It’s a lock for the Derby in the Wooden Indian
It’s a high stakes weekend in NY with the Wooden Indian GI, which is a win and you’re in Derby prep race. The race will be contested by fourteen three year olds over a fast nine furlong dirt course, with a $750,000 purse. The entrants run the gamut from allowance winners to grade one winners, it’s anyone’s race. With just a month to the Derby this is their last chance to lock up enough points to make it to the big dance.
TOP FIVE RECORDS (Conduit X Storm Cat X Alydar) lenny14 15/1
Pros: Comes into this race off of four consecutive wins. Winner at this distance, with top speed of 98.
Cons: Not much graded race experience.
Analysis: It took it awhile for Top Five Records to start winning, the main issue was he didn’t care for the turf despite his pedigree. Since the switch to the dirt he’s grown leaps and bounds, but it still seems like he may be behind some of the others yet. In his graded win he jumped nearly ten points in speed figures, which could mean it’s time for a bust of a race. He will be sitting close to the pace only a couple lengths back and move after the third call.
MOONLIT PASS (Unbridled’s Song X Seeking The Gold X A.P. Indy) undercover 14/1
Pros: Deep closer in a race with a lot of close to the pace horses, which may push the pace faster.
Cons: Only stakes placed, in a restricted stake at that.
Analysis: In his two graded stakes runs he’s been beaten fairly easily. The race at a mile he closed to lose by less than three, but in his last start he lost by over eight. Moonlit will need to step it up a notch to close In on what should be a fairly quick pace. If he doesn’t make his move soon enough he’ll never see the winner’s circle.
ELITE SATURDAY (Any Given Saturday X Strike The Gold X Seattle Slew) eliteracing 14/1
Pros: Top speed figure is a 99. Two race winning streak. Winner at 9.5 furlongs, a race longer than today’s race.
Cons: Never run in a graded stakes. Short turn around on races.
Analysis: Coming into this race off of two wins, with gradually increasing speed figures is a plus. However, he’s never faced these types of horses before. Saturday will be sitting towards the middle of the pack about a half dozen off the pace, and close quickly about half way through if he’s going to do anything today.
BRAGGING RIGHTS (Pulpit x Storm Cat X Unbridled) mtkdynasty 5/1
Pros: Grade three winner, that is grade one placed. 9 for 10 lifetime in the money. 102 is his best speed figure. Ranked as the 7th dirt route horse.
Cons: Off the board finish was in the BB Juvenile, will face some familiar faces. Hasn’t run in a grade one over a fast course.
Analysis: Bragging Rights likes to give his trainer a heart attack every time he runs, as he will close from the back of the pack, and just narrowly get up at the wire for the win. Of course with this type of horse you need to have some pace to run at, and hope that it’s the fading type of pace. His running style makes it seem like the added distance should be no problem. Only downside is he hasn’t faced grade one competition over a fast and fair track.
LINDY HOP (Awesome Again X Street Cry X Nijinsky II) super11 8/1
Pros: Winner at this distance last time out, posting a 101. Ranked 1st in fillies dirt route. Winner of last year’s BB Juvenile Filly.
Cons: Filly facing the boys for the first time.
Analysis: The major issue at hand with Lindy Hop is that she’s a filly facing the boys. She doesn’t need to win today to make it into the Derby, but needs to show well enough today to prove she belongs with the boys. Lindy Hop has two running styles, one up close to the pace, which she has a hard time getting to the wire first on those days. The other is laying a few lengths further back and closing starting at the second call and drawing off at the wire. If she can take on the boys she certainly has the speed figures to get her to the winner’s circle.
OPEN PIT TED (Tapit X Medaglia D’Oro X Deputy Minister) refinement 12/1
Pros: BB Juvenile Colts winner, proven against this type of field. Ranked 6th among three year old routing colts.
Cons: Has not won since BB Juvenile win in November. Best speed figure is a 98. Ran poorly at 9.5 furlongs two back.
Analysis: One of the top two year olds of 2010, is having difficulty finding his stride as a two year. Did he peak as a two year old? Ted generally likes to sit a couple lengths off the pace, slowly making a move throughout the race. Ted is also capable of wiring a field in a paceless scenario. I honestly don’t like what I’m seeing from him, and will pass him by at the betting window.
BIFFER ALLEY (Big Brown X Distorted Humor X Lyphard) winstar 6/1
Pros: Never off the board in seven starts. 103 is best speed figure. Graded stakes placed
Cons: Restricted stake winner, winless since November 2010.
Analysis: Biffer has been running evenly lately, starting to close from a few lengths back then evening out and falling back again. Has run on the pace and just off of it, so if others don’t go for the lead he may acquire it. No matter what position in the field he takes, he will need to have a good closing kick to get a piece of the prize.
TROUBLED PAST (A.P. Indy X Nijinsky II X Alydar) lawyerron 9/1
Pros: Never off the board in four starts. 98 career best speed figure.
Cons: No stakes or graded stakes wins.
Analysis: One of the speed horses in the race, but has not won beyond a mile, or in a stake. In his graded stake effort he didn’t make the lead, and faded going eight and a half furlongs. Today’s race is longer so questions will be raised about the distance. He is also very lightly raced and moving up in ranks before completing the previous rank. It will take a huge effort by him to win today.
HUSSONFORT (Husson X Forty Niner X Wild Again) viperfour 17/1
Pros: 98 top speed figure.
Cons: Never run in a graded stakes. Winless in over six months.
Analysis: Hussonfort has been struggling in listed stakes, and is now being asked to run against possible derby starters. He runs from the back of the pack and attempts to close, but hasn’t shown the proper turn of foot as of late. His last race was ten point jump in speed figures, but only got him a listed win. Generally people look for a horse in better form to bet on in a grade one race.
MORE THAN A JET (More Than Ready X Sadler’s Wells X Forty Niner) jetman 8/1
Pros: 101 career best speed figure at this distance, which made him graded placed. Eight for ten in the money.
Cons: Listed stakes winner against small field. Comes into the race off a short rest.
Analysis: Jet has been running a good race then a not so good race then a good race again, which means this race may be poor.
KING VICTOR (Admire Moon X Vindication X Rainbow Quest) tampadowns 22/1
Pros: Grade two winner, two for three in routes. Turf to dirt switch. He has been in the money five of six times on the dirt.
Cons: 96 speed figure is career best. Winless since November. Comes into the race off of a 66.
Analysis: Won three in a row before being given a break to get ready for a three year old campaign. However he ran a very even race never becoming a factor in the race. The last race could be a toss out as he’s never been on turf before. Still being off form trying to win a Derby lock will be a tough feat. Sitting at number 18 for dirt routes he’ll need a top three to get into the big dance.
A grade one may be pushing it. He needs the win to get to the big dance. His running style varies, usually he’s very close to the pace, but last time out he dropped more than six lengths behind to close in for third, but still beaten over seven lengths. With time I think he could be a nice horse.
BLIND SONNY (Rock Hard Ten X A.P. Indy X Awesome Again) onalark 6/1
Pros: 104 top speed figure. Blind has never finished off the board in five starts.
Cons: Inexperienced/lightly raced. Only graded placed, not a graded winner.
Analysis: Blind Sonny has had a great start to his young career, quickly rising through the ranks. The fact that he hasn’t had any horrible race, makes me wonder when he’s due to bounce. He took a step back in speed figures in his last race. He’s been running tough with other graded winners but keeps getting shut out of the winner’s circle. To make it to the big dance he’ll need a huge run today. Look for Blind to come from the middle or back of the pack and make his biggest move after the third call.
ADMITTEDLY (Dansili X Seeking The Gold X Vice Regent) serenasong 12/1
Pros: 100 speed figure is his best to date. Multiple stakes winner. On the board in eight of ten starts. 1 for 1 over the route distance.
Cons: Never run in a graded stakes race.
Analysis: With only one run going over a sprint distance it’s hard to confirm that he will keep growing as he races each time thereafter. Admittedly did improve his best speed figure by 12 when routing, so it does seem like he wanted some more distance. However, it is a big jump from a 15k stake to a win and you’re in derby prep race. Admittedly runs fairly close to the pace and closes around the third call.
STREETS OF NOWHERE (Awesome Again X Seeking The Gold X A.P. Indy) saintly271 16/1
Pros: Six for seven lifetime in the money. Comes into this race off of two wins in a row, at this distance.
Cons: Never run in a graded stakes race. 92 is his best speed figure.
Analysis: Three of his four wins have been on the lead. The problem with him being the pace horse is he hasn’t shown much speed yet, with a 92 being his best showing, It’s hard to say if he’ll be able to pick up the pace and hold off the closers at the end of the race. Needs a win to make it to the big dance. Will get tested well beyond what he’s used to.
That’s this year’s Wooden Indian field. From my point of view it is not a very strong grade one field, the grade one winners are on a downslide, and there are allowance horses that are showing potential for growth, but no real stand out star in my opinon. My picks are Blind Sonny, Lindy Hop, and Bragging Rights. Good luck to all, may your horses run fast, and return safely to their stables.