Delaware Distaff
The second DelPenn race at Delaware is the $2,000,000 Grade II Delaware Distaff, where the big question is whether fifth-ranked Sunset of a Dream can capture her 10th straight win. Recent history of the race says an upset is certainly possible. The last two winners of this event have been sent off at odds longer than 20-1. There are only two such longshots in today’s field. They may deserve a long look. In this very nice field, many of the biggest names in sim-training are here, and all of the fillies and mares are bred from the biggest names in thoroughbred breeding.
Here is a look at the entire field:
PP 1 OILILY JAYCEE(ENG) (MEDICEAN (GB) x DEPUTY MINISTER x RAISE A NATIVE) bred by Wonder3, trained by zeco9 (Zeco Stables Belgium, 12%) Style: P, Odds: 32-1
The odds seem a bit large for this filly, ranked fifteenth among three-year-olds. Most of her wins have been in much shorter races – she’s never gone nine panels before, and her big graded win was in a restricted affair. However, she was close against older last time in her first try against them, and she had a nice closing effort for third two back in the Grade II Gowader at 28-1. Kotton Kandy, the 2008 winner, exited that race (in 2008 of course) with a much less impressive run. Lightly raced and plenty of early speed for a presser like her to sit behind.
PP 2 SUNSET OF A DREAM(IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x DEPUTY MINISTER x SECRETARIAT) bred by stellarolf, trained by bbudgies10 (Bbudgies10 Stables, 12%) Style: P, Odds: 5-1
Hard to find a flaw here. She’s won three straight graded stakes by comfortable margins and her last nine. She hasn’t finished worse than second in well over a year and hasn’t failed to earn a check in, well, forever. So many winning streaks are filled with four-horse fields. That’s not true for this mare. Her last five races have had at least seven runners. She even ran away from a field of 10 boys a few races back. On top of that she should be sitting right behind a monster speed battle. Her lack of Grade I races is the only thing that will probably keep her from an Eclipse nomination.
PP 3 ULTIMATE DIAMOND(KY) (A.P. INDY x STORM CAT x DANZIG) bred by dragster, trained by korn (Qwikvett Stables, 15%) Style: E, Odds: 6-1
Multimillionaire speedster wired a modest field in the Grade II Barbacoa last time and looks for her third straight win here. She has the speed figures to fit here and will get the rail trip against several others vying with her for the early lead. Her good news is that she has prevailed in speed duels before, and even if she does get burned up, she still has a good chance to be part of the exotics. I think I have heard of some of the horses in her pedigree.
PP 4 MINE’S AWESOME(KY) (MINESHAFT x AWESOME AGAIN x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred by barndog, trained by paceman2 (Theatrical Stables, 19%) Style: S, Odds: 21-1
Accomplished trainer has decided this still lightly-raced filly has accomplished all there is to accomplish in allowance company, and it’s time to try stakes. There’s no question she’s responded to Brandog’s training. She’s been first or second in seven of her eight races since joining the barn. The class issue is a hard one to get around, though. It doesn’t help that her recent success has come against small fields featuring mostly claimers. But, again, the last two Delaware Distaffs have been won with odds similar to hers.
PP 5 IMPACTO(KY) (KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by xpletives3 (Xpletives3 Stables, 22%) Style: E, Odds: 9-1
She’s a nose away from having her own five race winning streak. The more important streak here is that she’s established the leads in seven straight races. Almost half the field will be going for that early lead today, so the question is what will they do when challenged. Two races ago Impacto won despite a terrific battle. In fact, until last race, she hasn’t backed off from a challenge since last March. Her speed figures, until last race, are right up there, too. Last race is the rub. Her collapse is very discouraging. She could not prevail in a four-horse field despite a ten length lead. The optimist in me likes to forgive one bad race. The optimist is wrong an awful lot.
PP 6 BOSUNSHINE(ENG) (PIVOTAL(GB) x SEATTLE SLEW x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by huberteng (Boble Stables, 26%) Style: S, Odds: 9-2*
Morning line favorite has had a recent case of seconditis. She hasn’t won in over a year, but she’s been consistently finishing second against stronger fields than this, and she hasn’t been favored in those races. High percentage barn has her very sharp for this. While she might be eighth or ninth early here, she seldom falls far behind, and she’s sure to be passing many horses late. Would surprise no one if she ends up with no one left to pass.
PP 7 ANTIMATTER(KY) (STORM CAT x MISWAKI x DANEHILL) bred and trained by fastnfirm (Fastnfirm Stables, 15%), Style: P, Odds: 9-1.
She’s been no worse than second in nine of her ten starts in dirt races at a classic distance. Her second last time in a four-horse overnight was no disgrace. You’ll be hard pressed to find a tougher four-horse field than that. This is a larger field than she’s faced in a while, and it’s her graded debut. Hence the 9-1 odds, but it certainly looks like she fits at this level. Her speed figures are competitive, and the price is right.
PP 8 CONTROLLED POWER(KY) (POINT GIVEN x TALE OF THE CAT x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by gblstable (Fabman Farms, 16%) Style: E, Odds: 7-1
Yet another filly who will be gunning for the early lead. She’s had the lead at the second call for five straight now, but it looks like gaining that position is going to be a problem against so many seeking that same spot, several of whom appear to be quicker out of the gate. She ran to her long odds last year in this race when she could not get close to the lead early. The good news is that two of her eight wins have come without having the early lead – being close was good enough, and she has a rider that knows how to rate.
PP 9 EIGHTY EIGHT KEYS(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by super14 (Simply….SUPER!, 15%) Style: E, Odds: 9-1
Wired a strong overnight field last time and goes against older for the first time today. The age isn’t an issue; the speed figures aren’t an issue – hers fit. Even the early duel may not be an issue. She impressed last time out with the way she withstood the early challenge yet drew off to a comfortable win. This filly is on the improve, and the longish odds only add to the appeal. She isn’t the most likely to win, but she may be the smart bet.
PP 10 GOT LEMONS(KY) (LEMON DROP KID x AFFIRMED x GRAUSTARK) bred and trained by jrogue3 (Jrogue Stables, 18%) Style: E/P, Odds: 16-1
She made a mild late run against a strong field in the Grade II Jump Town last time. Jrogue is always a top-shelf trainer and all entries from his stables merit consideration. Lemons had been running marathon distances until a couple races ago, and the last two efforts have been her fastest. The figures are still a notch below others – hence the long odds – but she should be able to stay close enough that, if she can rally against this field, the pace scenario is there. Kudos to the agent for local jockey V Parks, who snagged this mount despite the all-star stable of jockeys available.
PP 11 STARLET DREAM(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x GONE WEST) bred and trained by desperado3 (Desperado Stables, 19%) Style: P, Odds: 7-1
Rallied against a slow pace last time in the Grade II Air Line Handicap to finish second and earned the best highest speed figure in this field. The question is if she is due for a bounce here. She did earn a similar figure once before in a sprint allowance, and it’s hard to say whether her next race was a bounce or not. Her figure was considerably smaller, but she made a huge rally against a lone speed runner to finish a close third as the longest shot in the overnight field. Can she rally against a real pace battle? A minor award seems most likely.
PP 12 MEIN TEIL(KY) (MINESHAFT x AWESOME AGAIN x NUREYEV) bred and trained by khalaser (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 26%) Style: E, Odds: 9-1
Veteran mare gets stuck on the outside. She had a huge win last time, but it came at 1-9 in a four horse allowance field. She hasn’t won a stakes race in over a year. She’s one for three in graded stakes and three for three in the money, but her win came against weak Grade III competition and her two thirds came when she was in better form than she is right now. She was the second one entered in the field. I’m guessing this turned out to be a tougher field than Given anticipated. I’ll pass, but the trainer is Given.
Summary. I so want to go with a longshot, and a couple near-longshots are appealing. But I keep coming back to that winning streak. Sunset of a Dream / Antimatter / Eighty Eight Keys.