DPCD IX Allied Assault G1
Some of the best distance runners in the game are in this race and with them come some of the best jockeys in the game. Only one horse and one jockey can have their photo taken in the winner’s circle…who will it be?
1. Jewelly 10-1
2010 record 9 races 4-3-0
2010 graded record 3 races 0-1-0
Jewelly gets local jockey T. Kelly (16% win) who had a decent weekend last week picking up a pair of wins, finished second 5 times and third twice. Jewelly is generally a slow starter who can fire things up late in the race. The graded level has proven to be difficult for Jewelly and he just can’t seem to get the job done at this level. He has averaged a speed of 101 in last five starts, lower than many others. I’d shop elsewhere.
2. Naked Boot 6-1
2010 record 9 races 3-2-2
2010 graded record 7 races 2-1-2
After winning a pair of G1 races (Coffeefields Cup & Europe Classic), Naked Boot had nothing left in him in the Andrew Cote Japan Classic, finishing 12th with a speed of 95. The two wins were in speeds of 110 and 112, two of his better speeds. P. Harzheim gets the ride and he’s delivered wins 31% of the time. This horse likes to run on the lead, or be very close to it. Harzheim roded Naked to a third back in June, missing by ½ length in the Longstickgoboom. This time the pair could be the right combination.
3. Remember Pops 8-1
2010 record 10 races 3-2-0
2010 graded record 5 races 0-2-0
Remember Pops usually runs in the middle of the field in the early going, but in the past two starts, he has run 1st or 2nd early on which has resulted in scoring speeds of 110 and 106, his best of this year. These were in a non-graded stake and allowance race. He gets H. Harzheim who has been having a terrific year with 30% of his starts resulting in overtime within the winner’s circle. A change in racing style may just be the ticket for him.
4. Light of Heaven 15-1
2010 record 10 races 3-2-1
2010 graded record 2 races 0-1-0
This 3-year old has started to show something late in this racing season. In his first 7 career races, his top speed was 93. In August, he ascended up to 102 which was the start of four consecutive races over 100 toping out at 107 last month in the Los Angeles Derby where he ran a decent fifth. Light of Heaven’s speed averaged 105 during this span and I don’t expect that he will this race, but he can certainly make a statement, especially with experienced O. A. Haack (31% win) holding the reins.
5. Beware My Fangs 9-1
2010 record 9 races 1-3-2
2010 graded record 6 races 1-2-2
In his last two starts, Beware My Fangs nailed his career two top speeds of 110 and 111 which included his first win in a year (and first career graded win in the Angry Dragon). He has a fine choice in jockey in selecting A. Rolling who has a 30% win record. If he can maintain his recent speeds, he could pick up his second graded win, but it’s tough to keep the speeds up that high.
6. Spur’s Dancer 14-1
2010 record 9 races 4-1-0
2010 graded record 8 races 3-1-0
Spur’s Dancer has had a very checkered 2010 race season. With 4 wins and a place, each of these has happened after Spur put in a poor race. Thus he has been alternating a good race with a disappointing one. His average speed is 100 over his last 5 starts and incorporates this flip-flopping. Jockey Piotorwski (24% win) will be challenged as Spur is coming off a nice second in the Angry Dragon with a speed of 108, and if the pattern holds, this may be the dreadful one.
7. Can I Get Twelve 22-1
2010 record 6 races 3-1-2
2010 graded record 0 races 0-0-0
This is Can I Get Twelve’s first appearance in graded racing and has only 6 career starts! He comes off a pair of 12f races where he finished third in a non-grade stakes race in November with a speed of 112 in a large 15 horse field. This was followed with a nice
Second in a conditional claimer with 107 speed. Can I Get Twelve has a tough task ahead of him and jockey B. Wu (27% win) will need to be patient with this quick learning colt.
8. Title Defense 4-1
2010 record 11 races 4-1-1
2010 graded record 11 races 4-1-1
Title Defense went into a slump from June through early November, finishing in the money once in five starts. At the end of November, Title finished second in the Andrew Cote Japan Classic with a speed of 111 and may be re-establishing himself. Jockey V. Gardner (25% win) has ridden Title three times in the past with a win and a second. Could be a good day for this winner of over $12 million.
9. Atomic Blast 37-1
2010 record 11 races 3-3-1
2010 graded record 11 races 0-0-0
In his last four outings, Atomic Blast has shown improvement as he breached both the 90 speed and 100 speed levels. He looks to be overmatched in this race as he makes his first stakes race appearance, and takes a huge leap from the allowance level Local jockey D. Williams (14% win) seems to be the only one offering his services to this horse and his chances just aren’t glowing.
10. Future Dream 7-2
2010 record 13 races 6-3-2
2010 graded record 8 races 3-2-1
Future Dream is having a great year. Since March, his speeds have all exceeded 100 with the lowest being 105. Future has averaged a speed of 110 in his last 5 races which includes a 112 and a fifth place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Turf. This horse has been on a roll and is a threat not to be taken lightly, especially with the talent of F. Gossett (28% win) handling this colt.
11. Monchavelli 12-1
2010 record 8 races 3-4-0
2010 graded record 1 races 1-0-0
In his last race, Monchavelli won his debut graded race in the Carlton Fisk Monchavelli has been resting for about 2 months for this race after scoring a speed of 106 in the Carlton Fisk. Its been two years since he’s been in a race of 10 or more entrants and he gets local jockey Q. Miller (16% win). I think he has talent but I’d like to see a few more stake races under his belt first.
12. Con’s Sakhee 44-1
2010 record 7 races 3-2-0
2010 graded record 0 races 0-0-0
Con’s Sakhee takes a sizeable jump after winning a moderate level allowance race and breaking through the 100-speed barrier level with a 105. He has one prior graded race, just over a year ago with poor results and that came after shipping overseas. Con’s has been racing exclusively in
13. The Beast Enters 9-1
2010 record 12 races 2-2-1
2010 graded record 5 races 0-0-1
In 18 career graded races, The Beast Enters has won twice. But it’s been a long time since he won a graded race with the last victory coming in February, 2009. Interestingly, this colt comes off an allowance win with a speed of 102 which was on the dirt, his first time ever on this surface. He may have a career opportunity there, we’ll have to wait and see. Anyways, all but 2 of his 2010 turf starts have had speed over 100. His struggles in winning graded races are concerning but he does benefit with the services of S. L. Ledwith (24% win) sitting in the saddle.
I agree with the oddmakers in this race. Future Dream looks to be sitting in a good spot and has been having a fine year. With 3 graded wins already this year would be a great way to finish the year.
I expect another good run from Title Defense. He may be on the road to a comeback and bettors shouldn’t miss out on it.
Naked Boot gets the third selection. I think he was a bit worn out in his last outing after putting in two very sharp speeds. Look for a bounce back in this race.