Delaware Mile attracts large field
It’s a special week in the world this week. Not only is it Christmas, it is also DCPD day, which is also the last race day of the year, which means Eclipse Awards could be decided with the outcome of today’s races. This year’s Delaware Mile G1 (dirt) is worth $3 million dollars, and will be the first run race in Delaware. A classy field of fifteen has been entered, which includes The Beggar King, winner of this year’s BB Dirt Mile.
1 COPPOLA(KY) super29 CD Williams 21/1
Coppola is a four year old son of Ghostzapper, out of Clemenza, a daughter of Storm Cat. As a racehorse Clemenza won three races out of twenty four starts, including one stakes win. As a broodmare she has been bred twice, with Coppola being her only winner, who is also a graded placed stakes winner. Coppola has won eight times in thirty starts, with two places and four shows, earning over three hundred thousand. Coppola comes into this race off of a very disappointing run in the Sterile Mile G1, which many of today’s entrants ran in. Coppola is a speed horse, and was unable to match strides with the speed horses of the Sterile Mile and sound himself too far back, he spit the bit and finished a long ways back. In his last win two back, he wired a field by nearly six lengths at one point, to finish in front by two. The speed figures he posts in allowances and the occasional stakes race make him fit in this race, but the quality he faces when running in those races leaves him outclassed.
2 101141 ISLAND PARADE(ENG) cooldude T Small 10/1
Island Parade is a four year old son of Dansili out of Paradise, a daughter of Gone West. As a racehorse Paradise won fifteen of forty eight starts, and was graded placed. As a broodmare she has produced three foals to race, all winners, with Island Paradise being her only graded winner. Island Paradise has won twelve of twenty eight starts, with four seconds and two shows, earning almost three quarters of a million dollars. He has done the majority of his racing on the dirt but has raced eight times on the turf with just a win, three places and a show, he obviously prefers the dirt. Island Paradise comes into this race off of two poor efforts, resulting in no wins in over three months. Island Paradise was a runner in this year’s BB Dirt Mile, as well as the Sterile Mile, which means he’s run and lost to some of the contenders in today’s race. Earlier this year he won three graded races in a row with a 114, 115 and 117, since then he’s seemed to have tailed off some with just one 110+ finish in his last four races. His running style usually leaves him within just a few lengths of the lead so he’ll need to be in tip top form if he’s going to keep up with a fast pace and close on the leaders to win it. If this was July I may like him more than I do, I don’t like him coming off of two lackluster efforts against similar competition, not sure if he’s up to the task or not.
3 162648 MR. KORN(AUS) korn W McClendon 26/1
Mr. Korn is a four year old son of Commands, out of Halo The Buildings, a daughter of Mr. Prospector. As a broodmare Halo The Buildings was winless in six starts. As a broodmare she has been bred seven times, all have been winners. She is represented by two stakes placed horses, a stakes winner that was also graded placed, and Mr. Korn who is a graded winner. Mr. Korn has raced thirty two times, winning seven of those starts, placing three times, and a show, earning almost a half a million during his career. Mr. Korn’s only stakes win was the grade 2 Hoffa Cup run over nine furlongs, however most of his wins have been at a mile, just running in allowance races. Since that grade two win he has thrown in two true clunkers running only an 89 and a 99. Mr. Korn’s running style seems to be anything from just off the pace to over half a dozen lengths off the pace, which makes it hard to decipher which running style will result in a better performance for him. So if you bet a dollar or two on him if he’s in third for the race you have to wait to tear the ticket up, or if he’s in ninth you’ll have to wait to the finish as well to see if that ticket is cashable. He comes into this race off just a couple weeks rest, it is doubtful that he’s sharp enough to compete with the others in this race.
4 36631 SAHARA DESERT(AUS) godmother H Ross 10/1
Sahara Desert is a five year old son of Encosta De Lago, out of Sahara Gold, a daughter of Storm Cat. As a racehorse Sahara Gold only won once in seventeen starts. As a broodmare she has produced four horses of racing age, all winners, including Sahara Desert, a graded winner. With forty two starts under his belt, he has won nine times, placed six, and finished third seven times earning over $1.3 million. Sahara Desert comes into this race without a win in the past three months, with one in six months, and two within the past year. Four starts back he won the Long Acres Mile, with a 111 by a margin of two lengths. It seem like that race emptied his tank. Now I know triple digit speed figures are nothing to scoff at, but he hasn’t been challenging the eventual winners at all either. In his last race the Sterile Mile (which other horses from this race ran in) he finished fourth, but without gaining much on the leaders, he seemed to be passing the tired horses. Generally Sahara will sit near the pace, usually in third or fourth just a few lengths off the pace. Lately he’s been a little bit further behind and unable to make up ground at the end. I’m not much for horses off their peak, and he doesn’t show signs of turning it around for this race either.
5 187183 TEX CAT(KY) kingranch M Kelly 7/1
Tex Cat is a four year old son of Storm Cat, out of an unnamed Mr. Prospector mare, earning just under half a million dollars in eighteen starts. In those eighteen starts he has won seven times, placing and showing five time each. His only time of finishing off the board was in this year’s BB Dirt Mile. Tex Cat is a grade one placed listed stakes winner who will likely be the pace setter of the race. He is known for his triple digit speed figures that essentially run the competition off their feet. You have to go back to October of 2009 for his last non-triple speed figure performance. However, he is in a bit of a win drought, without a win in over three months, and he comes into this race off of a short rest. After running in the BB Dirt Mile, he ran in an allowance at the beginning of December, so he gets only a couple weeks rest in between races, certainly not running with a full tank. I expect him to bolt from the gate, set a good pace, but be done by six furlongs being leg weary from running so frequently. Strong closers will make it hard for any pacesetter to hold on.
6 17792 MYSENSEOFHUMOR(KY) willyam43 D Evans 10/1
Mysenseofhumor is a five year old son of Distorted Humor, out of Football Madness, and offspring of El Prado. As a racehorse Football Madness only won one of twenty eight starts, then when it came to breeding time there was a “complication” and only one foal was able to be produced, luckily enough a graded winner. In twenty five starts Mysenseofhumor has won eight times, placing once, and finishing third six times, earning over six hundred and fifty thousand. Mysenseofhumor comes into this race off of an impressive grade 3 win in Japan going a flat mile, earning a 113 speed figure. Coming from far back in the pack, he closed quickly between the second and third calls and cruised home by a length. What I like most about this performance was it was about six weeks ago, which gives him plenty of time to recover from that performance. That win however is his only stakes win to date, so this step up to a grade one with proven grade one winners could be a tough feat. His speed figures have been climbing lately so it may not be out of the question. He will have to fight with a lot of closers down the stretch to get it done.
7 153968 BAD’S ROCKET(KY) bad O Osbourne 9/1
Bad’s Rocket is a five year old son of The Cliff’s Edge, out of Born To Be Bad, a daughter of Seattle Slew. As a racehorse Born To Be Bad won four of twenty five starts. As a broodmare she has produced seven horses of racing age, all to win, with a stake placed horse and Bad’s Rocket a graded winner. In thirty four trips to the track Bad’s Rocket has won nine times, finished second seven times, and third once, earning over a half a million dollars. Winless in over three months, he’s only won once in the past year, and that was going nine furlongs, a furlong further than today’s race. Only two of his nine wins have been at a mile, his last win at this distance was in a listed stake a year ago. Rocket comes into this race off of two lackluster finishes. Its hard to call them lackluster when he was gaining ground and finished in triple speed digits, but still well off the board. Looking at his on the board finishes it looks like he likes to be about a half dozen lengths off the pace, lately he’s been getting left at the start and has too much ground to make up to win. Hopefully the trainer has been gate schooling him, or has the jockey lighting a firecracker in him at the break. If he falls too far back in this race he won’t have a chance with it not being a preferred distance and against grade one competition. If the race was going nine or ten furlongs I’d prefer him more.
8 123963 TONYOCITY(KY) tamjennic S Israel 9/1
Tonyocity is a four year old son of Pleasantly Perfect, out of an unnamed Awesome Again mare. In thirty two trips to the track he has earned just short of three quarters of a million dollars, with seven wins, five places and six shows. His last graded win was in January of 2009, and has only won one race in the past twelve months. His last win came in a listed stakes event in October, three races back. He too was a participant in the Sterile Mile, finishing a closing third. Although he hasn’t been winning much lately, in his last five starts he has won once, and finished second or third the other four times, with all those speed figures ranging from 108 to a 114. Tonyocity likes to come from off the pace by a dozen or so lengths, so those speed figures are earned by running hard at the end, however the speed caved in for all those races, none of them were won by wiring the field. Obviously he’s earned a place in this race, but he does face his toughest completion yet with the winner of the BB Dirt Mile heading this field. Many others like to close in this race too, so maybe it will be a blanket finish.
9 147853 SIXTY TWO(KY) nijinsky4 H Wilson 14/1
Sixty Two is a five year old son of Flower Alley, out of Smashingly Cat, a daughter of Storm Cat. On the racetrack Smashingly Cat won three of eighteen starts. As a broodmare she has produced four horses of racing age, with three to win, with a stakes placed horse as well as Sixty Two, a stakes winner. Sixty Two has won fifteen of thirty six starts with seven places and five shows, earning over three hundred thousand in his career. Sixty Two comes into this race off of a four race winning streak, with five wins in his last six starts. One of those races was a listed stakes win, but the other four were open allowance races. All of his speed figures in his last thirteen races have been triple speed figures. Sixty Two prefers to sit towards the back of the pack, usually with two followers behind, but in this race he may find himself a little closer by field position at least because the majority of this field in comprised of closers. He has a slow turn of foot, rarely looking like a winner too far in advance of the finish line. Anyway you put it a stakes winner going head to head with grade one winners will be a tough feat to accomplish.
10 172085 SOCIAL SENSE(KY) spcstable T Crow 19/1
Social Sense is a four year old son of Street Sense, out of Graphic Socialite, a daughter of Sky Mesa. As a racehorse Graphic Socialite won seven of thirty eight starts, including one stake. As a broodmare, she has had three foals, two winners, including the stakes winner Social Sense. In twenty five starts Social Sense has won seven times, placing three times, and finishing third four times, earning more than one hundred fifty thousand. Social Sense comes into this race off of six losses, his last win being in a listed stake going nine furlongs back in April. Social Sense prefers the lead when he’s going to run big, although this race is packed with closers there are some speed horses to contend with in this race. Going off of his recent drought and speed figures I think he’ll get caught behind the leaders, and will get discouraged. Also he seems to like nine furlongs better than eight, his speed is best used over a distance rather than a shorter race. Maybe the trainer should try going longer again with him.
11 176094 MOTION DISMISSED(KY) wtas02 N Linville 6/1
Motion Dismissed is a four year old son of Lawyer Ron, out of Pale Green Rider, a daughter of Storm Cat. Pale Green Rider as a racehorse won eleven of twenty six starts, placing in stakes four times. She has been bred four times, all of her foals have won, and she is represented by two graded winners, including Motion Dismissed. Motion Dismissed has raced twenty six times, winning ten times, placing eight and finishing third twice, earning just under a million. Motion Dismissed comes into this race off of a second place finish to The Beggar King, in the BB Dirt Mile, which snapped a three race winning streak. Motion Dismissed is coming back for vengeance. Motion Dismissed is a run from behind horse, he’ll be half a dozen behind until the third call, so don’t tear up your tickets until he crosses the finish line. He has been consistently been running big numbers, one has to wonder when his tank is going to run out.
12 176077 SEVEN ONE FOUR(IRE) afc3 K Ledwith 7/1
Seven One Four is a four year old son of Dylan Thomas, out of an unnamed Nijinsky II mare. Seven One Four has raced twenty three times, winning eight times, placing four, and finishing third twice, earning just under half a million dollars. First things first, his pedigree to me seems to scream TURF, but in his two tries on the surface he failed to hit the board, but has shown an affinity for the dirt surface. In his last start he won the Grade 1 Sterile Mile in NY with a 112, which is good enough to compete with today’s competition. That was his first and only graded win, all his other races are listed stakes or allowance wins. I do question if the competition was stiff enough to prepare him for this race, as he did run three weeks after the BB, while the top contenders were resting up for today. Don’t get me wrong 112 is nothing to scoff at but the horse that created that pace was not near the front at the finish, any horse can win with a great speed figure with the proper rabbit up front. Seven One Four is one of several in this race that likes to come from off the pace. With that in mind he’ll need to start making his move before the others do and hope he has enough in the tank to hold off their late closing bids. It does look like in the past when he’s run his race he’ll be on or close to the lead by the third call, he just needs to be able to fight to the finish with the late late runners.
13 179897 THE BEGGAR KING(KY) khalasar D Silver 11/1
The Beggar King is a three year old son of Tiznow, out of Khaleesi, a daughter of Danzig. Khaleesi only won two races in sixteen starts, but her produce record has been stellar. She’s been bred five times, all five are winners, with a stakes winner and two graded winners, including The Beggar King. As mentioned before he is the reigning BB Dirt Mile winner, which was won with a 116. In sixteen starts he’s won half of his races and placed four other times, earning over 2 million in his career. He comes into this race with a two race winning streak, and will need a win today to enhance the chance for an Eclipse. Currently he is the 5th ranked sprinter, 2nd ranked router, and 5th ranked distance horse, most certainly he should be nominated, but a win could get him three year old of the year! He’s put up 3 solid figures in a row, so a bounce could be coming at any time, he does get about six weeks rest though coming into the race. Look for him to be half a dozen or more lengths out of it and come charging at the end.
14 181816 KINGS ROAD(KY) super4 Z Wango 32/1
Kings Road is a three year old son of Smart Strike out of Ran Away, a daughter of Sadler’s Wells. Ran Away was a grade one placed grade two stakes winner on the track. As a broodmare she has produced three foals all to win, including a stakes winning four year old, and a stakes placed two year old. Kings Road is an allowance winner, winning four of eighteen starts, with four places and shows earning over one hundred thousand. Kings Road does come into this race off of an open allowance. In his only dirt stake he ran a fabulous 113 going eight and half furlongs, but finished fourth just missing being stakes placed. Kings Road was the last horse to qualify for this race, and has a lot to prove but that 113 does show some hope for him as an older horse running in 2011. As for today he’s raced mainly against his own age, and the majority of this field is made up of older horses. I rarely like an allowance horse in a grade one event, but who knows he could surprise maybe that 113 was indicative of needing better competition to run at. Now his running style leaves him near the pace, and its sure to be a hot one, whether or not it can be won on the lead is an unknown, but the pack that runs at the lead will have to be able to eat into the margin of difference.
15 166270 STORM SMACK(KY) mtkgrs3 I Dozier 7/1
Storm Smack is a four year old son of Storm Cat, out of an unnamed A.P. Indy mare. With twenty two starts to his name, he has won eight times, finishing second and third two times each earning over a quarter of a million dollars. Storm Smack is a graded winner, but as a sprinter. In the three tries going a mile or further he has failed to hit the board. Not sure why the trainer opted for the mile, when there is a sprint race that he would be better suited for. It seems odd that he can’t get the mile when he loves the seven and a half furlong distance. In the start before last he won a grade three with an impressive 117. Storm Smack is versatile, he can either race on the lead or just off of it and can take a fast pace and close in on it without much issue. If this was the Delaware Long Sprint I’d like him a bit more. There isn’t too much speed in this race which could help him, but a lot of great closers to fight off in the end.
That’s the field, one of the largest for this year’s DCPD. Looking at the other fields it is saddening that such a great program drew four, five, and six horse fields. As far as this race goes as I mentioned many times in this article there are only a few horses who like the lead, but some of them are capable of lighting the track on fire, but not necessarily able to win it. Then you have a ton of late runners that may run into traffic with eachother trying to get there first. It wouldn’t surprise me to see five or six horses stretched across the track coming down the lane trying to get their nose on the wire first for a coveted Grade 1 win. My picks are The Beggar King, Seven One Four, and Storm Smack. But in all honesty this race is wide open. Good luck to all, may your horses run fast, and return safely to their stables. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year, whatever you prefer, have a safe end of December! See you in 2011!