Desert Lady Stayer

Expect a fast start to Saturday’s co-feature in Dubai.  A surprisingly large number of older gals who are accustomed to wiring their fields helped to fill out the field in the second running of the Grade I Desert Lady Stayer in Dubai.

Seven of the top 25 rated marathoners made the trip to the desert where they will battle over 14 furlongs for a $500,000 purse.

Last year’s winner, Hidden Messages, did not return and has been concentrating on turf races lately, but two from that inaugural run,  Bilbo Rocks and K’s Kuriara are back, hoping to improve on their third and fourth place finishes.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 ROCK EVERY DAY(IRE) (DAYLAMI (IRE) x ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x DIESIS(GB)) bred by cale2, trained by dorrin (Ridgecrest Champion Stables, 11%) Style: S, Odds: 17-1

Once ran for a $2000 tag and only rarely hits triple digits in her speed figures.  Plus her jockey is off to a very slow 2010.  Most damning is that she is trying to pick up her first graded win in her 44th lifetime start.  That just never happens.  On the plus side, she did finish in the money once in a graded stakes at this distance,  and she’s been first or second in her last three tries on a fast track.  Expect her to fall well back early and try to pick up tiring horses late.  Her running style is to be preferred in this race.

PP 2 BILBO ROCKS(KY) (LEMON DROP KID x IN THE WINGS(GB) x WILD AGAIN) bred by nightnurse, trained by mickyb3 (Briant Breeding & Racing Empire, 16%) Style: P, Odds: 14-1

This barn has done very well since picking her up for a $60,000 tag two years ago.  She’s won 10 times, including seven stakes – two of them graded.  Her last outing was a slow and distant second in a four-horse overnight, and she gets the knock of being a beaten favorite.  There is a disturbing pattern of declining speed figures as she hits the 30 race mark, so there is plenty of reason for caution.   She’s recovered from bad outings before. and she did finish third here last year and will appreciate the drier track.  The odds are generous for one with a chance.

PP 3 GOT LEMONS(KY) (LEMON DROP KID x AFFIRMED x GRAUSTARK) bred and trained by jrogue3 (Jrogue Stables, 18%) Style: E/P, Odds: 18-1

Talented trainer always sends them out well-meant.  Lightly raced filly is coming off two huge wins.  You seldom see wins by five or more lengths in the Sim, yet Lemons has done it twice in a row.  While she seems to be making a huge jump in class from a five-horse overnight to a Grade I race, she has easily passed every dirt test so far, and she beat a top-ten mare in that overnight.  Worth a shot at the odds.  If not now, soon.

PP 4 EXALTED CAT(KY) (VISION AND VERSE x RAHY x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by carolover, trained by frosty (Ace Stables, 13%) Style: E/P, Odds; 16-1

Another former claimer, expertly handled.  She has five wins in seven starts since her $20,000 claim.  Her former connections did try her in some two-year-old stakes, but that was a long time ago.  She’s done everything Ace has asked of her, so why not see if she can fit with these?   I would wait until she shows she does fit before putting any money on her.  Her chances would have improved had the track been wet or she had connected with a better jockey.  Miller has no wins and one second in 37 rides so far.

PP 5 K’S KURIARA(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x SEATTLE SLEW x NUREYEV) bred and trained by metarile (Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation, 25%) Style: E, Odds: 11-1

Speedster almost always gets off to a clear early lead and hangs on often enough to garner the number four divisional ranking.  Last time out she faded badly in an Equinics race, as all front-runners will from time to time.  She’s especially prone to tire on wet tracks, and that may be her excuse for losing by over 10 lengths last year in this race after leading by three late. She gets a better jock this year and a dry track, but she also gets more company in the early stages. 

PP 6 K’S ARAKU (SADLER’S WELLS x NIJINSKY II x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by kronus (Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation, 31%) Style: E, Odds: 8-1

All of Ledwith’s stables win a high proportion of their races.  This old mare is a perfect example.  She hasn’t finished out of the money on a fast track since 2006, meanwhile picking up 18 wins since then.  So who has quicker early foot – this one or her stablemate just to the inside?  They did run together back in 2008, and the early lead went to K’s Kuriara.  Even if this one gets caught up in a speed duel, the good news is that she seldom fades to worse than second.

PP 7 SLEW OF CASH(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x SADLER’S WELLS x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by chilichili, trained by plunk5 (Chilimac Stables, 18%) Style: P, Odds: 6-1

Consistent and reliable mare runs into K’s Kuriara for the fifth time in her past seven races.  She’s finished in front of that rival twice and behind her twice.  Flip a coin.  Rated number 5 in the division, she has an advantageous running style for this field, and she’s been in the money for 18 of her past 22 races.  She does have a penchant for finishing second – including her last three races- and she has yet to win a Grade I after seven tries.

PP 8 SHE MUST BE GIANT(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by jockster2 (Jpritchett Stables, 10%) Style: S, Odds: 7-2*

Gets the morning line pick on the basis of her very fast race last time when she beat a strong field in the Grade I Original Margarita, a race that included the number one rated router.  This young filly won’t be intimidated by the higher rated mares in here, but she might be tested by the distance.  It’s one thing to post a 112 figure at 9 furlongs; 14 is another story.  She has run 12 furlongs a couple times and did OK.  She’s passed every test so far.  We’ll see how she takes to marathons.

PP 9 REBECCA’S ROSES(JPN) (ROSES IN MAY x BOLD RUCKUS x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by dodoben (Rharfo 2004 (Inzy Barns Inc.), 10%) Style: P, Odds: 18-1

Yet another consistent performer, she’s been out of the money only once since 2007.  She was only the second one entered here – before her connections could know just how tough this field was going to be.  She does seem up against it here.  She’s never been in a graded stakes, never won a stakes, hasn’t faced a field with more than eight runners in 15 months, and has only once turned in a triple digit speed figure.  It’s hard to picture her having much of an impact here.

PP 10 WONT BE GONE LONG(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB)) bred and trained by supapogs7 (POGO RACING@SPIRIT OF FIFE STABLES, 22%) Style: S, Odds: 9-1

In the Dixie Bar the Door Equinics race, K’s Kuriara finished 7th and Slew of Cash 2nd, but it was this filly that pulled off the big win, swooping from far back in a spectacular stretch run.  It’s tough to put together back to back runs like that, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic.  She’s won four of her last five races all by three or more lengths, and she’s still improving.  Form cycles suggest some reason for caution, but at 9-1 she’s a true overlay.

PP 11 DAIFA(IRE) (HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR x TALE OF THE CAT x BROAD BRUSH) bred and trained by zambaygo2 (Rafa Stables, 15%) Style: E, Odds: 9-1

She’s been  out of the money only once since 2008, unfortunately that was her sole graded start, and she wanted no part of it.  She was entered in this race 24 hours after it opened, and there were only two entered before her, neither of them intimidating.  It sure filled up since then.  She has some class and speed issues to overcome, but maybe not style issues. She broke her maiden coming from just off the pace and has a win in similar style a few back.  That’s good, because there are other early speed horses here that appear quicker. 

PP 12 SEEKING TREATMENT(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x NUREYEV x DANZIG) bred and trained by surlyn (Balata Golf Resort, 17%) Style: P, Odds: 14-1

Lightly raced mare tries an ambitious class jump here.  In her lone stakes try she was a distant third at 20-1.  Otherwise, she’s been beating up her allowance foes by wide margins.  She’s just coming into her own now at five, and the number one five-year-old by Seeking The Gold has similar breeding and excels at long routes.  Maybe not today, but it’s worth trying her at this level.

PP 13 MESSY MISSY(KY) (WOODMAN x BROAD BRUSH x UNBRIDLED) bred and trained by monimonica (Monimonica Stables, 10%) Style: P, Odds: 8-1

She tried running long for the first time last start, and surprise, she picked up her first graded win since she was a two-year-old.  And in that race she beat none other than Goldman Sachs, currently ranked number two in the division.  Woodman has had some other notable successes with distance runners, so her win last time was not a fluke.  The time wasn’t all that fast, and other than Goldman Sachs there wasn’t much in the race, so I may prefer others but would not be surprised if this one took it all.

PP 14 USUSAL SUSPECT(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x WAR CHANT x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by mickyb (Briant Breeding & Racing Empire, 11%) Style: E, Odds: 22-1

In December she upset a Grade I field to win at 24-1, thus earning a top 10 ranking in the division.  She gets no love, however, in the morning line as she’s assigned the longest odds in the field.  There’s no question she is capable of losing races by huge amounts, and it would be no surprise if she did that in this race. But.  She followed up her 24-1 win with a second at 15-1.  Rare is the horse that wins at odds long enough to yield a positive ROI over her lifetime.  She gets a decent jock and could just mess up the exotic bet of someone who doesn’t put “all” on the bottom.

Summary.  There are so many here that always finish in the money that something has to give.  Ledwith’s two mares pose an interesting problem.  How do they not burn each other up in a speed duel?   There are a couple fillies here that are still developing and may be potential Eclipse winners.  I haven’t been right in a race since before you were born, but that won’t stop me: Won’t Be Gone Long / Slew Of Cash / K’s Araku.