Anyone Seen The Encino Man?

The Encino Man Stakes is a race restricted to 4 year old fillies and mares. Now why do they call this race the Encino Man??? If only the girls can race in it, why not call it the Encino Woman??? Sounds sexist to me. Anyways, at least the girls will love it’s location. This G2 race will be run in sunny California on the fast and dry dirt track, going a distance of 8.5 furlongs. A decent purse of $150k is up for grabs and a modest field of 7 are up for the challenge.

1. Shaft the Skunk 7-1

Shaft the Skunk takes up her first career graded stakes race. Shaft just saw a 4 race win streak come to an end last month when she ran in the Blazing Saddles Breeder’s Showdown Distaff (9f) where she finished seventh in what was her toughest race to date. In fact, it was the only race in her 11 starts that she did not hit the board.

Shaft the Skunk has averaged just under 103 in the speed category over her last 5 races. The speed is a few notches below her foes in this race, but she does hold a trump card. Shaft is the only horse in the field with early speed and she has the opportunity to run off with the win.

2. Candy Spot 9-2

Candy Spot has been consistently on the board, hitting it in every start except two races. Her first career race was off the board and her sole graded race was also, both are forgivable since she did finish 5th and 4th respectfully and collected some purse money.

Candy has won her last two races, both non-graded stakes, in speeds of 112 and 105 running a mile and 8.5f respectfully. Her speeds have averaged just over 103 in the last 5 outings and she will be making a run for the top spot around the half-mile marker.

3. Crossing Dyna 4-1

Trainer JMahls took a gamble last June and it wasn’t at the wagering window. The gamble involved taking Crossing Dyna off the turf and running her for the first time on the dirt. What made this daring was that the horses first dirt event was the G3 Danny Tario Oaks (9f). The move to the dirt wasn’t looking good as Crossing Dyna trailed the field by 8 lengths going into the final quarter. But Crossing fired up and rallied to win this race in a speed of 104. Quite impressive for first time dirt starter.

Since that start, Crossing Dyna has raced in a total of 5 graded dirt races and posted a record of 1-1-2. She has a strong late stride and has an average speed of 105 in the last 5 dirt starts. She has found a new home on the dirt, is an experience grade runner and needs to be respected.

4. Diabolu’s Paciscor 4-1

Diabolu was the third place finisher in the prestigious Bluegrass Oaks in 2009. She is also very well acquainted with graded racing, competing in 8 events and posting a record of 2-2-2. While she has averaged a speed of 103 over her last 5, she has been sharp in her two most recent starts.

Diabolu comes off a second in the G2 The Cool Hand Luke (8F) where she posted a career best of 111. This followed a win in the G3 Bluegrass Cup Distaff (8.5f) by two lengths and a speed of 107. This horse may be approaching her peek form and should be considered.

5. Empire Haack 7-2

Usually Empire Haack can be found in the back of the field in the early part of the race, but that was not true in the G2 The Hunted by Lions (9f). In this race she took positioning near the front runners and it paid off. Empire won her first graded race and set a career speed mark of 112 in the race.

In 7 graded starts, Empire Haack is 1-1-1 which doesn’t look too awe inspiring, however, all three tallies on the board occurred in each of her last 3 graded starts. Since the start of 2009, her speeds have increased with each race and she has averaged 105 over the last five. A speed of 112 is hard to improve upon, but she can still win this race even with a lower speed figure.

6. Born to Danz 5-2

Born to Danz has landed on the board 14 of 16 starts on the dirt. Twice she has been off the board and they were in graded starts. She has 5 starts at this level, which means she’s tagged the board three times, winning twice and placing once.

Born to Danz has averaged just under 108 in speed over her last 5 starts and she finished second last time out behind Empire Haack in the G2 The Hunted by Lions (9f) defeated by just shy of 2 strides in a strong speed of 110. She will be looking for revenge.

7. Mommy Ugh 11-1

As the longshot in the race, Mommy Ugh does seem to be at a disadvantage. She has only surpassed the 100-speed barrier twice in her career which occurred this past summer. Once was on a sloppy track, where she seems to perform extremely well.

Mommy Ugh has three graded starts on the dirt with a second in the Miss Stallion G3, 6f. This horse looks competitive at the non-stakes level but she’ll need to do extremely well to beat this field. She’s at a speed disadvantage and is adding 2 furlongs to her normal running distance.

My Picks: 5-6-4-3
Trackman: 6-5-2-3
Yoss Tipsheet: 5-6-3-4