‘Pinch’ Me – I’m ‘Talkin’ about the DPCD Sprint Championship ‘Prize’
Since my last BTB article (back in February), I have had to give up my cubicle at the BTB offices. Over the summer, I took the opportunity to move my own operations to Washington DC where I began law school. Unfortunately, law school means lots of writing. And I didn’t have the time, or the drive, to spend “free” time doing more writing. Faced with this dilemma, I sadly chose to abandon my cubicle. Though in fairness, I also had no ideas for any new series to write, and since I rarely do race write-ups, the BTB really should have kicked me out of that cubicle long ago. But they were nice enough to keep it open for me, until I told them I no longer wanted it.
What a mistake that was.
With the end of the semester, I found myself craving to do more research and writing. So I decided to pull a George Costanza – Show up at the BTB offices and pretend like nothing happened. I walked up to my desk, but it wasn’t there. Instead, I saw Roxyken and Kiddman playing ping-pong.
“Hey guys. What are you doing?”
“Not much. Just playing some ping-pong in our new recreation cube. This was the greatest BTB creation ever.”
Darn. So much for that plan.
I walked into Tracy’s office to see what I could do.
“Hey Shag. What are you doing here? You quit months ago!”
“Well, I was just thinking…It’s DelPenn Championship Day, and I’m sure you guys could use some help.”
“Yes, we can. How would you like to cover the DPCD Sprint Championship up in Delaware?”
“Perfect. Just let me know the travel plans.”
“Well, about that… It’s the last week of the year, and with the uncertainty of the DPCD this year, we used up our consultant budget. Since you’re not an employee anymore…There’s no money for your travel or expenses. You’re gonna have to do it on your own dime.”
Great…
Luckily, I wasn’t the only one traveling to Delaware. Silverny99 was also headed up there, and she was driving. So, while she was distracted by Tracy giving her instructions, I jumped in her trunk. It was not the most comfortable trip (and I’m pretty sure I passed out once or twice), but I made it all the way to Delaware. And begging for scraps of food from various trainers on the backside has given me an in depth look at each of the horses running in this race (and, well, all the races). So without further ado, and before I’m too weak to continue writing, here is the in-depth preview of the DPCD Sprint Championship, run at 6f on the dirt for all horses 3yo+.
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History of the Race: The DPCD Sprint Championship was first run in 2002. It began as an Owner Restricted Stakes, but bounced back and forth between an owner restricted stakes and an open G1. This year’s edition is the first to buck that trend, as it is being run as a G2.
2002 – The inaugural running of the DPCD Sprint Championship took place in week 1607. It was an owner restricted stakes, letting only DelPenn members partake. As a result, it was not allowed to be graded. The race was headlined by madamson’s Mr. West, who came into the rest off of the 3 best races of his career (including 2 stakes wins). The biggest name in the race was Square Fuzz, who had run 2nd in the 2001 Breeders’ Bowl Sprint. And Square Fuzz did his part early on, getting out of the gate first. But at the time of this race, Square Fuzz was already passed his prime, and he began to fade somewhat quickly. Craftsman assumed the lead, but it was brief. The quick pace set up the race for those in the back of the pack, and Go Fast Win (7.20/1), owned by miraloma, and Ernie River, owned by comeonmom, both took advantage. They moved seemingly in tandem at the top of the stretch, with Ernie River just in front. But Go Fast Win seemed to be gaining slightly faster, and when they hit the wire, Go Fast Win had himself ¼ length in front, becoming the first winner of the DPCD Sprint Championship. He finished in 1:09-4/5, and Go Fast Win would go on to earn over $700K in 94 races, winning 13 including 3 stakes (2 owner restricted).
2003 – For the 2nd time, the race was run as an Owner Restricted stakes. Square Fuzz returned to the race, but again flopped. This time he could not get out to the early lead. That spot was reserved for the favorite, and the biggest name in the field that year, in seagypsy’s Strip Mining (2.70/1). Coming off of a poor 12th place showing in the 2003 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Strip Mining was looking to redeem himself and show off the form that had earned him 2 3rds in his last 3 G1s. Sure enough, he proved that he was much the best in the race. Firing out of the gate, Strip Mining reached the turn first, 1 length in front of Spike The Punch (rd3). In a somewhat anti-climatic running of the race (especially compared to the 2002 version), Strip Mining was never threaten. At the top of the stretch he opened up to 2 lengths over Spike The Punch, and then relaxed a little to beat Spike The Punch by 1-3/4. The time of the race was 1:08-4/5, setting a stakes record that would last for a number of years. Strip Mining would earn nearly $900K in his career, which ended in 2004, by winning 18 of 60 races, including 8 stakes wins (1 G2).
2004 – 2004 saw two different sprint races at DE. One was an owner restricted stakes, called the DelPenn Champions Day Sprint and fitting in with the previous years. The other was a $1M G1 called the DelPenn Sprint, which was run at 6.5f. Rain the poured on raceday, meanwhile, forced both races to be run on Good Dirt, rather than Fast Dirt. The G1 race had a better field (which included such horses as Crazy Horse Too, Seeking The Devil, Crash Bang Wallop(IRE)). It was won by braylee’s Blazing Sevens (6.70/1) in 1:15-1/5, and he won by 1-1/4.
The Owner Restricted version, which is more easily comparable to the current version (as it was run at 6f), was led by 2003’s runner up Spike The Punch. The field also included a couple of Graded Stakes winners in Geri’s Tornado (2000 Big Hill Stakes, 2001 Special Bid Stakes) and Generator (2003 Felipe Alou Cap). However, much like 2002, pace set up this race for closers. Spike The Punch sat in 2nd early, like 2003, just behind Summer Soar. But the dirt was a little more taxing near the front, and the deep closers were able to gain and catch the leaders. Morrissey’s Determine Fate (28.20/1) and elshadi’s Seattle Bid both moved from the back, with Determine Fate coming from almost 10 back in the far turn. With a quick turn of foot both moved, and Seattle Bid briefly grabbed the lead. But Determine Fate was determined, and powered through the final 1/16. The result was a photo, which revealed that Determine Fate had won by a head. The final time on the good dirt was 1:09-4/5. Determine Fate earned $550K in his career with 11 wins in 51 races, and this was the only stakes he won (he only ran in 1 other, his immediate prep to this, and finished a dull 11th).
2005 – The purse was boosted to $500K and the race got a banner, but otherwise the conditions were the same, as it was once again an owner restricted stakes. The biggest name, in hindsight, was Hard To Handle, owned by zwylde, but at this time he had won only 1 Graded Stakes (a G1), and was coming off 3 poor starts, so he went off at odds of 18/1. Instead, the favorite was fatattack’s My True Love (5.60/1). Only 4 of the 20 entrants were in single digit odds, and for once the oddsmaker appears to have properly judged this race, as these 4 all finished in the Top 5. The one exception was Mojito, who went off at 22/1 after a last place finish in this race in 2004. However, Mojito was able to perfectly stalk the pace and then grab the lead and nearly hang on, only getting nipped at the wire. Doing the nipping, by a head, was the favorite My True Love. Starting off in 16th, My True Love methodically moved up throughout the race, gaining the top spot in the last few jumps. He won it in 1:09-1/5, and went out on a bang, as this was his last career race. He won 8 of 28 races in his career, though this was his only stakes win.
2006 – Once again an owner restricted race worth $500K, the 2006 running was a much more even field. The lukewarm favorite was 3yo Twice As Hard, who was coming into the race off of a stakes win. Another 3yo, sallygee’s Lost Empire, got out to the early lead in the race. Lost Empire continued to build on his lead throughout the course of the race. At the top of the stretch, he had opened all the way to a 3-1/2 length lead. And no horses looked like they could catch him. But somehow, the veteran Alythunder II (15.30/1) showed an unexpected turn of foot. While Lost Empire was separating from everyone else, Alythunder II was closing the gap. And late in the stretch, afc2’s veteran, who had run in every edition of this race since 2003 (finishing 4th, 5th, and 11th), managed to steal the lead away from Lost Empire. Alythunder II pulled away to win by ¾ length over Lost Empire in 1:09-1/5. Alythunder II would win 14 of his 78 career races, though this was his only stakes win.
2007 – After 5 years, the DPCD Sprint Championship was finally opened up to the entire sim at large, and the 6f race received a purse bump to $1M and had its status boosted to a G1. The biggest name in the field was Sim Hall of Famer Casterly Rock(IRE), though he was near the end of his career. He had won major sprints at the beginning of the year (including the G1 Sand Castle Golden Sprint), but finished 4th in the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint and was coming off an 11th in a stakes. Instead, the heavy favorite was In A Simple Rhyme, who finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint and sandwiched that race with 2 Graded wins. He was looking to bolster his Eclipse Award campaign, but it was not to be this year, as he couldn’t quite catch the winner, finishing 6th. Instead, fairly slow fractions allowed for the horses at the front to hang on. Kaif014’s Tired Wings got out to the early lead but couldn’t quite hang on at the finish line, finishing third. Instead, it was Western Romp Ted(KY) (10.00/1) who managed to take home the roses. Stalking the early pace and sitting 1 length back, Western Romp Ted(KY) hit the top of the stretch and began his run, moving up and passing the leaders just before the finish line. He drew off to win by ½ length over Smoldering Street in 1:08-4/5, breaking the stakes record set in 2003. Western Romp Ted(KY) won 7 of 43 races in his career, but 6 of those 7 were stakes wins, and 3 of those were Graded Stakes (with 2 G1 wins including this race).
2008 – Once again there were 2 different versions of this race in 2008, both at 6f, and both with a boosted purse of $1.5M. One was a G1, open to the sim, and the other was the owner restricted version. And again, like 2004, rain came on the day of the race and caused both races to be run on the Good Dirt track. The owner-restricted version was won by Barb’s Card Shark in 1:09. Barb’s Card Shark earned $1M in his career, winning 12 of 39 races including 2 stakes.
The owner-restricted version actually had the same number of millionaires as the G1 version (3 – Barb’s Card Shark, Grosse Isle(FL), and Death Alley Driver). The favorite, and deservedly so, was Cascade Magpie(KY) (6.50/1). Punter75’s horse is an off-track specialist, and with the race coming off good here, he was clearly in his element. This was his 5th straight off-track race, of which the previous 4 resulted in 2 wins and a place. The race began with Gone For Royal(KY) getting out to the early lead, but all 20 horses stayed relatively close to the pace. This left it all up to position, and Cascade Magpie set himself up perfectly. Beginning his move at the top of the stretch, Cascade Magpie showed why he was one of the better all-time sim runners on the off-track. He quickly grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch and then drew off, opening up on Call Waiting(MD) and crossing the finish line 1-1/4 ahead in 1:08-4/5, setting the new stakes record. Cascade Magpie(KY) is still active, and has won 21 of 55 races, including 9 stakes and 2 G1s. More impressively, his has an off-track record of 28:17-5-2, with $1.6M of his $1.7M earned on the off-track.
2009 – The field size shrunk to 14, but the 8th running of the DPCD Sprint Championship remained as a G1 open to the sim at large, and carried a purse of $1.5M. A very even field took shape with a lukewarm favorite in parrothead’s Captain Tony, coming off of a 6th place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint. However, the race really set up as a Breeders’ Bowl Sprint rematch, as winner Superman(KY), 2nd place horse Lannister Gold(KY), 3rd place horse Prado’s Choice(AUS), and 4th place horse Henny Again(KY). This DPCD race may have cost Superman the Eclipse Award, as he finished a very dull 13th. While 2nd and 3rd belonged to Lannister Gold and Henny Again, it was a newcomer who took this race. That honor would go to super1’s Procedure(KY)(10.00/1), who was coming off a massive win in an off-track stakes the race before. Stalking the early pace set by Realeza(KY), Procedure began to move around the far turn. He assumed the lead midway through the stretch, and never looked back, drawing off to win by 1 over a blanket finish for 2nd, with a 3 horse photo to decide the rest of the order. Procedure won the race in 1:08-3/5, setting a new stakes record. While still active, Procedure has won 13 of 41 lifetime races, including 11 stakes (3 Graded Stakes), and has earned nearly $1.7M.
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Now for a look at the current running of the DPCD Sprint Championship. This year’s race is a Grade 2 race being run at Delaware over 6f on the dirt. 11 horses were entered, and to show how even it is, all 11 entries have odds between 5/1 and 9/1. The headliner of the field is Pinchingdale(FL), the winner of the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint.
PP 1 – Cherokee Warrior(KY) – It is a bit of a surprise to see riverman’s 5yo sprinter installed as the 5/1 favorite in the race. Cherokee Warrior (Cherokee Run x Pure Profit [Pulpit x Hennessey]) has spent his entire 2010 campaign in allowance races. He has a mid-pack running style, best shown by his last race, an open allowance in FL on week 4519. There, he dropped nearly 7 lengths back early, but showed a strong late kick to pass horses in the stretch, and by mid-stretch he had the lead. He pulled away to win by 2. In 2010 he has gone 11: 4-3-2, earning $128K and 148 BPs. His lone stakes win came in The A.P.’s Fortune Stakes back in 2008, but he comes into this race strong. He has won his previous 2 races, and his last 5 races all show Speed Figures between 104-110. Cherokee Warrior(KY) is by far the best foal from his mother Pure Profit, as the other 3 have combined for 48 races and just 2 wins. Riverman has enlisted the services of Delaware #2 jockey D. Silver (20.5% Wins on the year), ensuring a home-track advantage over some of the opponents. Expect Cherokee Warrior(KY) to sit between 4-7 lengths off the pace, depending on how fast it is.
Record in 6F dirt races: 6: 0-1-1
PP 2 – Pinchingdale(FL) – Bluefox owns the #1 ranked 3yo dirt sprinter, but the oddsmakers installed him as an 8/1 choice. Pinchingdale (Graeme Hall x Blushing Groom(FR) x Diamond Prospect) seems to show up for all the big races, taking home wins in both the Equinics and Breeders Bowl this year. The only thing working against him here is that he is only 3 years old. But he showed that age was not a hindrance in his last race. Breaking in near last in the G1 Breeders’ Bowl Sprint, Pinchingdale quickly fell to 9 lengths back. But a fast pace set the race up perfectly for him, and he methodically began to move around horses in the far turn. By the time they hit the wire, Pinchingdale found himself ½ length in front. It was a similar story in the Equinics, against other 3yo sprinters, in the Long May It Wave Sprint, which he won by ¼ length. Pinchingdale comes into this race off of 2 straight 110+ speed figures. He is 9: 4-2-0 in 2010, earning just shy of $2M and 176 BPs. 3 of the 4 wins were in graded stakes. Pinchingdale is ridden by T. Small, who flew in all the way from Germany to try and add to his 31% winning percentage in this race. Expect him to fly from the back of the pack, as many as 10 lengths off the leaders.
Record in 6F dirt races: 6: 4-1-1
PP 3 – Talkin’ Baseball(KY) – This 4yo, the #9 ranked older dirt sprinter, is campaigned by esagin and is installed as the 6/1 co-2nd choice. Originally, Talkin’ Baseball (Grand Slam x Clever Trick x Private Account) was on the Derby Trail, and even ran 7th in the 2009 Bluegrass Derby. But he was shifted to a sprinter near the end of 2009, and has mostly run in sprints this year (with 1 disastrous attempt at 9f in June). His last race was in the 6f G2 The Double F Memorial in NJ, where he set the early pace and even opened up 3 lengths at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately, he just barely ran out of gas at the end, getting caught and beat by Triple Darkness(KY) by 3/4 length. However, he has shown that he can hold the speed in a 6F race, as back in January he took home the G3 Wicker Sofa Stakes by 1-1/2 with a 116 SP. A bounce race 2 back is the only blemish in his last 6 races, which include 3 races with a 110+ SP. In 2010, Talkin’ Baseball is 11: 3-1-2, earning $605K and 172 BPs, with his whole campaign at the stakes level. K. Ledwith, Japan’s top jockey, gets the mount here and he will try to duplicate the Wicker Sofa Stakes race to improve his 30.5% win percentage. Expect Talkin’ Baseball to gun it out of the gate and grab the early lead, as he will try to hold on to it as they cross the finish.
Record in 6F dirt races: 8: 2-1-1
PP 4 – Prize Rush(ARG) – Rcdlogan saddles one of the “longshots” in the race at 9/1. 3yo Prize Rush (Pure Prize x Rushingwind [Summer Squall x Forty Niner]) comes in as the #35 ranked 3yo dirt sprinter, and this is his 2nd attempt against older horses. His first attempt came in his last race, the G3 JFK Street at 6F in Tennessee. There, he stayed close to the pace, never more than ¼ back. He briefly grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch and got as far ahead as 1-1/2 lengths, but he was nipped at the wire by Brickyard Blue(KY). Prize Rush only has 1 win in his last 5 races, but each race has earned him a speed figure of over 100, and his last 2 races, both 2nds, were his two best career races. For the year, he is 11: 2-3-1, earning $171K and 129 BPs, while spending the whole year in stakes company. Prize Rush is graded placed thanks to the 2nd place finish in the JFK Street, and is the only one of Rushingwind’s 4 foals to be such. M. Staples, one of California’s top jockeys, has flown to Delaware to get the mount here, looking to increase his 16.5% win percentage. Expect Prize Rush to sit close to the pace, but he won’t be setting it. He will need to stalk well in order to win here.
Record in 6F dirt races: 10: 1-6-2
PP 5 – Devil Cat(KY) – This 6yo owned by needles is the longshot of the race at 9/1. Devil Cat (Tale of the Cat x Al Hattab x T.V. Lark) hasn’t been in the greatest form this year, and has really struggled in his past couple of races. His last 2 races have seen his speed figures drop below 100, and the closing kick that he showed in early races seems to have disappeared. It leaves one to wonder whether his 43 career races has finally caught up to him, where Devil Cat may not have the same speed burst that he had in his younger days. In his last race, the Wild Cat Stakes at 6.5f in North Florida, Devil Cat fell 11 lengths back at the halfway point. He tried to use the speed burst that he previously had, which earned him a 3rd place finish in the 2009 G2 Billy and Jimmy Stakes, but it just wasn’t there, and he finished 7th by 9 lengths. This followed a 9th place finish in The Zach’s Projects Challenge. However, prior to those two he put together 3 good races, with a couple of 3rd and a 4th, and all 3 races over a 100 SP. In 2010, Devil Cat is 9: 1-0-2, earning $64K and 76 BPs, with the lone win coming in The Summer Sluice Challenge back in January. C. Ambrose, a NY jockey, makes the drive down to ride here in an attempt to get a better mount that he had been getting in NY, with a 12.8% win percentage. Expect Devil Cat to fall way back early and try to fire a late run, but there is a question as to whether he will be able to pass all 10 other horses.
Record in 6F dirt races: 3: 0-0-2
PP 6 – Captain Tony – Parrothead sends out the veteran of the field at 7 years old as an 8/1 choice. As last year’s favorite in this race, Captain Tony (Dixieland Band x A.P. Indy x Kingmambo) could only muster a 6th place finish, and his advancing age and number of races has forced parrothead to keep his racing more spaced out. And like Devil Cat, Captain Tony appears that to be in the declining stage of his career. His last 3 races have only earned a maximum SP of 101 and he has finished no better than 6th. That 6th, and the 101, came in his most recent race, the G3 Fall Midweight Handicap in NY on week 4512. Sitting way off the pace early, Captain Tony fell as many as 9 lengths back in the race, and seemed to stall there for a little bit. Near mid-stretch he showed that he still has some amount of a burst, as he passed 3 horses and finished only 6 lengths back, but he still could not get up to earn a paycheck. His previous 2 races were both G1 flops. But his last 3 races mask a tremendous run 4 back in the G2 Due North Stakes, where he came from 6 off the pace to blow past the leaders and win by 1-1/4, with a 114 SP. For the year, Captain Tony is 6: 1-0-1, earning $158K and 73 BPs, though his entire 7yo campaign was at the Graded Stakes level. Jockey D. Evans makes the long trip from Melbourne, AUS to Delaware to ride Captain Tony for the first time, and he brings a 25.9% win percentage with him. Expect Captain Tony to settle well off the pace, perhaps as far as 9 lengths back.
Record in 6F dirt races: 20: 7-1-2
PP 7 – Rozelle Autumn(KY) – Bjbandit03’s 8/1 horse comes in as the #8 ranked 3yo dirt sprinter. Rozelle Autumn (Pulpit x Awesome Tone [Awesome Again x Phone Trick]) had a stellar beginning to his 3yo year, and though his placings have cooled off, the speeds have not. He made his first attempt against older horses in his last race, the Wild Thing Stakes, where he sat 2 lengths off of the pace-setter early. Giving indications of a promising career, Rozelle Autumn then started moving up past the pace-setter. Unfortunately, he could not catch the winner Variance(KY), and had to settle for a strong 2nd, but he put a 111 SP on the board, a career best. His last 7 races, meanwhile, have all seen him crack the 100 SP barrier. For 2010, Rozelle Autumn is 9: 4-2-0, earning $332K and 138 BPs. Though he began the year in allowances (including an ill-fated try on turf), he reeled off 4 straight dirt sprint wins, including a win in the G2 The Carry Forward. Rozelle Autumn’s mother, Awesome Tone, appears to be a promising dam. A stakes placed mare, all 3 of her children have broken their maidens, and both Rozelle Autumn and brother Rozelle Rocks(KY) have earned over $100K in dirt sprinting races. Another jockey makes a long trip for the race, as New Zealand jockey G.D. Mate brings his 29.8% win percentage to Delaware for his first mount on Rozelle Autumn. Expect him to stalk the pace, sitting a couple of lengths off the pace-setter.
Record in 6F dirt races: 6: 4-0-1
PP 8 – Gallop(KY) – Tejanorun sends this 4yo as a 9/1 longshot in the DPCD Sprint Championship. Gallop (Mr. Greeley x Galloping Ghost [Wild Again x Easy Goer]) has been relatively consistent this year, particularly after his “jump” in April. His last race was his first graded stakes attempt, in the G3 Uncle Vernon at 6F in California. There, he went the route of deep closer, falling as many as 10 lengths back and sitting in last for most of the race. He began his run in the stretch, and passed a few horses while gaining on the leaders, but he could only manage a 5th place finish, falling 4-1/2 lengths short of the winner. The speed figure for the race was a 105, which was very consistent with his previous efforts. In 2010, Gallop is 13: 3-2-2, earning $120K and 147 BPs. His first and only stakes win (in 3 attempts) came 2 races back, in The Mill Surpassing Challenge, at 6f on the Good dirt in Germany. There his deep closing kick worked better, as he drew off to win by 1. Gallop is one of two children out of 14-time G1 winner (and Grade A mare) Galloping Ghost, but the other, Shay, has not been nearly as good, winning only 4 of 32 races and spending some time in claimers. Gallop picks up Vermont top jockey W. McClendon who brings his 24.7% win percentage with him. Expect Gallop to sit way back along with many others, where he will have to pick off runners in the stretch.
Record in 6F dirt races: 9: 4-1-0
PP 9 – Pro Mon(KY) – Mardigras owns this 5yo that goes off as a 9/1 longshot. Pro Mon (Maria’s Mon x Pro Cat [Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector]) is just now making a return to sprinting, after spending a couple of years doing the route races, including running in all 3 2008 Triple Crown races. His last race was a win in a 6F stakes, The Skip Seattle Special. That race, run on the Good dirt in France, saw Pro Mon, like many other horses in this race, come from well off the pace to win. Falling 9-1/2 back in the field of 4, Pro Mon bided his time and began to move along the inside of the far turn. Soon, he found himself in front, and easily pulled away to win by 1-3/4. He earned a mere 102 SP, but had something left in the tank. Although his year more recently has been uneven, the first half of the year was very strong. Pro Mon put up an astonishing 121 SP in NH on week 4260 in an 8f stakes, and followed that up with a G3 win and 2 graded 2nds. For the year, Pro Mon is 11: 3-3-2, earning $237K and 140 BP, though in sprints he is 4: 2-1-1, all in graded stakes. He is one of 8 children to Pro Cat, who is a very good dam. 3 of her 8 children are Graded Stakes winners, one more is a stakes winner, and 3 others are stakes placed. Only one (by A.P. Indy, no less) had not at least placed in a stakes. Pro Mon has another hurdle to contend with in his jockey, T. Solomon, who is a local Delaware jockey but has only won 3.8% of his races on the year. Expect Pro Mon to be part of the logjam at the back of the pack.
Record in 6F dirt races: 6: 1-1-2
PP 10 – Stairwaytoparadise(KY) – Sparadise runs this 6yo, currently the #19 ranked older dirt sprinter, who goes off at 6/1. Stairwaytoparadise (Pine Bluff x Senorita Paradise [Dynaformer x Tom Rolfe]) has been sporadically run this year, running in only 1 race between March and October. The result seems to be a drop off in ability from the beginning of the year. His last race, in the G1 Double F Memorial, is emblematic of the issues this year. Stairwaytoparadise went to his normal pattern of sitting just off the pace, and he was 2nd early, though he was fell to 2-1/4 behind Talkin’ Baseball, rather than staying very close early. By the time the race ended, he had nothing left, falling back even farther and finishing in 7th, 4 lengths back. This followed a similar result in the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint, where he started off 1 length back but ran out of gas at the end, finishing 5th, 3 lengths behind. In 2010, Stairwaytoparadise was 6: 1-0-0, earning $640K and 86 BPs, though all 6 races were in G1s. The one win was in the G1 Universal Speed, the Equinics race, in his first race of the year. It was a huge run which earned Stairwaytoparadise a 114 SP. Stairwaytoparadise is one of three children of Senorita Paradise, but is definitely the best of the bunch, as one has earned $64K in 24 races, and the other has not hit the board in 4 starts (and has not run in 2 years). O. Osbourne flies in from Utah for this ride, his first aboard Stairwaytoparadise, and he brings his 30.5% win percentage with him. Expect Stairwaytoparadise to try to stay somewhere near the lead, but he might end up a couple of lengths back.
Record in 6F dirt races: 15: 3-2-2
PP 11 – Goldzig(TX) – Korn sends out the final runner in the field, a 5yo, as a 9/1 longshot. Goldzig (Gold Legend x Triple Danzig Too [Belong To Me x Dayjur]) has been fairly consistently over the 100 SP mark in his 2010 campaign, but not quite as high as some of the others in here. His last race, on week 4519 at Colorado, was in The Ed’s Lodge(IRE) Stakes. In that race, he settled into his usual spot, falling around 7 lengths behind. From that point on he dug in, swinging 4 wide as he moved up along the far turn. He hit the top of the stretch 4 back, but kept moving up, and it was enough to snag the lead with only a few strides to go. He crossed the finish line ½ length in front, earning a 105 SP. This resembled his best race of the year, the 109 SP he earned when winning the G3 Porcelain Stakes in Japan in July. There he came from nearly 10 back to win by ½ length, though it was run at 7f, so he had an extra furlong to make up the ground. For 2010, Goldzig went 12: 2-1-2, earning $510K and 97 BPs, with the 2 wins mentioned. This race is his first career G1 attempt. He is the 3rd of 3 children from Triple Danzig Too, but clearly the best from the 4-time stakes winning mare. H. Ross, the top Delaware jockey, gets the mount on Goldzig here in an attempt to boost his 25.2% win percentage. Expect Goldzig to be coming from around 7 back.
Record in 6F dirt races: 11: 3-2-0
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Race Prediction: I fully believe that this race will come down to the breakdown of running styles. In a 6F race, closers are at a disadvantage to begin with. When it turns out that 7 of the 11 runners will be coming from way back, it narrows the field of likely winners. The fact that there is only 1 legitimate pace-setter, Talkin’ Baseball(KY), makes it even less likely that one of the closers will win. I expect that Talkin’ Baseball will set the early fractions, with Stairwaytoparadise(KY)and Prize Rush(ARG) sitting 2nd and 3rd, 1-2 lengths back. But it won’t be enough to upset the pace-setter. And because he’s the lone speed, and he is quite quick, I would put my hard-earned sim cash on Talkin’ Baseball(KY) to win the race. Prize Rush(ARG) will be able to hang on to his 2nd place position, and Pinchingdale(FL), the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint Winner, will lead the charge of the closers to catch 3rd. 3yo Rozelle Autumn(KY) and 5yo favorite Cherokee Warrior(KY) have the greatest chance out of the others to break into the top 3.
Talkin’ Baseball(KY) (6/1)
Prize Rush(ARG) (9/1)
Pinchingdale(FL) (8/1)
Good luck to everyone with a runner in the DPCD Sprint Championship, as well as anyone with a runner in DelPenn Champions Day!