5 Million Draws Monsters To Dubai

With 5 million Sim dollars on the line, an amazing full field featuring 4 of the top 20 turf-route horses and 10 of the top 70 has shown up for the Grade 1 Sand Castle Fee Duty Stakes, to be run as the ninth race on Saturday’s incredible Dubai card.

The CPU oddsmaker has tabbed OTTO HAACK as the tepid 6/1 favorite, but truly any one of these can win this dazzling race with a top effort. Most likely, a speed-rating of close to 120 will be needed to get the job done against this deep, classy bunch.

1. PICK AND CHOSE dixon M Hull (7%) 10/1

This speedy Redoute’s Choice colt had a huge 2009, but things haven’t been so good thus far this year, with nasty stretch fades against high-quality fields in his two 2010 tries, including the one-mile Equinics turf race. There will probably be even more competition for the early lead here. Despite being ranked #44, this colt might be in over his head here.

2. KEPLER H marre R Sailor (3%) 15/1

Ranked #125, this Rock Of Gibraltar colt finishes strongly, usually strongly enough to “just miss”. Of course, with $5 mil in the purse, a near-miss here would be quite lucrative! This will be the colt’s eighth start since Halloween; this could explain the occasional misfires on his record. The 3% rider doesn’t raise confidence a whole lot.

2. NO PRICE TOO HIGH cheadle Q Cassell (16%) 11/1

10-furlong specialist, ranked #11 for his exploits, tries a shorter run here. He will likely be a bit further back in the early running than his custom. The son of Smart Strike gets a solid rider, and could upset the apple cart today if he can find top gear early enough.

2. ABSOLUT GOLD super21 J Montana (9%) 13/1

Son of Awesome Again needs to regain the form he had going a few races back when he won the G1 Parking Ticket in impressive fashion. His last effort was his worst in months; maybe the calm before the storm?

2. THEBUX STOP HERE buxpasser Z Edwards (11%) 14/1

This is another example of one who is hoping to return to his 2009 form when he won six races including two graded-stakes. Despite his poor 2010 efforts, the son of Giant’s Causeway is ranked #45. This is a tough spot for a horse to suddenly find past form; looking elsewhere.

6. K’S INSATIABLE wrecks2 C Wiedner (14%) 13/1

This Bernardini colt is certain to insure a hot pace, and could hang on for at least part despite his fade in his last, an Equinics race at 10 furlongs. This is the shortest race this guy has had in a good while, and he’s dangerous despite being the lowest-ranked runner here.

7. MAMBO WILDCAT jockeymax N Huhn (4%) 18/1

Here’s a blast from the past… This son of Forest Wildcat won a divisional Eclipse after a dominant 2yo season back in 2006, but it’s been a roller-coaster ride ever since. Right now, his form is on the down side, and his connection are beginning to wonder if he’ll ever race to the top again, or if he’s finally on the downhill end of his career. A decent allowance win last out gives hope, but at this point things look grim for today’s race.

8. OTTO HAACK oahaack S L Ledwith (21%) 6/1

Here’s the favorite, the 2009 Eclipse Older Turf champ. This talented son of Seeking The Gold may have an excuse for his poor Equinics showing, having come off just two weeks’ rest. Gets a top rider and should be very tough if he returns to the form he’s capable of.

9. MINESWEEPING CAT mtkplaz3 D Lakencher (14%) 10/1

This son of Mineshaft seems to have leveled off after an excellent mid-year run in 2009. He came up 6 lengths short in his biggest test, the BB Mile, but he was gaining slightly at the end. Probably needs a lifteime best to hot the board in this one.

10. KAZIMI grrm2 G Ayso (11%) 7/1

This 4yo son of Distorted Humor appears to be still improving, and just a little more improvement a scintillating win vs. a stronger-than-average small-stakes field last time out could get the job done today. However, he seems to be on one of those “every-other” patterns, and today would be an “other” should the pattern hold up.

11. TUSH texasace00 G Oldham (16%) 8/1 

Solid 3^rd in his last, an Equinics mile race, but another maddening near-miss, something this guy has done quite a bit. Still, the son of Pleasantly Perfect has faced top ones without flinching throughout his career, and he should be nearby when the real running starts in the stretch today.

12. PASAME LA BOTELLA victoria Y Jones (2%) 10/1

It’s kind of strange to say this regarding as horse as good as this son of Librettist… He may be in here just to help make sure the pace is hot to set up his stable-group mate, OTTO HAACK. He appears to be just a little below these in the class department, but he has enough early speed to make things interesting up front.

13. THE CALLING fairhaven5 H Harzheim (27%) 7/1

A real rivalry seems to have started up in the Sim; This 6yo son of Greeen Desert faced OTTO HAACK twice last year, finishing 3^rd to him in the Sourball Mile and then turning the tables in the BB Mile. They met again, but not on the track, as OTTO nipped him in a close vote in the Eclipse Older Turf voting last month. Don’t be surprised if these two are the last ones standing at the end of today’s race.

14. SURLY ranulff B Addison (14%) 12/1

Here is an up-and-comer who should benefit from the expected hotly-contested pace. He’s a strong-closing 4yo son of Mineshaft with limited experience competing in Graded company, but he’s been quite successful thus far. He’s also on a roll, with three strong wins in a row.

This is going to be one interesting race, and it’s likely to have a marked influence on next year’s Eclipse voting. Who’s gonna do it? Here’s my take:

1^st: OTTO HAACK charges up late and pulls it off.

2^nd: THE CALLING gets the lead late, but can’t hold off the charge of OTTO.

3^rd: SURLY finishes fast, but just misses the top two.

Of the front-runners, K’S INSATIABLE does the best, but the top three are just too much.

Good luck at the races!