California Derby “Lock Race”
A spot in the Bluegrass Derby awaits the winner of this Saturday’s California Derby, and this shot at the bigtime has drawn a spectacular field. 13 colts and a filly will go to battle over the nine-furlong distance on the fast California racing surface.
Could today’s winner be the one that gets the glory on the first Saturday in May?
SOCIALISM 20/1 lenny29 F Dekeyser (21%)
Starting from the rail is one of the wild-card runners in today’s field. While this son of Bernardini has only won some 70 grand so far in his career and has just one minor stakes trophy to his credit, he has won both of his starts since moving to the dirt, and his speed ratings are only a tiny bit short of the top-rated ones in here. It’s hard to dislike the pedigree; if this guy can handle the huge class rise, he could surprise, and his just-off-the-pace running style could fit very well here.
QUIK N SHILOH 15/1 quikvett1 T Bates (10%)
The lone filly in today’s race lost to the excellent Hard Indian in the California Oaks after leading from the gate last time out. Before that, he took an Equinic trophy in a dazzling sprint effort. The tough Midnight Lute filly might be biting off a bit more than she can chew at today’s nine-furlong distance. Definitely will keep the pace honest, though.
CAPTAIN CHARISMA 13/1 sportnwood R Lombard (24%)
This guy looked pretty ordinary until he tried the dirt four races ago. Now, the son of Danehill Dancer is anything BUT ordinary. He hasn’t been worse than 2nd since the move to dirt, and he beat some pretty good ones in his last, his first 2-turn dirt effort. Could be dangerous at his best.
CURLY Q 5/1 lgbost2y M Staples (17%)
This guy has certainly done everything right… Almost. His devastating stretch drive has gotten him to the winner’s circle in half his starts, including a facile win up the Coast in the G3 El Camino Derby, but he has run at this track three times and has yet to find the winner’s circle. Of course, the three races were very tough graded stakes, and he was closing well in all of those. It would be no surprise to see this son of Curlin finally get a win here and punch his ticket to Louisville.
BUSHWHACKED TED 5/1 pup F Gossett (26%)
Let’s see; Grade 1 win? Check. Three triple-figure speed ratings? Check. Tactical early speed? Check. Experience around 2 turns? Checks, lots of them. A Derby Lock? Umm… Nope, not yet… Maybe today, but the son of obscure South African sire Official Flame will need to improve greatly on his first Derby Lock attempt to do so, something that is quite possible.
MAMBO HEAT 16/1 stormracin A Lewis (14%)
This son of Heatseeker hasn’t been able to get a stakes win yet, but he always seems to be nearby in his graded-stakes efforts. His late rush is likely to be seen again today, but a minor award is likely the best possibility.
PINCHINGDALE 16/1 bluefox L Jones (13%)
This son of Graeme Hall improved greatly to pull off a 27/1 upset in an Equinics sprint race last time out; was that a fluke, or can he pull off another one and make his way to Louisville? To do so, he’ll have to prove he can win a 2-turn race, too. A lot to ask, but then so was so was last time…
KEASBEY NIGHTS 12/1 cobrakai B Peeples (0%)
Son of Gone West was very impressive in his last win, but this is a big step up the class ladder. The colt has already demonstrated that he can win from far back or from a stalking position; hopefully his winless rider will still be in position upon the colt’s back at the wire. Lightly-raced and improving, but probably asking a lot here.
DANCER’S SECRET 6/1 blankpoin2 O Brim (11%)
Was a blur in the stretch in the G2 Felipe Alou Stakes last time out, and another huge run like that one could get the son of Rahy the golden ticket to Louisville today. If this happens, it’ll be the colt’s first time away from this track. Jock rides him for the fourth straight time today.
PINEAPPLE EXPRESS 8/1 buffy8 M Billig (15%)
All was looking good in midstretch last time out in the G2 El Camino Derby, but this son of Awesome Again was unable to deal with the closing rush of CURLY Q. This one seems to be on one of those “every other” streaks, and this would be one of the off runs should that continue. He’s won here before, so maybe he can turn that around.
CALL FOR A.P. 20/1 raiderking R Simcox (8%)
Son of the great A.P. Indy surprised with a huge effort in the G2 Moises Alou Cap last time in only his fourth career start. Another like that will put him in contention today; the CPU doesn’t think that’s a likely scenario. Trainer wins a high percentage.
ZACATECAS DANCER 14/1 intheslop F Griffen (26%)
This son of Silver Charm came out of a series of pretty-good allowance efforts to grab the show dough in the G3 El Camino Derby last time out, nearly dancing past PINEAPPLE EXPRESS in the process. Here’s yet another upon which to wonder: Was that a fluke?
TO DIE IS GAIN 14/1 4gone F Porter (11%)
This guy is as consistent as they come; 6 starts, never off the board. Today’s field is much deeper, however. Improvement will be the need for this son of Dynaformer.
GIVE EM THE HYSIGN 6/1 tearsrock Mo Turner (5%)
This colt is undefeated in two starts here, but both were sprints. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was no match when he tried the Florida Derby Lock race last out; the CPU thinks a turnaround from that effort is a good possibility.
My pix:
#4 CURLY Q will close the deal this time.
#1 SOCIALISM will be near the pace, and almost pull the upset.
#9 DANCER’S SECRET will also close strongly, but just miss on his home surface.
Good luck at the races!