$5 Million Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic

The Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic is the second race on the card in the United Arab Emirates this weekend and is the first of seven major stake races with purses of one million or more.  This particular Grade 1 race has one of the highest, with $5,000,000 on the line.  It’s also at the longest distance with the field running a mile and a half on the turf track.  All horse age 4 or over are eligible for the race and we have quite the field loaded with quality talent, so lets  see the competition:

1.  Portman’s Perfect   6-1

Last Three:   The Victoria Cup G2,             10F   2^nd   113 speed

                      The Alyrap Roar Challenge   11f     1^st  109 speed

                     Coxless Stakes G1                10f     7^th  105 speed

Portman’s Perfect has put up good speed numbers of late, hitting 113 last time out which is his second highest in over a year.  He had a poor recent run in the fall, but recent form looks promising.  Jockey draw is horrible, getting 3.7% winner for 2010 Lyles aboard and his career winning percentage of 6.6% isin’t a lot better.  Jockey will be of no benefit and it will all be up to the horse on this trip.  

2.  I Don’t Stutter   5-1

Last Three:   Reclamation G1                    13f     2^nd   116 speed

                     The Winter Cup G1             13f     1^st    117 speed

                      Millwood Cup  G1             16f     2^nd   105 speed

I Don’t Stutter comes off a pair of races where he recorded his best two career speeds.  I have seen horses put in huge speed numbers before just to drop off just from the wear and tear.  My first thought was that this horse fits this picture, going 117 and 116 in back-to-back races.  However, the Winter Cup win was in December with a gap of several weeks before finishing 2^nd in the February running of the Reclamation.  I Don’t Stutter looks sharp and should be ready for another big effort.

3.  Downforce   9-1

Last Three:  The Boston Post Road          10.5f    3^rd   105 speed

                     King Kong Cup G1               10f    5^th   107 speed

                     Coxless Stakes G1                10f    1^st  112  speed

From February 2009 through November 2009, Downforce had a streak of 10 races finishing first or second.  That ended in the King Kong Cup where this late closer didn’t seal the deal.  Downforce was the beaten favorite in his last race, a non-graded stakes race, and his late speed never kicked in.  A good horse but there are signs that his form may be on the downside.

4.  The Gun Went Off   7-1

Last Three:  The Zed’s Dead Handicap          11f      2^nd   111 speed

                    The Winter Cup G1                   13f     13^th     98 speed

                     Japan Classic  G1                     12f      1^st    113 speed

After a poor outing in the Winter Cup, The Gun Went Off took a 2+ month break and came back in a tune-up race with a great speed of 111 in the Zed’s Dead Handicap.  This was raced on the dirt and all signs show he is ready to go again.  The two-time winner of the Japan Classic has collected six G1 wins and over $10 million in earnings.  This late speedster has some value at 7-1

5.  Title Defense   6-1

Last Three:     Reclamation G1                             13f    6^th    107 speed

                       Buck Dharma Handicap G2          11f    1^st    109 speed

                       Japan Classic  G1                         12f    3^rd   112 speed

Title Defense likes to run in the middle of the field and this race should be no exception.  He’s been on the board 14 of 15 turf starts with his last race in the Reclamation being the only one off the board.   As co-favorite in that race, his outing was rather poor.  Look for improvement this time.

6.  Winter Quest  10-1

Last Three:    The Jumpin’ Java Stakes              12f     4^th     109 speed

                       Breeders’ Bowl Turf                  12f    14^th     95 speed

                       Canada Turf  G1                       12f      4^th    101 speed

Winter Quest just hasn’t shown his best lately.  The 4^th in the Canada Turf had a field of 4, and Winter Quest was beat out by two others in this field.  He seems to be at his best in the summer months, winning a pair of graded races this past year and two allowance events the prior year.  The season just doesn’t seem right for Winter Quest.

7.  Carnival of Love   9-2

Last Three:     Reclamation G1                            13f    1^st   117 speed

                        Ferdichenko Cup G3                  12f    1^st  113 speed

                        Allied Assault Handicap G1        12f    2^nd  112 speed

This hard late closing horse will get the services of top jockey Harzheim (27% win).   Carnival of Love has just put in three of his best races of his career, capturing his 5^th graded race win and beating many of the others in this race in the recent  Reclamation, which Carnival won by 2 lengths.  He looks good, but be cautious as his speeds have been high and this may wear a little bit.

8.  Proud Souls  6-1

Last Three:       Reclamation G1                        13f     7^th    104 speed

                          Mean Joe Green Classic         11f     1^st    112 speed

                         King Kong Vase                      12f     2^nd   107 speed

The speedsters in this race have drawn the outer posts.  Proud Souls went off as the co-favorite in the Reclamation and set the early fractions.  He started to tire just before the half and finished a well back 7^th.  He was pressed on the front end and this race will be no different as the two horses just on the outside of him will be applying the front end pressure.  Proud Souls is 13 of 16 in the money on the turf and he can cash in if the early speed can get away from the late closers.

9.  New Money   14-1

Last Three:      Flat Land and Water Memorial         16f    7^th    96 speed   

                        Fitness Cup G2                               16f    1^st   102 speed

                        Allied Assault Handicap G1             12f    4^th   109 speed

New Money takes a drop in distance from 16f down back to 12f which should be beneficial to make his front running speed last.  He surprised everyone with a 2^nd place finish in the G1 Japan Classic (12f) getting caught late in the race at 19-1 odds.  There’s a lot of talent in this race and he will have pressure for the front spot by the surrounding post position horses.  The speedsters will have to work as a team to fend off the late closers, and New Money will have to show that he is the best of the front runners.  Getting 2% winner jockey Jones, who is in a 1 for 51 slump, doesn’t make one overly excited on his chances.

10.  K’s Stagflation   18-1

Last Three:       Reclamation G1                    13f    3^rd     115 speed

                         Huge Tail Challenge             12f    1^st        77 speed

                         Japanese Saint Legend G1   14f    1^st      111 speed

The speed in the Huge Tail Challenge looks awfully slow at 77, however, the K’s Stagflation went off as the heavy chalk play at 1-5 and basically took this race as a jog.  K’s Stagflation will be out on the front end early, challenging the two on his inside for the lead.  I suspect he may back off slightly, but keep the pace honest.  He surprised everyone in the Reclamation when he took over the lead in the 2^nd half of the race and finished 3^rd at 38-1 against others in this field, establishing a career best speed of 115.  Again, there are lots of late runners in the field, all eager to get their shot, but longshot players may love the odds here.

11.   Awesome Quest   13-1

Last Three:      Diamond Stakes G3              16f    12^th    94 speed

                         Ferdichenko Cup  G3         12f     6^th    104 speed

                        Winter Cup  G1                   13f     5^th    107 speed

Awesome Quest has been in a slump.  He has not been on the board in his last 5 starts.  He likes to run near the front and will even set the pace on occasion.  But his current form shows him throwing in the towel early in the race and it’s really hard to make a favorable argument on his chances.

Trackman Picks:     7-2-8-5

Yoss Picks:            7-2-4-5

My Picks:              4-2-7-5