The Yanta Snez Stakes
This Saturday shapes up to big a big day for California racing, with four graded stakes and an overnight highlighting the card.
The first of the graded stakes is the 12th running of the Grade II Yanta Snez Stakes, $150,000 on the line for three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs.
The most accomplished of past winners is probably the 2008 winner, Miscalculation. She has gone on to win five more graded stakes and is currently the number six rated older distaff sprinter. Another previous winner is stakes record holder K’s Escape, who, while she won only one more graded stakes, ended her career with 21 wins in only 46 starts.
The race has been kind to all styles of runners, but it has been particularly kind to favorites – six favorites and two second-favorites have won the 11 previous races, and only once has a filly at longer than 10-1 odds had her picture taken.
For only the second time since 2001 the race failed to fill, attracting only eight fillies, and an eclectic group at that. Two of the top ten rated sprinters are in the race, two fillies are unrated in the division, and two make only their third career start today.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 FORTY CORINTHIANS(KY) (CORINTHIAN x FORTY NINER x ROBERTO) bred and trained by john7317 (John5539 Stables, 13%) Style: P Odds: 5-2
With four wins, including a win in the GI Getaway, in eight starts and a number three ranking in the division she looms as a deserving morning line choice. She gets the weakest competition she’s seen in a while. She was second choice in the Breeders Bowl but ran a disappointing seventh after unwisely chasing a hot pace. Two races back she was second against a very strong GI Frickazee Stakes field in an effort that gives her the best lifetime speed figure in the field. She shortens back to a sprint today. If she’s ready after a two month layoff, she’s clearly the one to beat.
PP 2 PRECIOUS PASSION(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SECRETARIAT x MR. PROSPECTOR), bred and trained by wv (Wv Stables, 11%) Style: P Odds: 6-1
Precious was racking up wins and points against four- and five-filly fields and then tackled a DPCD field last time. She did well to run an even sixth against a full and very tough field. The last horse entered, her connections may have been attracted by the relatively short field. She certainly has an easier task ahead of her today than she faced three weeks ago, but still it looks is a tougher field than any she has beaten.
PP 3 ISSA(KY) (JOHANNESBURG x SPEIGHTSTOWN x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by hipica (Hipica Stables, 10%) Style: E Odds: 9-2
For the third straight race, Issa finds herself against Forty Corinthians. That Issa was able to get clear from the Breeders’ Bowl field last time is impressive but not surprising. She has owned the first two calls in all seven of her lifetime races. There are a couple other early pace fillies in here, but if Issa is going for the lead again, she is again likely to make it. She’s been caught in her last five races, the last two times by the favorite and others. The two month layoff, the maturing as she turns three, the return to sprints, the enlistment of a jockey off to an explosive 2010 start are all positive signs. This number-eight ranked filly is a tempting choice.
PP 4 THE MED ACADEMY(ENG) (MEDICEAN (GB) x GRAND SLAM x ROYAL ACADEMY) bred and trained by tyedye (The Big Oil Conglomerate [Ft. LordPye], 14%) Style: E/P Odds: 10-1
The last time she faced a field this big was also the last time she tried a graded stakes. The results then were not good, but Big Oil expects something different this time, and he has reason to be hopeful. Her last race, only three weeks ago, was a four-horse overnight, and that usually doesn’t impress us. But it was against the boys and she closed ground on a runaway graded-winner who would likely be favored against this field. Only once has the Yanta Snez been won by one with odds these long, and she would have to improve her lifetime speed number by over 10 points to win this, so it ain’t likely, but it could happen. You heard it here first.
PP 5 ELITE WINE R(KY) (MR. GREELEY x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred by fleetwood, trained by eliteracing (Elite Racing Stables, 22%) Style: E/P Odds: 8-1
Mr. Greeley has had more success producing sprinters than routers, and after a couple of routes where Wine couldn’t finish in the front half of the field, she returns to a one-turn race. Through last August she looked awfully good in such races. A 79 speed figure was pretty quick back then for a two-year-old filly, and if we can extrapolate that to where she should be now, we get a figure that makes her competitive. 85% of her earnings came in that last sprint. Hmm, it seems the biggest reason to like her is what she did on a sloppy track five months ago. That doesn’t instill a lot of confidence.
PP 6 BRUSHBACK PITCH(KY) (SMART STRIKE x BROAD BRUSH x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by mklove (Shamrock Stables, 12%) Style E Odds; 3-1
What a tough call here. Brushback has had no trouble beating a couple of Dubai fields in her first two starts, winning for fun. This filly has the highest last-out figure in the field, and according to some, she looked like she could have run faster if she needed to. I’ll let her prove a bit more before I recommend her, but, wow, she’d be no surprise.
PP 7 EROEH(ENG) (PIVOTAL(GB) x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT) bred and trained by salamander (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 24%) Style: P Odds: 5-1
Given owns something we all wish we had: a graded winning A.P. Indy x Storm Cat broodmare. Putting her to Pivotal looks like a wise and formidable choice this early in the filly’s career. And it is early in her career. This is only her third start, and while she won her first two starts easily like the favorite she was, her times were not that great. Like the one just to her inside, though, she probably could have gone faster if she needed to. And like with the one to her inside, I’ll wait a race or two before I’ll pick in a graded race, but, again, wow, there is no limit to this filly’s future.
PP 8 NETTIE(KY) (VAN NISTELROOY x OUT OF PLACE x MISWAKI) bred and trained by xxxstable (Xxxstable Stables, 10%) Style: E Odds: 11-1
How fair is this? She finished ahead of Elite Wine R in her last race by two lengths and yet this filly is the one listed as the longest shot in the race. Like three others in here, she returns to sprints after a two month layoff and two route races. In her favor is that she is one of only a couple graded winners here, although it turns out the field she beat in the GII Sorgento in August was not strong – she remains the only graded winner from the field. Working against her is that her best races have been on off tracks and, even worse, she needs the lead to win. With Issa in the race, she’s going to have a hard time making the lead, much less an easy lead.
Summary. Questions abound. Just how fast are Brushback and Eroeh? I don’t know. How will Forty Corinthians and Issa return after a layoff and turning a year older? No idea. So here’s a stab in the dark: Issa / Forty Corinthians / Brushback.