Beer Special Costs More This Year

There are a lot of drinkers in the world and New Zealand recognizes this with their second annual running of the Great Beer Cap.  This race is a G3 event for all horses 3 and older with a distance of 11 furlongs which will be run on the turf course.  Last year drew quite the crowd with 50-cent beer specials that ran before the race up until then end of the race.  It attracted 9 entries.

This year is a bit different.  The field size is about half of last years race with 5 looking to win the crystal beer mug trophy.  The economy has also been rough with a similar beer special being run, but the cost increased by half going at 75-cents per beer.  So on one hand, we lost half the field.  On the other, the price of a drink went up by half.  Oh well…at least the cost of a wager remains the same and I’ll try to pick out a winner which will help to pay for that price increase in the beer special.

1.  Giant Habitat    5-1

Last 3:  14^th in Reclamation (G1)  13f  speed=95

             1^st in Paper St. Soap Co.  11f  speed=111

             1^st in Allowance  11f   speed=105

Giant Habitat just had an awful run in his first graded race in last outing in a huge field of 18, finishing a well back 14^th.  He positioned well early on, running 4^th, but started his decent before the half marker.  That race comes off of two of his best, recording speeds over the 100-barrier for the first time in his career.  He faces a much smaller field this time out but still needs to step things up to show some competitiveness at the graded level.

2.  Vindianapolis   2-1

Last 3:  1^st in Sunken Treasure 10f  speed=112

             3^rd in Jumpin’ Java  12f  speed=109

             1^st in Allowance  11f  speed=106

Vindianapolis has been off the board only once in 12 turf races, and that one time was in the G1 Vicky Derby.  This horse has one other race in graded company, and that was a win in the G3 Timberland Lodge, going 12f in a speed of 111.  Vindianapolis has been coming into form, scoring speeds over 100 in 6 of last 9 starts.  He usually runs near the rear of the field, however, in his last race he wired the field.  Don’t be surprised to see him taking the lead in this one, as the field lacks any serious front runners.

3.  Consecutive   4-1

Last 3:  1^st in Allowance   10f  speed=100

             3^rd in Allowance  10f  speed=105

             6^th in Japanese Saint Legend (G1)  14f  speed=102

Consecutive has had two starts in graded racing.  He disappointed as a co-favorite at 5-1 in the Japanese Saint Legend, finishing in the middle of the field and never posing any serious threat.  However, the prior race was a win in the Dutch St. Leger (G3) upsetting the favorite at 4-1, going 14f in 108.  Consecutive has been putting up respectable speed numbers and seems to find small and moderate sized fields to run in.   Bears watching.

4.  Refuse to Cry   7-2

Last 3:  4^th in Hardcourt (G2)  10f   speed=98

             12^th in Chuck’s Truck (G3)  10f  speed=94

             13^th in Diamond Stakes (G3)  16f  speed=91

Hard to tell what’s going on with Refuse to Cry.  He has lots of racing experience in graded racing with a record of 1-3-4 in 15 starts.  From October ’09 to January ’10 he has averaged a speed of almost 107.  However, his speeds have plummeted as noted above, averaging 94.  Ok, so we can throw out the 16f Diamond Stakes as the distance may have been too much.  But his performance has still been disappointing.  Makes me think he is crying out for a race (no pun intended). 

5.  Christchurch  8-5

Last 3:  1^st in Allowance   12f  speed=108

             1^st in Allowance   13f  speed=108

             1^st in Allowance   13f  speed=103

Christchurch is another experienced grade runner, with a record of 3-2-1 in 14 starts.  He has a 3-race win streak going, each time as the favorite in allowance races.  The last race was a monster, where he trailed by 16 at the half and pulled away from the field to win by 3 at the wire.  He is a strong closer and this field lacks serious front speed.  Since October 2008, he has only 2 races with speeds below 100, and they were recorded at 99.  Not a lot of serious stake runners in this field which has tipped the odds his way again.

Trackman Picks:      5-2-4

Yoss Picks:              2-5-3

My Picks:                5-2-1