K’s Masterpiece Looks for Repeat in Liz Taylor

The Liz Taylor (G1) is running in Ontario this weekend and has a huge purse of $1 million buckos.  This will be the second running of this mile and a quarter turf race and is restricted to fillies and mares only, age 3 and over.  Last years winner, K’s Masterpiece, makes a return appearance.  She was the favorite last year and the oddmakers have opted to do that once again this year.  Rain will also be feature in Ontario and the grass is expected to be in a yielding condition.   Can K’s Masterpiece repeat on an off-track?  Will someone else be victorious?  Here’s a glance at the field:

1.  Primary Force  10-1

This past June, Primary Force suffered what appeared to be a career ending injury after being pulled up in the race.  But Trainer Mtk76stc had faith that his  mare could come back and race again.  In early September, Primary Force returned and won an allowance race at 9f with a speed of 105.  Looks like the Force is back and moves back to the graded level.   This horse has only one win in 9 graded starts thus far and has been in the money three times. She like to lead and there is some speed in this race which will make her task difficult.

2.  Patienceisthekey   11-1

Patienceisthekey has been in the money in every turf start she has had with a record of 6-4-2.   She comes off a third in the Glen is Falling (G3, 11f) with a speed of 103.  This is her only graded race to date and she gave up a 6+ length lead late in the race and was beat by over 4 when all was said and done.   She is a frontrunner who has built huge leads in the past and held on, but it will be hard to do in this race as there will be plenty of foes looking for that top spot early on.  As a side note, he does run well on this track.

3.  K’s Masterpiece  3-1

K’s Masterpiece is the returning champ of this race and he wired the field by 4 lengths and a speed of 112 last year.   K’s Masterpiece has not had a speed below 100 since 2008 and has not been below 105 since last November.  She’s only had 4 races this year and averaged nearly 108 speeds.  She’s consistently on the board, scoring 22 of 27 turf starts.  And yes, she can run on a wet track as she has 3 wins in 4 starts and a place which was in the Otto You Do It (non-graded, 10.5f) which was her last start but still whipped out a speed of 106.   Very capable of taking this race again.

4.  Paddle Steamer   9-2

In her last start, Paddle Steamer raced over this track in the G2 Molson Export (9f) and finished third with a speed of 108, missing by just under 2 strides.  She closed a ton of ground on an off-track.   Although she doesn’t have a win, she has come in the money four times in five off-track starts.  Additionally, in the last 10 turf starts, her speeds have all been over 100 and in the money nine times, albeit, without a win.  She has 14 graded starts and two wins, both in 2009.   She’s consistent and in the money regularly, but hasn’t won in nearly a year.    She’s got excellent shot of being on the board but needs to find a way to make it to the top.

5.   Tara   7-1

Tara appears to be struggling of late.  In her last 5 starts (all graded) she’s missed the board each time.  All but 4 of her 33 career starts have been in graded races.   With that said, she’s only won 4 races…one being a maiden, another allowance and a pair of graded races with her last win at the end of 2007.  Her track record of winning races hasn’t been inspiring and it looks like the drought will continue.

6.    Elysium Fields   6-1

Elysium Fields has had mixed results in graded racing with a record of 3-1-0  in 10 starts.  She’s been hit-or-miss throughout her career at this level.  She loves setting the pace and will have competition in this race to get that spot.   She does have a win over this track in the earlier part of 2010 and gets 23% win jockey Linville aboard.  She has no races to date on an off-track, so that is an unknown.  To me, she’s a question mark in this race.

7.   Crucial Kill   6-1

Crucial Kill has won 4 of her last 6 races and the wins occurred in a mixture of allowance and non-graded races.  Crucial does have one career graded race where she finished 6^th in a field of 7 this past August, but did make up a lot of ground late in the race.   She has averaged 105 over these last 6 races and she shows promise.  I think a few more races at this level could turn her into a future contender.

8.  Crusher of Hope   8-1

Now here is an interesting aspect to the race that I held off mentioning until now.  Crusher of Hope squared off against last years winner of this race K’s Masterpiece.  Crusher finished second in the race with a 108 speed and is out to win this race.  She has 8 graded starts with a record of 1-2-1.  Crusher’s speeds are normally above the 100 level and she does have good closing speed.  There are a lot of front runners that she’ll have to catch, but my be worth looking at.

9.  Alondra Haack   6-1

Alondra Haack hasn’t had any luck thus far at the stakes level.  She has two starts, both with speeds below 100 and was never a factor in either race.  She is another that likes to run on the lead but hasn’t been able to get out on top at this level.  She has won her last two in non-graded stakes, speeds of 103 & 105.  Alondra has also done well on the off track, with a pair of places in 4 off-goings.  She does have a second over this track offering a ray of promise, however, jockey DJ Brooks casts a dark shadow over that with his 7% win record.

K’s Masterpiece looks well positioned to win this race for a second time.  She should be positioned close enough to the frontrunners and can cash in.

Paddle Steamer has done very well with consistent speed numbers and will be charging from the back.  There is speed in this race and she can catch up to it.

Continuing with the idea that the speed will be overtaken, Crucial Kill will get my third choice.  I just have a feeling the closers have the upperhand in this race.