DPCD IX – THXMSSLEW

Here we are race fans, its Christmas Eve, and the elves have stuffed Santa’s sleigh for the big night. Soon it will be time to stuff the starter gates full of some of the brightest two year old fillies available. We have nine runners on the fast dirt going 6 furlongs, and I must say I expect a tightly contested race. Enough of listening to me prattle on, let’s meet the field, and get on with the prognostication.

1) Lightning Lele (KY) out of spcstable gets the inside gate, and starts the day with the longest odds on the board at 19/1. Lightning Lele has recently been running the dirt allowance circuit, and holding her own. This will be the first time in a stakes let alone a graded run and she will need a major speed increase to compete with the more accomplished runners in the field. (Fastest run 11/06/10 – 7f – A-22000NW2x – 78sp#)

2) Bully Bully Bully (FL) out of march10 stables, comes out at 10/1 odds. Interesting horse who has graded stakes experience. Her best stakes result was when she placed in the G3 Buckeye Debutante. Has shown some speed, and most recently won at The GOLDENBRIDLED Stakes against a short field. Bullyx3 will need career best run to hit the board, but with four wins in seven, and five ITM she has shown the ability and desire to compete. (Fastest run 09/04/10 – 6f – G3 Buckeye Debutante – 85sp#)

3) Quietly Conscious (AUS) out of dunracing, comes from the 3rd slot at 15/1. Last two trips out Quietly was tried at routing with some success. However the increase in distance did not seem to show an increase in speed, and her career best speed was recorded short on the dirt. Have to like the move back to dirt sprints, but this being the young filly’s biggest race to date, it may prove to be more than she can handle. (Fastest run 07/31/10 – 6.5f – MSW-48700 – 83sp#)

4) Pasqualena (KY) out of guyinchlt stables comes in at 7/2 and is the co-favorite in the race. Already a seasoned veteran at the graded level, Pasqualena has won a G3, and placed at both the G1 & G2 level. 5 of 6 ITM and career earnings exceeding $260,000, one would think this an easy bet. Last two out have been at the 8.5 distance, and she may want even more distance, not less. Most recently in the G1-Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly she failed to finish in the money for the first time in her career. (Fastest run 11/06/10 – 8.5f – G1-Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly – 91sp#)

5) Fishing Hole (KY) out of born2cheat stables comes in at reasonable 9/2 odds. Another of our runners who has stakes experience, as well as a previous G2 attempt that turned out to be the only time Fishing Hole missed the money in 6 tries that includes four wins. In her last three, all stakes runs, Fishing Hole was an impressive 2-1-0 … but there is concern in that her speeds have steadily tailed off over her last two runs. If she can find that burst she displayed three races ago when she posted a 91 at 6f then she has a legit shot to end up in the winner’s circle. (Fastest run 9/18/10 – 6f – ST- The BLACK WELL Challenge – 91sp#)

6) Headingforadivorce (KY) out of blankpoin5 stables comes in at 4/1 odds, and sports a solid graded stakes background. Of her five graded attempts (three G1’s and a pair of G3 attempts), our soon to be single filly has yet to find the winners circle. While she has been in the money three times in her graded attempts, her most recent was a disappointing 10th place finish in the G1-Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly. Her last win came back in May of 2010 running at 5.5f in an Allowance try, but she can’t be totally held responsible for that due to the five straight Graded attempts since (make that six tries counting this race) . She has talent, but just needs to be reminded what it is to win. (Fastest run 10/02/10 – 8.5f – G1-The Darley – 89sp#)

7) One Iota (OK) out of dixiedotc2 stables comes in at 7/2 and is the odds makers’ co-favorite in the race. Once again we see a very strong graded stakes background with five of her seven races being graded tries, and even more impressive a steady speed increase in each of her races. The most impressive aspect of her previous race history is the fact that in seven career starts she has been on the board every time, including a win in the G3-Whiskey Tango back in July. While she only has two career wins, they both came at 6f’s and were on fast dirt. (Fastest run 11/06/10 – 8.5 – G1-Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly – 92sp#)

8) Retro Style (PA) out of zeco comes in at 5/1 and this will be her second graded stakes appearance. While she isn’t the odds makers favorite, Retro may be the scariest filly entering the gates on Saturday. Yes she has only four career starts, but she has easily won each including the G2-Red Fish Blue Fish stakes against 13 other fillies. In each of her four starts she has seen a substantial speed increase, and each of her runs to date has been 6.5f or under. (Fastest run 11/06/10 – 6f – A-18500NW3x – 91sp#)

9) Moon Yodler (CA) out of lesli396 stables comes in at 10/1, and may have the most interesting race history of the entire field. Seven starts split equally between the turf and dirt, with two wins on each surface. She does have stakes experience, having placed in the ST-The INVISIBLE ENEMY Memorial. While her best speed has come in a dirt sprint, she will need career day to finish at the front of this talented field. (Fastest run 11/27/10 – 6.5f – ST-The INVISIBLE ENEMY Memorial – 85sp#)

So now that we have met our field I will gaze into my magic whiskey bottle (which I emptied while writing this), and do some prognostication. I will absolutely guarantee that it will almost probably not provide you will the winning combo. If by some off chance that my picks don’t come in, you can find me passed out under my desk. Writing is thirsty work, and I had to empty that damn magic whiskey bottle somehow. Hic’

On to the picks!

For some reason the magic whiskey bottle is being drawn to Retro Style. I would have loved to have seen her run in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly. Retro will factor, but not be my pick as winner. For that we look to our strongest finisher in the BBJF, One Iota. One Iota is the most accomplished runner in the field, and that experience and success I believe will be the factor. I am picking Fishing Hole to rebound her speed numbers to round out our top three …

1st – One Iota
2nd – Retro Style
3rd – Fishing Hole

Good luck to all, and may the best filly win!

Oh and Happy Holiday’s to everyone!