Jailitis 2/1 Favorite In Gr. 2 Derby Stud Trail

It’s a pretty light field for the $250,000 Grade 2 Derby Stud Trail in Ireland this weekend, but one of the six colts here will be looking to join a few million dollar earners in Derbyfever who in the past have won this 10-furlong test on the turf for the three-year-old young guns.

And you’ll more than likely see one of these running in some pretty big races down the road, if the histories of this race’s winners are any indication of what they’ve gone on to do after winning here in Ireland this weekend.

Perfect Stranger won the initial running of this race in 2009, and he went on to nab about $1.7 million on the turf in his career before he retired.

Then, in 2010, it was Hacker’s Manifesto who took down the win here in Ireland, and he’s still active and chipping away, with $1 million in earnings.

And, last season, you had a couple big monsters facing off here in this race in Ireland, the lightest field in the history of the race. Only four horses went to post here last season, but Blast Offf would just edge out Dynajinsky here in last year’s version of the race. So far, Blast Offf has about $1.7 million in earnings, and Dynajinsky has accrued about $1.6 million in earnings.

About three or four of these are coming out of a common race, the Grade 1 Japanese 2000 Guineas, including your 2/1 morning line favorite, Jailitis, a German-bred son of Monsun.

It’s amazing that this field is so light, given the propensity that it has to launch the careers of some million dollar earners, but here are the six runners for the 2012 version of the Grade Derby Stud Trail at Ireland Race Course, at ten furlongs on the turf course, for three year olds.

 1     CHANCE IT AGAIN  (IRE)        5/2

Owner: Novajoe Stables       (Shamardal x Volatile Market (Kingmambo))

Chance It Again is based on the Kingmambo hemare Volatile Market, who was a stakes-placed turf router back in the day. The three year old son of Shamardal is coming off his first stakes win in the 9.5-furlong Zz Zzar Turf Route, a listed stakes in Victoria, where he popped the first 100 speed figure of his career. He’s coming up a bit in distance, and he really should like this field a lot. He’s ranked #60 in the three year old colts classic turf division, and his connections are hoping he’ll probably use this as a springboard to bigger and better things. Chance It Again has hit the track ten times, and he’s won three starts, while he’s finished second or third six other times. Pretty nice strike rate for the son of Shamardal. Keep your eye on this guy. He should be about the mark in this field.

 2     MIKETHEPOSTMAN  (KY)     4/1

Owner: Right At Home Stables      (Henrythenavigator x Track Fact Salute (Dynaformer))

Mikethepostman was cruising right along in allowance company the early part of his career, before he drew into the Grade 1 Japanese 2000 Guineas last time out. He was in way over his head with that bunch, finishing seventh there, but he should find this field a bit more to his liking. He’s 4/1 in this spot, and if he can bounce back from that seventh place finish in the Japanese 2000 Guineas, he should be right there when these colts hit the finish line in Ireland this weekend. He’s pretty lightly raced, with only seven starts and a couple of wins, and that could be a huge factor in his success here. He’s fresh, and he’s ready to roll, and with all that blue blood flowing in his veins, this guy fits the bill here in the Derby Stud Trail. He’s looking to break the 100 speed figure mark for the first time in his young career. Mikethepostman could deliver the mail this weekend for you.

 3        CADET STARS  (IRE)           7/1

Owner: Cadet Stables (Sea The Stars x Dansili x Deputy Minister)

The scratch-bred son of Sea The Stars will be making only his sixth career start here in Ireland this weekend. He’s the longest shot in the field, but he’s only 7/1. He’s got Dansili and Deputy Minister back there in his pedigree, which means he should be pretty quick. That hasn’t been showing up in his running lines–until his last start, that is. He stayed close to the early leaders there in his first stakes try, the 9-furlong St-Prix Zeus in Greece, where he finished second there. He popped the highest speed figure of his career in that race (93). With only five career starts and a career-high 93 speed figure, that’s probably why he’s the longest shot in this field. But Caded Stars is quick, he’s on the improve, and you wouldn’t want to totally discount this guy’s chances here. He’s lightly raced, he’s been making great progress, and he’ll probably get loose on the lead here early. Can they catch him, if he does make the lead early? That’s the question for this quick son of Sea The Stars. He has finished either first or second in his last four starts, so don’t be surprised if you see him around the mark this weekend.

 4      AURRESKU  (KY)                9/2

Owner: Rafa Stables     (Midshipman x Zarallana (El Prado))

Aurresku is the most heavily raced of all of these here in the Grade 2 Derby Stud Trail this weekend. He has got 13 career starts, and it looked like the son of Midshipman was possibly headed for an appointment with destiny and the Bluegrass Derby, when he was running on the dirt as a two year old. I have a horse who raced against this guy, in fact, when he finished fourth in the Grade 3 Charcoal Breeders’ Cup as a two year old, and Aurresku looked really impressive in that race. He had just come off third and second place finishes in the Grade 2 Stanford and the Grade 3 Buckeye Juvenile, respectively, back then. When he turned three, his connections, Rafa Stables, turned him loose on the turf, where he’s won three of his five starts there. He also comes out of the Grade 1 Japanese 2000 Guineas race last time out. Two starts back he popped a career-high 99 speed figure in a listed stakes win in Connecticut, the 9-furlong Forty Wool Turf Route. He showed a lot of speed there, and he just got up at the wire to win by half a length. If this guy can run back to that start, Aurresku could be really dangerous in this spot. He’s coming off a tough outing in that Japanese 2000 Guineas race, but he fits pretty well with this bunch, as he looks for his first graded win ever.

 5    JAILITIS  (GER)      2/1

Owner: Jake Stables         (Monsun x Global Currency (Montjeu))

Jake Stables is a pretty hot barn, with a strike rate of nearly 22 percent winners and over 50% in-the-money earners. It’s little wonder that they’ve got the favorite in this race in Jailitis, a three-year-old German-bred son of Monsun. He has been throwing some extremely consistent speed figures in his brief career. Jailitis has been ever so close to breaking the 100 speed figure mark so many times in his career. He won a couple of big-money allowance events in New South Wales and Dubai, right before he faced graded stakes company two starts back. He finished third in the Grade 3 Manatee Classic in New Zealand. But if you watch that race, you’ll see he didn’t miss by very much. He lost by 1/4 of a length there in a blanket photo finish at the wire. After that race–like a few others here–he was shipped north to Japan, where he tried his luck in the Grade 1 Japanese 2000 Guineas. He finished sixth there, best of all of these in this race who tried that bunch. While he has yet to break the magical 100 speed figure mark, he’s probably one of the most consistent in this field in Ireland this weekend. He’s 2/1 here, and he looks like the guy they’ll have to beat. He loves to come from far off the pace, and there is quite a bit of speed in this race. Look for Jailitis to lay back early and pounce late, and if he can catch a good trip, this might be your winner here. He’s a serious horse who should go on to do some pretty serious things in the future. Watch this guy not only this weekend, but also in the future. I have a feeling you’ll be hearing his name in quite a few big events down the road.

 6     MASTER OF MAYHEM  (NZ)         5/1

Owner: Shamrock Stables     (Mastercraftsman x All Gold (Sadler¡¯s Wells))

Shamrock Stables sends out Master Of Mayhem, a son of Mastercraftsman, who is out of the Sadler’s Wells mare All Gold. He’s really got some blue blood back there on his dam side, with Sadler’s Wells and Kingmambo, and this is one of only two colts in this field who’s coming off a win last time out. He’s been running mostly mile events in his brief career. In fact, all of his starts came at a mile, until last time out, when he scored in the 9-furlong listed stakes Royal Story Turf Route in Puerto Rico on April 7. This guy is red hot, with three wins in his last four starts, and he’s hard to figure at 5/1. It seems like his odds should be a lot lower. Master Of Mayhem is taking a step up in distance, but that shouldn’t be such a big deal for him. And he is coming off a big win.  But 5/1?  I don’t think so. This guy is a lot better than that, and he might prove exactly that this weekend. He hasn’t broken the 100 speed figure mark yet, but he has been getting awfully close. He popped a career-high 96 last time out in Puerto Rico, but when you look at his past performance charts, you’ll see a gradual increase in speed figures with each and every one of his starts coming in here. That’s what you like to see in a colt. He has been superbly conditioned and spotted by MTK, his connections, and he could be really dangerous if he can handle the ten furlongs. He  has done nothing wrong yet, and I doubt you’ll see him do very little wrong this weekend. Watch him. He could be ready to bust out with that first 100-plus speed figure mark here in the Derby Stud Trail. My money’s on this guy.

And now, Emmy’s Plays Of The Day!  (Brought to you by BountEE, proud sponsor of the No-Fun-League (Flag Football Version.))

Let’s box the  5  –  6  exacta for $100 (total cost: $200).

And let’s throw $200 to place on  6  (Master Of Mayhem) (total cost $200).

And if you’re feeling frisky, why not throw a $20 trifecta wheel of  5,6 / 5,6 / 1,2,3,4  (total cost: $160), while you’re on the betting page?  Just go to the betting page, and put 5 and 6 on the top row, 5 and 6 on the second row, and 1,2,3,4 on the third row.  It’s easy.  I’ll have you in Gambler’s Anonymous in no time flat.

Total outlay: $560.  And if nothing else hits, that $200 place bet on Master Of Mayhem should break you just about even, or maybe it’ll just break you.

Just a hunch. I don’t do this too often, giving out my hot tips. But I do bet a lot, although you definitely wouldn’t want to have been behind me last weekend, when I was betting on the real-life Kentucky Derby.  My Visa card and I were all over Gemologist, like white on rice.  Big, big ouch there, gang. Shhhh. Do NOT tell you-know-who, okay?  He’ll find out next month, anyway, when the Visa statement comes in.  I just have a feeling these two colts breaking from the outer barriers are going to be finishing first and second here in Ireland this weekend.