Dancin In Seattle Back Off Of One Week Rest In The Canada Turf (G1)
There haven’t been many predictable things in most divisions this year, but one thing you could count on, with reliable certainty, was that a G1 stake over 12 furlongs belonged to one of five horses: Sunnybank Memorial, Rain God, Allied Assault, Bristol Rovers, or Horseshoe Bay. That won’t be the case today. $1,000,000, 12 furlongs over firm turf, and no big horse to spoil the show. Most of the top contenders today have spent the majority of their year chasing the big names listed above, and are looking for a chance to step into the light with a strong showing here. While a trip in the Breeders’ Bowl is seeming unlikely with the big dance just two weeks off, this is nonetheless a worthy consolation prize, and would rank as the crowning achievement for many of these runners.
Let’s take a look at the field:
Grade I
A mile and one half
Firm Turf
$1,000,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | DRUNKEN CAT | 6/1 | Making just his thirds lifetime start over the lawn, he’s still winless over the surface, but gave a good account when third last time out in a G3. It wasn’t encouraging how he was retreating in the stretch, so he’ll need a big reversal to get on track. Can’t get a solid read on his preferred style, as he seems to be able to do a little bit of everything, but I’m still not sold on his abilities as a turf runner after one run in which he didn’t disappoint but was far from impressing at the same time. | |||
2 | JUPITER’S MOONS(IRE) | 6/1 | For the #2 ranked 3yo turf horse over 12+ furlongs, he has had a rough campaign. Most of his time this year has been devoted to chasing Horseshoe Bay, to whom he was most recently 3rd in the Owners Stakes (the pair was split by a colt named Princeton Lights, who has failed to hold up the form of that race), and must have been running for the hills when he traded out Horseshoe Bay for an even more formidable opponent in Sunnybank Memorial when 6th in the Man Of War stakes last time out in his first start against older horses. He should be prevelant from the start, tracking Dancin in Seattle the whole way, and the son of Galileo has a serious chance to finally take down a big one this term, especially if Dancin In Seattle starts to get leg-weary from his demanding schedule of late. | |||
3 | STORMY GOLD | 33/1 | Will probably be in for a rude awakening when it becomes apparent that the speed needed to clear expensive claimers or cheap allowance company is nowhere near the speed you need to clear a field of G1 males early in a race. Its conceivable that she could contribute marginally to the pace of this race, to the possible detriment of Dancin In Seattle, but fate will ultimately see her putting up more of a fight for last place than for the win, and probably belongs in allowance company against her own gender. | |||
4 | SEAT BACK FORWARD | 8/1 | Millionaire broke through in a big way last time out, winning by 4+ lengths, and I like the style switch; he’s much more effective as a closer than as a speed type, though he may not appreciate losing a quarter mile from his last one here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one making his presence known through the stretch, but we’ll see if that can get him into the winners’ circle. The hunch here is that he’s more of a threat to fill the bottom end of the trifecta. | |||
5 | 22/1 | Talented runner, and I supposed this is a weaker G1 field than he could have found elsewhere, but with a career best effort he’s still only looking at minor awards. He could conceivably move forward in a huge way off of his last start, and he picks up what should be a much appreciated furlong of ground today, so he can’t be completely forgotten for those of you that love a longshot. | ||||
6 | NEWBERRY | 10/1 | Fantastically consistent, but consistently just a cut below the speed numbers that it will probably take to win this race (~100). Nothing to recommend him over some of the bigger contenders here except his consistency; you know he’ll run a number between 92-99, but if he can get over the upper limit is something that has to be seriously questioned. | |||
7 | ED’S | 61/1 | I’m not sure what the motivation is behind putting a horse beaten by a sum total of 70 ½ lengths over his last three starts in ungraded stakes and allowance company into G1 stakes company, but the best that can be hoped for with this one is that he doesn’t get in the way horses with a shot to win. | |||
8 | BIGTATE CHILD | 49/1 | Comes in off of a long break, but this one is basically in the same boat as Ed’s | |||
9 | SWINGSHIFT SAL | 9/2 | The morning line favorite is a G1 winner this term, and though he’s seen his share of ups and downs since that G1 win, he just seems like his bottom is above many of his opponent’s top. Barring a disaster, he’ll be top five, but he is stretching out to 12 furlongs, and we’ll have to see how he responds to that. He handled it fine last year but hasn’t seen that much ground in a long time. | |||
10 | DANCIN IN | 5/1 | This one wheels back in one week; one can only supposed that he came back to the barn sharp after being thrashed for the 2nd consecutive time by Sunnybank Memorial. Two defeats to the division leader is enough to make anyone thing twice about a Breeders’ Bowl spot, and it’s a safe assumption at this point that whatever chance Dancin In Seattle may have had in the Breeders’ Bowl is now effectively gone; running 3 races in 4 weeks would be overly ambitious for any horse, especially when that 3rd race would be against the deepest field ever assembled. All that said, he has a big shot here if he’s not zapped from his effort last week. He’ll receive pressure up front, and may be getting a little weary late like he’s done in his last few races, but I’m thinking that its more likely that he’ll replicate his run in the G1 Canada Gold Rush Stakes, which was run over this track and distance. He set the early pace there before fading to third, but still stuck around for a piece of the action. May find Jupiter’s Moons a little bit too much to handle if that one can track the pace that Dancin In Seattle will be pressed through if he’s asked the tough question at the top of the stretch, and while one more horse may manage to run by him, he’s classy enough that he won’t completely cough it up against these. | |||
11 | 8/1 | By the recently pensioned Mt. Livermore, who is more typically regarded as a sire of sprinters (but, obviously, has been known to get a little bit of everything), this one is in the form of his life and looks to be finally at a distance he’ll relish. Only concern is that his only recent tries in graded company have ended poorly; needs to hold his form from lesser races as he tests tougher water to have a shot here. | ||||
12 | TREASURE OF ARMANA(IRE) | 6/1 | He’s capable of a big one on occasion, but unfortunately, his last one may have been the big one that he would have done better to save for today. He won a G3 race fairly convincing last time out over Drunken Cat (see above), and has the brilliant 21% jock N. Linville aboard, but his performances suggest he’s still likely to turn in a speed number somewhere in the 90s, instead of a comparable number to the 105 he ran last time out, and that probably won’t be good enough here. Will need quite a riding miracle from Linville to get him home on top. | |||
13 | 8/1 | His form has been going the wrong way in his last two races, and if he were likely to run near his peak, he’d be dangerous, but he needs at least two races to work up to that kind of an effort. A reasonable improvement still puts him mid-pack with a 95 speed number. |
Predictions: The pace will be hot, and Dancin In Seattle is classy enough to send the other speed horses packing, but that’s going to leave Jupiter’s Moons in a brilliant position chasing a weary leader as they turn for home. I’m willing to forgive Jupiter’s Moons his last two and pick him to win here (If I’m not mistaken, he was picked in the BTB to win the Man Of War as well, so hopefully we here at the BTB aren’t cursing this talented colt!). Newberry seems to be in a great position to run on for 2nd, and Dancin In Seattle is good enough to hold for 3rd if his busy schedule doesn’t catch up to him. If he starts to feel the effect of last week, I like Seat Back Forward as a viable alternative at the bottom end of the trifecta.