The Thumb Route
It’s marathon day at the Spa, as a pair of Grade I races at two miles headline the card. The distaff version, The Thumb Route, could not have attracted a stronger field. Seven of the top twenty long-routing fillies and mares are here, including veteran Goldman Sachs, back to defend the title she won here last year in the inaugural running of the Thumb Route.
Joining her is the number one rated filly in the division, Corinna. Those two tangled a couple races ago, with the mare easily dispatching her younger rival. Corinna did not run her race today, and her connections expect a better result today.
Here is a look at the entire field:
PP1 FROZEN FOUR (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x MR. PROSPECTOR x SECRETARIAT) bred by temp2 and trained by dixiedotco (Dixiedotco Racing, 27%) Style: S, Odds: 12-1
Many people consider Dixiedotco the best trainer in the game, and whenever he sends one out, it deserves a long look, whatever the odds. This older mare dominated the last-track-restricted allowance scene in Dubai for several months, with five wins and a second in a streak of seven races. She went against the boys last month in an Equinics marathon, and while she was well-beaten, she did finish fourth, ahead of a lot of GW males. She has the class issue, what with most of her recent successes coming in very restricted conditions, and her speed figures are smallish compared to many, but worth considering. Jockey still looking for his first 2010 victory.
PP2 OFF THE HINGES(KY) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SEATTLE SLEW x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by mjk07 (Shamrock Stables, 13%) Syle: S, Odds: 11-1
Going into last month’s Equinics she looked overmatched and was dismissed at 22-1. But she stormed home a winner and today goes off at half those odds. This may be your last time to get such a payoff on a rapidly improving filly that has won half of her 12 lifetime races. This is a tougher test for sure, but she has surprised before. She’s going a half mile longer than she has ever run before, and that looks like a good thing. In almost all of her races, she’s just been getting going at the end. She’s been running like she wants this longer distance.
PP3 ANNE’S CHARISMA(JPN) (FORTY NINER x CHARISMATIC x BOLD BIDDER) bred and trained by jaybob (Jaybob Stables, 11%) Style: S, Odds: 6-1
It took her 14 tries to break her maiden, but this late-developer has come into her own since, winning about a third of her races, including an easy romp over an allowance field last time. The short odds are a bit of a surprise. She has three wins in 12 stakes tries, but her lone graded try was not good against a weak Grade III field. Her sable’s faith in her is understandable, however. Since March of 2007, over a course of 22 races, she has failed to earn a check in only one race. It’s just too bad that was her graded try.
PP4 GOLDMAN SACHS(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x SEATTLE SLEW x ALYDAR) bred by ozsteve, trained by bar131 (Bar131 Stables, 10%), Style: S, Odds: 4-1*
Last year was the first running of The Thumb Route, and this mare justified her favoritism and won easily. She’s back and is favored again. This year’s field look tougher than last year’s, and she goes off at slightly longer odds. No horse wins them all, and she was a victim of an upset last time against a small field, so she’s not a sure thing, but on paper she is clearly the one to beat. Mostly she offers us all a reminder that if you breed one this expensively, don’t give up early and drop her into $15,000 claimers, or else someone like Bar131 will pick up an outstanding graded winner cheaply.
PP5 BUFFALO RIVER(KY) (TOUCH GOLD x LEMON DROP KID x FUSAICHI PEGASUS) bred by lazyriver, trained by dorrin (Ridgecrest Champion Stables, 11%) Style: S, Odds: 14-1
It’s tough to imagine a scenario that favors this mare. In her 34th lifetime start, she tries stakes for the first time, and not just stakes – a Grade I featuring the top rated fillies and mares in the division. Her speed figures are well below par here, and while she is coming off a victory, she has never put together back-to-back wins. Her sole hope is that this is a quarter mile longer than she’s ever gone before. Perhaps she’s been dreaming about two miles all her life.
PP6 VINDIAN WELLS(KY) (VINDICATION x SADLER’S WELLS x BUCKPASSER) bred by fairhaven7, trained by speedkills (New Slew Lodge, 11%) Style: S, Odds; 15-1
The one with the longest odds in the race, she does bring some bona fides to the table. She was third behind Incredible Squall in the Grade I Scottsdale Stayer in September, third in the Grade I Saturday Night Girl in December, and then a longshot third last month in an Equinics race. All three Grade I efforts were at 14-16 furlongs. Her speed figures don’t overwhelm, and she may have preferred an off-track, but she’s shown she can get a piece of the purse, whatever her odds, and she’s shown she can excel at the distance. It’s hard to see her winning, but she could mess up some exotic tickets if ignored.
PP7 COYOTE SMUGGLER(KY) (A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x EL PRADO(IRE)) bred by kyclocker4, trained by bluegrass3 (Hoosier Empire, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 9-2
Won for fun odds-on last time in an overnight, but it’s the two races before that that interest us. Two races ago, at 14 furlongs, she lost by over six lengths to Goldman Sachs in a DelPenn Grade I. In the race before that, she beat that rival by four lengths in a 16 furlong Grade II affair. That’s your call. Is the more recent race more compelling, or the race at today’s distance? You might want to use a 12 furlong Grade I from last September to break your tie. It was Coyote over Goldman by 14 lengths that day.
PP8 THREE BUCK DOOT(JPN) (SILVER CHARM x WOODMAN x PRIVATE ACCOUNT) bred and trained by jamco (Gcutty Stables, 15%) Style: S, Odds: 12-1
She steps up in class after a mild upset in an overnight last time against a very strong field. Over her career, she’s been a very dependable money earner. Since breaking her maiden, she’s been out of the money only twice on the dirt. Unfortunately, in her two previous Graded tries, she has not finished within 10 lengths of the winner. The last race gives the most reason for optimism. It was her fastest race ever, and it was at today’s distance. She beat K’s Araku, a legitimate graded threat, and in her race before that she finished ahead of Incredible Squall. She’s in her prime and at what appears to be her best distance.
PP9 ETHELFERTH(KY) (MINESHAFT x DANZIG x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by belsup (Royal Belgian Kempen Farm, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 13-1
Daughter of Mineshaft closed out her three-year-old campaign with a Grade I try after three straight big wins over small allowance fields. The result was not pretty. She did significantly better last time in an Equinics race, picking up a respectable fourth. She’s yet to prove she can run with the likes of this company yet, but with only 15 races under her belt and getting better, she hopes to continue her improvement today.
PP10 CORINNA(KY) (A.P. INDY x DEPUTY MINISTER x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by Catullus (Catullus Stables, 14%) Style: S, Odds: 5-1
She was distanced two races ago in a Grade I DelPenn race, a race won by Goldman Sachs. If there were questions about her soundness, she smashed those questions with a spectacular run last time in a Grade III, earning a 112 speed figure over the 14 furlong race, picking up her fifth Graded win in only 18 starts, and vaulting he into the number one ranking in the long dirt division. Helping her to achieve that ranking is her success against the boys. She has two firsts and two thirds against them in graded races, including a first in the New Yorker and a third in the Breeders’ Bowl Marathon. Over her past ten starts, she has won every other race. The bad news about that pattern is that she won last time. The good news is Catullus’ confidence. Corinna was the last filly entered, and the strength of the field was obvious.
PP11 INCREDIBLE SQUALL(KY) (WAR CHANT x SUMMER SQUALL x EL JUSTO) bred and trained by tg (Tg Stables, 17%) Style: P, Odds: 13-1
While she hasn’t won in over six months, she’s been a factor in many big races. From a pace angle, she may be the key horse in this race. Every single runner in the field tends to come from off the pace, and all but she come from well back. In other words, Squall seems likely to open up a sizable early lead whether she wants to or not. She has never had the lead in either of the first two calls in her life, so no one knows whether that will embolden her. There is such class in this race that it might not matter, but the lone speed angle makes her an interesting longshot.
PP12 SUPER STYLIN'(KY) (SKY MESA x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x SUNDAY SILENCE) bred and trained by vansheen (Havana Estate, 16%) Style: S, Odds: 10-1
After two straight wins with triple digit speed figures, the last one against an ordinary overnight field, she tries Graded stakes for the second time. The pattern echoes something she tried last summer. After two allowance wins she tried a Grade II race at 16 furlongs. The result that day was an encouraging third despite odds that were longer than today’s. She faces much tougher in this field, though, and there are several obstacles for her to overcome. The outside post doesn’t help. The running style that is mirrored by several superior runners in here hurts. But the biggest hurdle is that she simply hasn’t shown the class that the top runners have.
Summary. There are many runners in here that can upset a well-reasoned trifecta ticket, but the winner seems likely to come from the top three favorites. I can’t bring myself to pick in the order of the morning line, so I’ll recommend a minor departure: Coyote Smuggler / Goldman Sachs / Corinna.