Last Chance To Make The Derby
The $325,000 Grade 2 Heat Less Stakes for three year olds is the last major Blue Grass Derby prep and the trainers of two colts will still be entertaining Derby thoughts if their charges can win impressively on Saturday. For the others this race is a chance to prove they belong in the Graded Stakes ranks. Let’s take a look at the field from the rail out:
ON THE LOW(KY) 30/1 Divisional Rank : 519
3 year old colt
(STREET SENSE x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x ROBERTO)
Jockey: H Head ( 58 – 5 – 4 – 4 – 9% )
Record: (4: 2-0-2) $33,340 Dirt: (4: 2-0-2) $33,340
Best Speed Figure: 87
We start out with the longest shot in the field, who has never been off the board in four career starts. This lightly raced dark grey son of Street Sense should only get better with time, and as he matures look for this colt to climb in the rankings. This weekend he makes his stakes debut and will face the toughest test of his career. The question for punters is: Is he ready for this group? Do not be surprised if this promising colt jumps up and runs a big race. Serious value for brave bettors.
PRUSSIAN(AUS) 9/1 Divisional Rank : 96
3 year old colt
(HUSSONET x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR)
Jockey: W Mauriello ( 96 – 11 – 11 – 13 – 11% )
Record: (7: 1-2-1) $111,490 Dirt: (5: 0-2-1) $82,550
Best Speed Figure: 96
This late running Aussie bred has run his best races on the dirt, but has yet to win on the surface. In fact, he has not visited the winner’s circle since his maiden win last year which came on the grass. In his three year old debut he was second in The Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic over 8.5 furlongs, but has failed to hit the board in his two outings since then. Last time out he was a one paced fifth in The Grade 1 Sand Castle Derby over 9 furlongs and the drop in class and cut back in distance should be to his advantage.
MARVOLO(KY) 13/1 Divisional Rank : 87
3 year old colt
(SMART STRIKE x STORM CAT x PINE BLUFF)
Jockey: T Mauricio ( 40 – 1 – 3 – 2 – 3% )
Record: (6: 2-1-2) $38,920 Dirt: (6: 2-1-2) $38,920
Best Speed Figure: 97
After closing his freshman season with consecutive victories over a mile, this chestnut was away from the track for nine weeks. He has been third in both his starts since his return and his connections will be looking for a breakout performance in his third start off the shelf. Since his debut last year each of his performances has been better than the last and if the trend continues this weekend he should be right there at the finish.
BOARDWALK ACCESS(FL) 17/1 Divisional Rank : 107
3 year old colt
(RED BULLET x FAIRY KING x ALLEGED)
Jockey: P McGaunn ( 183 – 20 – 14 – 31 – 11% )
Record: (6: 3-1-2) $84,496 Dirt: (6: 3-1-2) $84,496
Best Speed Figure: 99
This Florida bred has been ultra consistent to start his career, as he has never been off the board in six trips to the post. He will be looking to make it a hat trick of wins on Saturday after winning his previous two starts; both at 8.5 furlongs. After beating allowance company in his three year old debut he then stepped up to the stakes ranks for the first time and destroyed a talented field in The Black Tie Challenge at 11/1 odds. He has an explosive late kick and once again the oddsmaker doesn’t fancy his chances with his generous morning line. Punters beware.
GREEK COLONY(KY) 17/1 Divisional Rank : 418
3 year old colt
(CORINTHIAN x PLEASANT COLONY x GONE WEST)
Jockey: M Shabazz ( 51 – 1 – 6 – 3 – 2% )
Record: (6: 2-3-0) $64,340 Dirt: (6: 2-3-0) $64,340
Best Speed Figure: 96
This front running son of Corinthian jumps into the stakes ranks for the first time after an 8.5 furlong gate to wire score against an allowance field four weeks ago. It was his second win in six starts and his connections are now confident that their colt has enough foundation under him to tackle the big money events. He will be part of the early pace and if he is left alone on the lead he will be tough to catch.
SPEEDOS AND GUIDOS(KY) 9/1 Divisional Rank : 89
3 year old colt
(UNBRIDLED’S SONG x AWESOME AGAIN x GULCH)
Jockey: T West ( 55 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 5% )
Record: (6: 4-0-0) $108,960 Dirt: (6: 4-0-0) $108,960
Best Speed Figure: 103
After beginning his career with three straight victories as a two year old, this grey colt has lost two of his three outings at three. In both his defeats he finished out of the money after failing to get to the front, and many handicappers believe he is a need to lead type. Two weeks ago he was beaten nine lengths in The Grade 2 Chicago Derby and his connections think the sloppy track compromised their horse that day. He gets a fast track this weekend and with several confirmed front runners it will make for a very interesting pace.
ELECTRIC BRIDLE(KY) 11/1 Divisional Rank : 156
3 year old colt
(UNBRIDLED’S SONG x RED RANSOM x FORTY NINER)
Jockey: L Dorchak ( 86 – 4 – 8 – 9 – 5% )
Record: (10: 4-1-1) $160,620 Dirt: (10: 4-1-1) $160,620
Best Speed Figure: 97
After beating allowance rivals in his seasonal debut, this colt has turned in two disappointing efforts in the Graded Stakes ranks. He was fifth beaten just two lengths in The Grade 1 Long May It Wave Sprint over 6 furlongs and five weeks ago he was seventh in The Grade 3 Buccaneer Derby at 8.5 furlongs. Another who likes to run on or near the lead, his trainer will be hoping for a major improvement over his last race when he faded badly after setting the early tempo.
INDY GONE(CA) 7/1 Divisional Rank : 137
3 year old colt
(INDY x AWESOME AGAIN x GONE WEST)
Jockey: B Obwan ( 92 – 11 – 9 – 8 – 12% )
Record: (8: 4-1-1) $169,488 Dirt: (8: 4-1-1) $169,488
Best Speed Figure: 101
This colt has fallen off the Derby radar after he was a very disappointing fifth in The Grade 2 Felipe Alou Stakes five weeks ago. He was well considered in that 8.5 furlong race after he had won the Lt. Vast Stakes over 7.5 furlongs in his previous outing. In the Lt. Vast he displayed his trademark late rally to win by three clear lengths, but was unable to duplicate that effort three weeks later in The Felipe Alou. Worryingly for his trainer, that poor effort was the second time in as many starts that he has failed to hit the board around two turns. This race will go a long way in providing the answer to the question of how far he wants to go.
CHELOKEE AGAIN(KY) 6/1 Divisional Rank : 53
3 year old colt
(CHELOKEE x AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY)
Jockey: R Zamora ( 224 – 37 – 29 – 30 – 17% )
Record: (10: 4-3-2) $243,224 Dirt: (10: 4-3-2) $243,224
Best Speed Figure: 104
This colt’s only off the board effort came in his first start for 2010 when he was fifth in The Grade 3 Legoland over a mile. Since then he has rebounded with two impressive efforts, both over nine furlongs. After The Legoland he dropped back to allowance competition and scored by just over two lengths, then he was second in The Grade 2 Chicago Derby in the slop. In both races he received triple digit speed numbers of 102 and 104 respectively and if he holds his form he will be tough to deny this weekend.
DANCER’S SECRET(KY) 5/1 Divisional Rank : 23
3 year old colt
(RAHY x SECRETARIAT x NORTHERN DANCER)
Jockey: J Caves ( 273 – 56 – 60 – 37 – 21% )
Record: (7: 4-1-0) $294,370 Dirt: (7: 4-1-0) $294,370
Best Speed Figure: 103
This two time Graded Stakes winner is probably in this race trying to secure a spot for the Derby in two weeks time. After winning The Grade 3 Silver Fence Derby and The Grade 2 Filipe Alou, the well bred colt was then a disappointing eighth in The Grade 1 California Derby two weeks ago. That below par effort left him outside the top 20 ranked three year olds for the big race in two weeks time. His trainer will be looking to earn enough points without knocking his colt out in order to keep the Derby dream alive.
FIGHT FOR AMI(IRE) 17/1 Divisional Rank : 313
3 year old colt
(ORATORIO (IRE) x WAR EMBLEM x CAPOTE)
Jockey: R Salo ( 45 – 4 – 2 – 4 – 9% )
Record: (9: 2-4-0) $84,940 Dirt: (4: 1-2-0) $51,730
Best Speed Figure: 95
One win and four seconds in his last five starts all against allowance company for this versatile Irish bred colt. Two of those races were on the grass and his last three have been on the main track. Last out he was second in a one mile allowance over a good rated track, and his speed rating of 95 was a career high. Likes to be on or near the lead, he will need another career best if he hopes to be victorious this weekend.
WORTHWHILE(KY) 26/1 Divisional Rank : 449
3 year old colt
(BIG BROWN x MT. LIVERMORE x ALYDAR)
Jockey: M Hibby ( 54 – 2 – 5 – 6 – 4% )
Record: (6: 2-1-0) $41,891 Dirt: (6: 2-1-0) $41,891
Best Speed Figure: 96
This colt seems to have awaken after a less than inspiring two year old campaign and a non threatening fifth to start the year. His last two outings against allowance competition have both been at 9.5 furlongs, and both have been career best. Nine weeks ago he was second with a speed figure of 84 and six weeks later he returned to win by two after closing well in the stretch. That effort resulted in a career best 96 figure. The cut back in distance is a concern, but he did win his lone start at 8.5 furlongs.
RELAX STORM(CZE) 6/1 Divisional Rank : 41
3 year old colt
(RELAXED GESTURE (IRE) x STORM CAT x KEY TO THE KINGDOM)
Jockey: P Thorson ( 55 – 6 – 1 – 6 – 11% )
Record: (16: 3-2-1) $241,450 Dirt: (14: 2-1-1) $200,750
Best Speed Figure: 100
After winning The Grade 3 Cryogenics Juvenile last year, this Czech bred colt has hit the board only once in his next eight starts, and has been out of the money in all five starts this year. He has been butting heads with some of the very best in the division with little success, and even though this field is not as tough as some that he has been facing, this is by no means an easy assignment.
PRONOUNCE THIS(IRE) 6/1 Divisional Rank : 33
3 year old colt
(DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x MISWAKI x UNACCOUNTED FOR)
Jockey: W Desantis ( 257 – 57 – 48 – 30 – 22% )
Record: (11: 3-3-2) $793,781 Dirt: (8: 2-2-1) $764,220
Best Speed Figure: 102
Has been out of the money in his last two starts while trying to accrue enough points to make the Derby. He was eighth in The Grade 1 All Saints Derby and fifth last out in The Grade 2 Lands End. It is unsure whether his connections still have Derby dreams, or if they are looking further down the Triple Crown trail. Will need a top performance on Saturday to show that he belongs with the best of this crop.
Picks
1.) BOARDWALK ACCESS (FL)
2.) CHELOKEE AGAIN (KY)
3.) ON THE LOW (KY)
Good luck to all!