Neck Neck Nose & I Cross Paths Again
This week I have the luxury of covering the Upstate New York feature race, The Cayuga Lake Special. The luxury part being that the track is just a tad over an hour away from home, so no long oversea flights for me this weekend.
The Cayuga Lake Special (G1) goes a distance of 2 miles and is open to all horses age 4 or older. The weather looks delightful and the dirt track should provide some great speed numbers for this race.
I cover many races at the 2 mile distance, something I enjoy. However, in doing so, I have covered several races in which a horse by the name of Neck Neck Nose has appeared. Don’t get me wrong, but I do love this horse. But for some reason, he’s been on a long losing skid and I am afraid it is my fault. We’ll get to that later on, but for the record, I want everyone to know up front, that I emphatically deny that I had any knowledge of him being entered into this race when I accepted covering the race.
1. Regal Prince 17-1
2009 was not a good year for Regal Prince who was winless in 8 starts with a pair of seconds and a third. 2010 has not shown any improvement finishing well off the board in two starts, both graded races at 2 miles, with speeds of 100 and 94 respectfully. Regal Prince had a great 2008 campaign, winning 6 of 12 starts, but just cannot seem to get back into that groove. It doesn’t look like he will wake up in this race.
2. Pay Reggie 18-1
Pay Reggie has done rather well at the 2 mile distance, with a record of 4-0-1 in 6 starts. His speeds in his last four races at this distance range from 98 to 101. His only race where he was out of the money was his sole graded start, finishing 7th in The Buckeye Stayer. Pay Reggie has had a terrific run since being acquired by trainer Pitchfork. However, he will have a tough task in his second start at this level.
3. Nowpray 29-1
This Red Ransom bred horse has methodically worked his way up to the 2 mile route under the guidance of trainer Sixesplus1. His last 5 starts have been at this distance where he has sported a record of 3-1-0 with wins in The Rocky Top Derby (G2) and The Hit Man (G1). So why is he at 29-1?? Good question and I believe the answer is in his speeds, which have ranged from 86 to 99 over his last five. Higher speeds can be found in other entrants, but his two graded wins were big upsets (21-1 & 11-1) and this race could be the hat trick!
4. Dead Zone 5-1
There is noting Dead in this horse! Since the start of 2009, Dead Zone has a dozen starts and posted a record of 8-2-0. Six of his wins were in graded races. He is currently ranked #1 in distance races and has never lost a 2-mile race in five races. He has averaged a speed of 108 in his last 5 starts, is a strong closer and is one the others have to watch out for!
5. Rabid Antidentite 10-1
Rabid Anitdentite put in a nice 2nd in the Green Mountain Memorial (G1, 16f), rallying from well back and behind Dead Zone. His last 7 starts were at 2- miles and he has recorded a record of 3-3-0 with one race off the board that was on an off-track. Throwing out the off-track race, he has an average speed over this span of about 104. There is value here and longshot players may find some interest and possibly reward too!
6. Seven More Days 7-1
Over his last 10 starts, Seven More Days has averaged a speed of just over 105 which is pretty competitive. But there is a but, unfortunately. And that is he just hasn’t been able to put things together. Over the 10-race span, he has a record of 1-1-1 despite the good speed number. Trainer Fromtheu has decided to try this horse at 2 miles for the first time, adding a good ½ mile distance more than he has ever run before. Not sure if this will produce results, but is worth the gamble.
7. No More Chavez 13-1
Over his last 8 races, No More Chavez has not finished worse than second, quite a feat indeed! He has four wins and four places racing at distances from 14 to 16 furlongs. His last 5 starts at 16 furlongs have an average speed of 99. He has lots of early speed and has two seconds in his only 2 grades starts in the Seattle Stayer (16f, G1) and the New Orleans Stayer (14f, G3). His odds are lucrative and if the front end speed can hold on, there could be some nice payouts!
8. Agnelo 15-1
Agnelo comes back and tries to win his second championship in the Cayuga Lake Special. As the defending champion, Agnelo has been out of form lately. He’s been a dozen or more lengths behind in each of his last four starts. He likes to run just off the pace and that’s not a bad place to be in this race. He has struggled in graded races in his last six starts and this race would be one heck of a place to get back to the winner’s circle!
9. Dance Steps 5-1
It’s hard not to see Dance Steps being a factor in this race. This 5-year old has not posted a speed below 100 since April, 2008. It’s hard to tell how he will run, as he can come from the middle of the field, to laying just off the leaders to even being the leader. His last race was non-graded stake where he had a 14 length lead going into the final quarter and somehow managed to get beat in the final furlong to finish 2nd with a speed of 107 for 16f. While his speed numbers look terrific, averaging just over 105 over the last 5, he hasn’t won a race since September, 2008. He needs to find a way to the wire and get there with the lead.
10. My Destiny 9-1
2009 was a good year for My Destiny who recorded a record of 7-2-0 in 13 starts with 2010 looking just as promising, with a 1-1-1 record in 3 outings. He has averaged 106 in his last 5 starts for speed. He makes his 3rd career start in graded competition and shows promise. The main concern is he adds a half mile in distance but if breeding is an indication; he should be able to handle it.
11. Neck Neck Nose 9-1
Ok, here is Neck Neck Nose. I love the name of the horse, but for some reason, the winner’s circle seems to have escaped him for a long time now. I have seen him race before and even have picked him. But I seem to be the cause of his drought. I don’t know what I did to start it, but every time we cross paths, he just doesn’t finish first. The last time I refused to pick him and provide much coverage on him, and he came very close to winning. So, for the same reasons, I will not provide any further commentary on him and will not be picking him in this race. In fact, when the race starts, I may just wander over to the rest rooms and not even watch it. We’ll see if the luck changes.
12. Vinfinity 7-1
Vinfinity has an impressive record in routes of 9-1-2 in 13 starts. Much of that has been in allowance bid races with small fields. After completing a good stint of these races, Vinfinity won a non-graded race at 11f with a speed of 107 which was followed by a G1 win in the 12f Topicount Special and a career best speed of 113 facing a field of 14 for the first time since last February. His last race was an OK 6th in the Yearning to Breathe Free (G1, 12f) which had a huge field of 19. In this race, he was last by over 22 lengths that he cut down to 9 by the wire. He is adding ½ mile in distance which will buy him more time to make it to the front as long as he avoids spotting the leaders to much real estate early on.
13. Bad Kitty 19-1
Bad Kitty looks to be an up-and-coming horse. 13 route races have resulted in a 5-1-3 record for this 4-year old. He won his one start at 2 miles easily in January, winning by over 4 lengths and a speed of 102. Last month he made his first appearance in the graded stakes level and finished fifth going 14 furlongs in a speed of 100. I don’t think Bad Kitty will finish poorly, as the odds reflect. I also don’t see him hitting the board. This race looks to be more of an educational type race which will be very beneficial going forward.
14. Elusive High 10-1
Elusive High has shown excellent speed numbers of late, averaging a tad over 105 in his last five starts. Those races included a G1 win in the 10f Maybe Next Year Special as well as a second and third in two other G1 events. He is stretching out in distance, as he has never raced more than 11 furlongs before. The speed numbers have been great lately, but I’d like to see his effort first with the extra distance to see how well he handles it.
Trackman’s Picks: 4-9-6-12
Yoss Picks 4-11-9-5
My Picks 4-5-7-9