The Grade II Cold Plate
The Cold Plate Grade II
1 4-1 KELA- Beezal(NZ) homebred 4yo colt
Zabeel x C-rated Club Wondering (Sadler’s Wells x Explosive Bid)
14-5-0-3 985K career earnings
Kela (15.7%- 38.8%) brings in a graded winning son of Zabeel to Germany this week. I am not quite sure what to make of this one. He has shown instances of brilliance, but his last three races were truly abysmal. The race in January at sixteen furlongs was not terrible, and he did finish a decent third in the Grade II Fitness Cup. That was a very salty group to run against and although the 97 speed figure won’t open too many eyes that was a useful race. This is the only horse that I am sure will like thirteen furlongs. The one race that I love was back in November in the Grade I Vickey Derby. He crushed by almost three at this week’s distance and won with a very nice 106 speed figure. That is the race that sets him up for this week. I would expect him to be closing as usual this week, but he shouldn’t be too far back, and will have first jump on all of the deep closers. 4-1 is a steal on this guy if you are willing to do some archeology in his past performances. His pedigree is stamina top to bottom, and I think he can turn it around and pull the upset.
Best speed-106, three times, might be his best
Best speed at distance- 106
Race trip- Closer, but should not be too far back
Predicted finish- 1st, looks like he can get it done
2 5-1FLYINGTAIL- Beating the Odds(MD) homebred 6yo horse
Oratory x G-rated Ice Exault (Gulch x Vice Regent)
44-15-8-6 797K career earnings
Flyingtail (12.3%- 34.9%) has a guy used to sprinting trying to go longer than nine furlongs for the first time ever. Yikes, this is a tough spot for this one. He has been racing mostly between six and seven furlongs, and is making a huge jump in distance to thirteen furlongs. His one try at nine furlongs was not the kind of performance that is inspiring me about the distance this week. He was beaten by 17 lengths, finishing a dull fourth. A closer look at the pedigree offers some more bad news. Oratory right now is producing sprinting purses at 67% over Gulch which is another sprinting influence. I simply do not see how this guy can get thirteen furlongs. This will be his fifth try with graded company with his best finish a third back in 2006 as a two year old. He does not have take your breath away speed, but I would expect to see him out front this week at this distance for good or bad. I suppose if he can get out front in some crawling fractions and have something left he might be able to steal it, but that is a very big question. At this point in his career it might be a bit hard to teach an old horse new tricks.
Best speed-111
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Stalker, but should be up front in this one
Predicted finish- 6th, I just don’t think he can get the distance at this point in his career.
3 EVEN WISPER2K8- No More Monsters(ENG) scratch homebred 4yo colt
Green Desert x Fappiano x Habitat
17-5-2-2 429K career earnings
Wisper2K8 (9.7%- 31.5%) has the even money favorite and what looks to be a monster. But as you noted I did not pick this one. So let us look at what I think are tiny chinks in this one’s armor this week. Since he began running with older horses he was just about untouchable at ten furlongs winning most everyone he entered. At twelve furlongs things change. He was beatable, losing two graded races at twelve furlongs by a combined 40 lengths. So he turns four and continues racing at between ten and eleven furlongs against older horses and what happens? Four fourth place finishes. Even with an eye popping 110 speed figure in the G II Victoria Cup, that was not enough. So what to make of a horse that was closing in all of those races except one where a on the lead experiment was tried. Hell, I don’t know, this is by far the best horse in the field, but I think we see the same things this week. He will be closing, but just won’t get there. I think one of the things that might have a clue to what appears to be a distance limitation is on the dam side. There is no doubt Fappiano can be a stamina influence, but anytime Mr. Prospector is on the dam side there can be distance limitations. I would expect to see him very far back and closing at the end, but just run out of race track as Beezal gets first jump. Great horse that will be fine, but think it’s at ten furlongs. This will be his seventh graded try, and I think he will need and eighth try for that first win, but then again his class could show through and win by five.
Best speed- 111
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, but has been closer in the past
Predicted finish- 2nd, best horse, but not his best distance.
4 4-1 VERONA- Otto Platinum(KY) scratch homebred 8yo mare
Mineshaft x Saint Ballado x Unbridled
46-15-7-7 887K career earnings
Verona (18.4%- 47%) brings in a grizzled veteran lady of the graded stakes circuit. This old gal will be making her 16th graded start with one win and several seconds and thirds. Running against the boys is nothing new to this mare as this will be her eighth try with three seconds and a win, with a second in a grade II at 16 furlongs. Her form has been falling off as of late with her last win coming in July of last year. She has been avoiding the longs races as of late as she last ran over 10.5 furlongs in October of 2008. At one point in her career she might have had a legitimate shot in a race of this distance against the boys, but at this point she is really going to have to turn it around. With her breeding and career record she has a very bright future as a broodmare if she never wins another race. She can show some speed, but I think she will most likely sit a stalking second and try to move when the early speed falters, which it should. She has to sustain that move which has been a bit of a problem lately. She has been in positions to win, but has flattened out, and unable to close the show. What a great old race mare though.
Best speed- 106
Best speed at distance- 96
Race trip- stalking two or three back
Predicted finish- 3rd, not quite sure she has it in her any longer
5 8-1 LIP- Bad Magic(WA) homebred 5yo horse
Trail City x C-rated Boca Ciega (In the Wings x Kingmambo)
22-7-1-4 166K career earnings
Lip (15-5%- 40.4%) brings a Washington bred across the pond this week for his shot at two graded stakes wins in a row. This guy is in very good form right now since he has been running a bit longer with most of his efforts being between twelve and sixteen furlongs. While his last race was a graded win, it might not be quite so good on paper. His 96 speed figure probably will not get it done this week, as his last race had no graded winners and a field of only four. He has run in the 90’s at sixteen furlongs so he can get this distance, but can he run a big race to beat graded winners? Of that I am not so sure. His pedigree is stamina from top to bottom, and if lip can keep flying him all over the world to race in short fields he will be successful, but I just think he is a step below the elite horses. He does have speed and might be able to get the lead but most likely will sit a stalking second as he lacks sprinter speed. A nice horse, but this field looks a bit too salty.
Best speed- 101
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- up close stalking should be within two early
Predicted finish- 4th, not sure how he will race against a couple of really good horses.
6 11-1 GR8WHITE- Empty Cage(SAF) scratch homebred 4yo colt
Hinton Wells x Event of the Year x Pharly
25-10-7-3 354K career earnings
Gr8white (18.3%- 57.4%) shows up in Germany this week with a South African bred four year old colt. This is another horse that has been protected throughout his career running in field over eight just three times in 25 starts. Well the good news is this is another short field. His pedigree is somewhat obscure, but is stamina top to bottom one generation off of Sim royalty in Sadler’s Wells and Seattle Slew. This is another speed horse that could be setting up some ding dong action up front setting up the closers perfectly. Even as much speed as this guy possesses I am still not sure he can get the lead away from Beezal who is a sprinter. This will be his third graded stakes try with fifth place being his best finish. He has won at eleven furlongs and has a decent finish at twelve so he should get the distance. He has won from the lead, but his stalking trips might be his best trip and he should be right around there. The one thing he doesn’t need is to get into a speed duel with a sprinter that has no shot.
Best speed- 102, but on dirt, 98 on turf
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- on the engine, gunning for the lead, but don’t think he can get it
Predicted finish- 5th, not sure graded stakes races are going to be sources of much success.