Who Will Crack the Walnut?

While some of the really bigwigs are resting for the Breeders’ Bowl in two weeks’ time, California has still managed to snatch up some quality horseflesh for the Grade II Walnut BB Mile on the turf.  Anyone three-and-up can and will play:

Alberta Gold               Bertaal                        11/1     Bold of a 3yo filly to take on older males, but coming off a G1 win, she can afford to be bold.  That race was a lifetime best for her, though, and was against girls her own age.  She showed that she’s capable of big things, but I’m leery of backing her against older boys at this point.  On the plus side, she has a superb rider aboard.

Grimnosh                    Knightmare     8/1       Regularly hits the board in these races, but hasn’t won in ages.  Is shortening up a smidge here, will that be enough to let this frontrunner hang on to the lead all the way to the wire?  Will have an impact on the race as he fights to the front, but I suspect he’s just a little outclassed by the best here.

Jimmy the Greek       Smokeglack     8/1       Red Ransom colt has really been off his A-game in recent months.  Coming off a layoff here.  Probably at least needs a tuneup and then it’ll be time to see whether he can regain his former turn of foot.  Has a few things to prove before he looks like a horse worth backing again.

Mizzen Dizzie             Spain               7/2       Consistently a factor in graded affairs of late, he recently won the Maudlin Cup at this distance.  Only two weeks off here, but I don’t see any reason to expect that to be a problem.  I’d be more worried if he’s headed to the BB, which would give him another short two-week break.  For this race, though, this frontrunner is looking very tough.  Expect him to be right in the mix.

Gold Inferno               Correction       11/1     3yo ran an outstanding race two back in the Grade 3 Violin against his elders, but failed badly next time out when he tried graded company again.  The Violin was his first turf race in quite a while, and it looks like he got a boost from the switch that didn’t repeat in his next outing.  Based on that I don’t expect too much of  him here, though he’s certainly shown that his best race is good enough to take on this field.

Union Colony              Luckyhobo      24/1     Best races are on off tracks, other than that his races just barely break into the 90s.  That won’t cut it here.

Twice Told Tale         Nextbonus       7/2       Veteran of 32 starts is coming off 5 straight wins, though none of those were in graded company.  He’s shown in the past, however, that he can compete at this level.  Watch for him to come from several lengths off the pace.  If he’s still up to graded competition, he’ll be right there and will do some damage.

Hail the Leaf              Sdmf1              19/1     On the board 6 of 7 starts, but this is a much tougher crew than this sophomore is used to.  From his times, I don’t really expect him to be near the front in this one.  Nice colt who may have stepped up a little too quickly here.

A.P. Poll                      N2racing         5/1       Danzig colt has been on fire lately, winning 6 of his last 7, but those have all been going a good bit further than this race.  His first few  attempts at a mile weren’t all that encouraging, but he seems to be stepping up his overall game right now, so another attempt is probably in order.  Not really sure what to expect of him here, but he’s certainly been a class act of late.

Back in Your Arms    Iant4                4/1       Classy filly has been phenomenal, winning her last 3 and a Grade I last time out.  She’s been running against the girls and has been just a tick slower than the best races by the best horses here. But she’s not far behind them and the slightest stumble by them, or the slightest extra effort by her, could put her in the winner’s circle.  Pretty decent jock aboard.  Has a very real chance at this race, but so do several others.

I I don’t have any real insights this week – several horses are quite capable of winning and there’s not much that I can see to separate them.  Should be a very exciting race and likely a close finish amongst the top bunch.  Good luck to all the trainers and their horses!