Anyone Can Win! Heard That Before?

This is of course the Chevel, a G1 race over 6 furlongs for a massive purse of $500,000.  Sure wish one of my horses was good enough to race in this.  Still there are 10 runners here who are good enough and while some may look better than others, the main reason for that is that they probably are.  Which means they have an excellent chance of winning this unless something untoward happens and the longshot gets up.  Which is the beauty of racing – any one of these can win.   I can see you all nodding and saying yes yes – I see what you mean – etc…  Which of course nonsense.  Rarely does the longshot get up – would be great if someone could do the stats for me, say the last 20 years for all races across the world, longshots vs favourites.  Anyone?  The favourite for me here has to be Keep On Running over the tote favourite of Crosby.

1 INSTRUCTION(AUS)  ozlodge  K Bedwell  19/1 

Out of Commands, highly respected and proven sire from Australia is Instruction, 2yo girl trained by ozlodge.  Having got her maiden win in August of this year with a speed of 73 over 5.5 furlongs she backed that up with a 5th and fading run over 6 furlongs in the Swain’s Babe(IRE) Challenge Stakes and a drop in speed to 67.  Now jumping up again in class bigtime to G1 level, she is going to find this very hard as she has really not proven herself at Allowance or Stakes level yet much less this.  Still the exciting thing about 2yo’s is that anything can happen so if you want a surge of excitment running in your veins, back this one as she is the longshot of the race.
  
2 STRATTER JIST(IRE)  foxon  D Aniel  6/1 

A very lively start to her career with a 2nd place on debut followed quickly by two wins in her maiden and then allowance company.  Speeds increasing all the time culminating in an 82 in a G3 over 7 furlongs last time out for a third place finish after leading early but then fading in the run to the line.  Still a good effort though and dropping back in distance to 6 furlongs should help her although she is jumping in class to G1.  Interesting runner – looks promising today.
  
3 CROSBY(FR)  biggray  R Harzheim  4/1

The Crosby out of Mr. Sidney, a new sire this year who looks potentially good out of Storm Cat. After this years racing is finished will show better how his runners are performing.  Swapping around from dirt to turf and back again, looks far more promising on the turf at this level.  Definitely likes longer distances – dropping back to 6 furlongs here would suggest that she is not going to like it.  In fact I would expect her only to be starting her windup as she crosses the line.  Favourite of the race but I think it is way too short for her.  Would much prefer to see her over the mile.
   
4 KYOTO CAFE(JPN)  john3540  C Spoerer  6/1    

Started extremely well in her first two races grabbing two wins on the run both over the 5.5 furlong range. Has increased in speed with each outing as well with her last run being also at G1 level over 7 furlongs and a speed of 82. She finished 4th across the line but really starting to flag so the drop in distance to 6f here should only help her.  That said she was not outclassed at all at this level and should be very very competitive. One to watch and is probably aiming for a place finish at worst.

5 AWESOME COLAC(KY)  alishan  A Breadfan  5/1

Has had 5 runs on the turf for 3 wins with all three of those wins coming from her last 4 starts.  After a disappointing start to her career really she is starting to come to life now.  Although two races back she raced in the highest level yet in Stakes company over 7 furlongs and could only manage a 5th place finish and not really challenging the leaders at all.  Up again in class here will prove to be hard for her although the distance is probably better for her being back to the 6f mark.  A chance maybe.
    
6 ZUZETTE(IRE)  lennoxlove  R Whisper  6/1 

This one is looking very very classy after running a 2nd place finish in her last race over 6 furlongs in the G2 The Lowdown and a speed of 83. In fact that is the longest she has ever run and while she was winning comfortably in her maiden and allowance races over this distance (3 from 3 starts) she did fade a bit when she jumped up to graded racing in her last race.  May be a sign of tiredness or just the extra level of pace needed for that class.  Jumping up again here but she definitely looks like she can handle this.  Very big chance here again today.
  
7 JAY AND SILENT BOB(AUS)  papasmurt  R Poulin  11/1

Only the one run to date for this mare out of Sebring who just happens to also be Aussie registered so for those of you who have read my articles more than once (there are some of you out there I know) then you will know that I am automatically geared to Aussie registered horses.  Anyways, the one run to date, speed of 66 for the win over 5.5 furlongs and she came from near the rear of the field too which might show she can handle a bit longer which she has today.  Half a furlong longer in fact!  Big jump in class though and will need to really adjust her speed to cope with this level.  Midfield finish maybe…
   
8 FREDRICKA FELINE(KY)  dullah99  K Marky  14/1  

Started excellently well this german girl out of Tale of The Cat.  I say German because of the name Fredericka. Looks germanish to me.  Feline of course is another name for a cat which just shows that the trainer is remarkably clever.  Or does it?  Having started off her career with a bang of 3 wins in a row, she then followed that up with a smash in the G3 finishing 7th and fading and basically out of it altogether over 7.5 furlongs.  Back in distance here which will only help her but up to G1 level which probably won’t.  Second long shot of the race – probably a bit harsh on the odds – she can do better than what they suggest.  Place finish at best I believe.
 
9 GHOSTLY GAEL(IRE)  saltire2  B Christopher  8/1 

Well one of my major fears, superstitions, just downright shivers is anything to do with the occult which includes Ghosts!!!  So I won’t stay too long on this gal.  Out of Clodovil has been running sensationally just like some others in this race until she hit Graded racing last time out which proved to be too hard.  Speed of 77 (down), 6th place finish (bad), G3 Fifth of Jack Stakes.  So the solution of course is to put her into an even harder race which is exactly what the trainer has done so that is great isnt it?  Probably finish towards the rear of the field. Too hard for her.
  
10 KEEP ON RUNNING(IRE)  sdmf4  J Plumber  5/1  

Having made a disappointing start in a maiden in August finishing 7th over 6.5 furlongs and a speed of only 67, followed that up with her last run over 8 furlongs in another maiden with a win and an excellent speed of 80.  Now of course she makes the jump from a maiden race to a G1 race which is a pretty big jump.  The thing though which might make her perform well here is her pace.  Back in distance too which means she can give it all she has from the jump.  Definitely a chance to win this.