, too. And that long shot on the outside, #11 Summer Ends, just loved the sloppy track last time out. So, don’t break the bank on this one, but those might be three horses you want to look at here in New York this weekend. Might want to throw some place and show money on that #11 horse, Summer Ends, at 16-1. He loves the slop. Might pay very well to place and show. And it could win the whole thing.