Only eleven starters will line up for the Narrowly Missed Stakes, but it looms as a really interesting race, as evidenced by the early market. Of the eleven lining up, the form of nine of them is good enough to see them rated in single figures. Second longest in betting, at 10/1 is Quandry, who also makes a solid case for consideration, while even the outsider, Edgeley Park, has a recent win over this distance, and in a handy time. Million dollar earner, Armstrong, at 9/2, will carry the favorite followers money, and he meets a field full of strong opposition.
The Narrowly Missed Stakes is a $100,000 Grade 3 contest to be run over seven and a half furlongs on a superb dirt surface in Illinois
Let’s get to that early market:
9/2 – Armstrong
5/1 – Deputy Ed
6/1 – Nobody Panic
7/1 – Fontaine Blue
8/1 – Pine Bay, Daddy’s Storm
9/1 – Explore, KY Wildcat
10/1 – Quandry
21/1 – Edgeley Park
We’ll look at the field in betting order
9/2 – # 11 – Armstrong – The oldest and most experienced campaigner in the event, this seven year old, million dollar earner, warrants his place at the top of the betting, through a lifetime of quality performances, although he’s never raced better than he is right now. Although this field is full of fast sprinters, many of them are registering impressive speeds against lower opposition. This bloke’s last two wins were against ungraded company, but he won a Grade 3, his first Graded trophy, just half a dozen starts back, and he lines up here off a close third in the G1-The Ireneo Lequisamo, two weeks ago. Top form, a class horse and a top jockey will combine to create every chance of victory for Paddy’s son of Afleet from the ‘G’ rated mare Brittany Too (Irish River / Secretariat).
5/1 – # 2 – Deputy Ed – Racing in arguably the best form of his career, this six year old scratchbred son of Eddington / Forty Niner / Deputy Minister has had his last five starts over the same trip as he faces here. He’s won two of them, and run second and third in two others. Add to that, the fact that he’s registered triple digits in each of his last half dozen, and we have a consistent runner who is bound to pose a serious threat once again. Looking for question marks, he’s never contested a Graded event in his thirty nine trips to the track thus far, so that remains a significant step to take. But it’s impossible not to be impressed with that ungraded victory in Arkansas back in early October. In a field of ten, he won convincingly, registering a speed figure of 115. The crystal ball says this will be won in sub 1.28. This horse is capable of producing that time on a fairly regular basis. Breeder / trainer Joenova has secured the services of a most capable rider and the barrier draw has been kind.
6/1 – # 6 – Nobody Panic – The thing that impresses with the first look at the form guide, is his recent form over the trip he faces today. Three starts at seven and a half furlongs on the PP formpage have him taking the money on each occasion. Interestingly they are the only three races he’s ever contested at this trip so Goldnmarlin, his third trainer, has obviously found the key. Or did this runner just need a change of scenery? A magnificent pickup in a 20k claimer, after basically looking nothing better in his first dozen or so runs, this superbly bred scratchbred son of Giant’s Causeway / Mr. Prospector / Nijinsky II has registered triple digits in each of his dozen for this latest (and surely last) owner. He still has a minor question mark surrounding Graded ability, but he’s got the breeding, the speed and he’s stakes placed. It will be no surprise if he keeps his perfect seven and a half record intact.
7/1 – # 5 – Fontaine Blue – The most lightly raced runner in the field, this Bighoss bred and trained five year old has plenty of things in his favor. He’s a Graded placed, dual stakeswinner in an event which features a lot of fast horses, but not a lot of horses who’ve established their speed against Graded quality opposition. Patiently prepared, he worked his way through the classes consistently, gradually improving as he went along. While most of the others have reached a (admittedly high) plateau, this bloke looks as if he may still have improvement to come. I’m particularly taken by his most recent outing. Motoring home over seven furlongs for second in the G3-Strong Leader, the extra half a furlong may be all he needs, especially considering he won his one and only previous try at the journey. A son of Awesome Again, he’s the only progeny (Why?) of Touch Me, a half million dollar earning, Graded winning daughter of A.P. Indy / Danzig. Expect another big run this week
8/1 – # 9 – Pine Bay – This lightly raced seven year old lines up for his tenth consecutive run over this seven and a half furlong trip. The bad news is that he’s won only two of those previous nine. The better news is that those two wins came from his last three outings, establishing his current formline. It’s simply impossible to totally discount the chances of a horse which has won eight times at this trip, especially given that three of those wins came against black type opposition. He’s a son of Sligo Bay, from Bluff Bite (Pine Bluff / Habitat), an ‘open’ mare with three progeny, all carrying black type. Elranchoti is the third, and most successful trainer of this runner. The horse loves this trip, he’s registered triple digit speed ratings at each of his last eleven starts, and he’s won two of his last three. He needs to establish himself as a Graded runner, but he shouldn’t be far away.
8/1 – # 10 – Daddy’s Storm – The youngest horse in the race, and the only four year old, this graduating runner makes his first step into Graded territory after establishing his credentials impressively at the lower levels. A winner of his last two, he’s the only runner to be able to make that claim, giving his current formline added impetus. Breeder / trainer Kk1039 was content to allow him to thoroughly mature as a two and three year old, not venturing into the black type ranks until start number fourteen in September last year, and not stepping up to the next rung until now. If you’d like more positive data, he’s tried the seven and a half furlong journey three times before, winning on every occasion. More than half way down the betting order, the form of this scratchbred son of Scat Daddy / Two Punch / Storm Cat simply underlines the depth of this field. He’s a genuine chance.
9/1 – # 3 – Explore – Yet another with hard to fault formline, and yet another with a proven love of this distance. Stable connections are sure to be lining up to support their charge, as he’s a most enticing price, and there’s nothing on the formpage to suggest his form is inferior to that of his opposition. Do we look for question marks? I guess that’s our job. Did the trainer really think so little of him that she’d risk him for a tag? And not just once…but twice. Very brave, Topicount! OK. So we’ve got an ex-claimer. Winner of a starter allowance just three starts back. This field should be far too hot. But it’s not! We’ve already suggested that 1.28 will be competitive, and he won that starter in faster time. Class may be a query, but he’s not the only one tackling the Graded waters for the first time. A son of Seeking The Gold, from Traveller (Exchange Rate / Roar). Mum was a multiple stakes winner who banked three quarters of a million. This bloke could close the gap a tad this weekend. If you like him, he’s at generous odds.
9/1 – # 7 – KY Wildcat – The price looks more than enticing given that this runner has won four of his last five, two of them over this trip, and has never raced in better fettle. There are a couple of reasons why the oddsmakers are being so generous. He’s not the most consistent runner in the event, this is his first run in Graded company, and his times are a tad shy of some of his opponents. Let’s take those minuses one at a time. Inconsistent; Maybe once, but he’s won four of his last five. Lack of Graded experience; That puts him on a par with most of the others. Not fast enough, well, he’ll need to run 1.28, but those two 110 and 111 runs recently just about equal that requirement. Nope. If you like Asta’s son of Bluegrass Cat, go right ahead and bet. His Grade two winning dam GD’s Olympic Star (Forty Niner / Sadler’s Wells) has already produced three stakes placed offspring. Perhaps it’s time for that elusive black type winner.
10/1 – # 4 – Quandry – Finally into double figures, and with nine horses ranked above him in the betting, connections may have a right to feel out of their depth. And if we only look back at the most recent races they may be right. But is he hopeless? Far from it. He’s a multiple stakeswinner, with an impressive ten from thirty strike rate. He’s got no Graded form, but there are others ranked above him who have less. Some with less black type experience, and some who’ve tried and failed multiple times at the higher level. Rocket33 Bred this one from scratch, reasonably inexpensively, using the blood of Officer / Boston Harbor / Cee’s Tizzy. As he closes in on half a million dollars, he’s proven to be a most astute breeding. I’m concerned with his most recent form, and cannot suggest him with confidence till we see a turnaround, but, at his best, he’d give supporters a good run for their money.
21/1 – # 8 – Edgeley Park – The longest priced runner in the race, and by a substantial margin, on recent form you wouldn’t give him any chance. His last four speed ratings have all been sub100, while he’s ling up against runners boasting a dozen consecutive triple digits. He’s also a perennial runner-up, which bodes badly in a field of this depth. He’s won only three from thirty, despite racing against weaker, and was nowhere to be seen at his only run in Graded company. Now let’s try and find the positives. We have to go back to Eastern Kentucky last March. But that was the last time he tried this trip and, although it was just a conditioned allowance, he won impressively in a time which could nearly be competitive here. I wouldn’t put my money on a repeat, but if Boxerwood’s scratchbred son of Alderberan / Kris S. / Afleet can recapture that run, he may run the race of his life
Summary: Eleven runners. Nine strong chances, one fair chance and a roughie who’s not completely hopeless. I could end up looking foolish here. Anyway….here goes
Fontaine Blue – Will relish the final hundred yards
Daddy’s Storm – Loves the trip.
Armstrong – You don’t win a million without being good.