Second Coming, but First Time for Some

The Second Coming

Grade II

A mile and one quarter

Firm Turf

$150,000

All horses, 3 years old and up

 

Only seven compete in this New Zealand co-feature, and after the favorite on the rail, we are a little light on graded stakes resumes.  I’ll go with COMPLETELY ALONE(KY), maybe taking a little flyer on THE QUIET DANE(KY).

 

PP  Horse ID  Horse  Owner  Jockey  Odds 

1 121542 EXCLUSIVE HABITAT(ENG)  iant8  F Inzamam  6/5

 

Number 11 turf router is favored here, and why not after a dominating performance to end last year in the Eclipse.  Problem is, that was followed by a lackluster second to DISTORTED COLONY(KY) in the Marcos Footwear in January, and that one did not flatter when ninth with a 94 in the Kyoto.  While the going in the Marcos was only good, he has liked a bit of squish to the course in the past, so the drop in speed may be an indication of a down form cycle.  That question is hard to take at 6/5.

    

2 110313 COMPLETELY ALONE(KY)  sender  S Dahl  7/2 

 

My goodness, he is bred from stern stuff (GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER x KRIS S.), and the young four-year-old may be an up-and-comer.  He can run in the 107-109 category, and he is usually mid-pack with good position.  Maybe he was too far behind in the Well Resume last out, but despite his fifth placing he was only one and a half lengths behind at the wire.  He was trounced in two Grade 1s to end his sophomore campaign, including EXCLUSIVE HABITAT(ENG)’s Eclipse, but I’d say now is a good time to try the graded level again.

 

  

3 149544 MOTION SICKNESS(ENG)  riotmagic  S Daum  5/1    

 

Motivator (GB) son has popped a few big ones in his recent career, but it’s been spotty overall.  The cutback to ten furlongs very well may help, as his slowest recent race was a marathon 14-furlonger.  His best technique seems to be to stay in touch with the leaders, so riotmagic may employ that strategy again today.  I’d want longer odds if I were to wager on him.

 

 

4 178045 THE QUIET DANE(KY)  racetrade3  L Bell  49/1  

 

Now here’s a mystery horse: a two-time starter, and never on turf, he just broke his maiden three weeks ago.  It was a nice late move he made, but this is a huge jump in class.  The bottom part of this highbrow scratchbred says he will like ten furlongs on turf just fine; Bernardini as sire, and being a three-year-old against mostly elders, speak against it.  The odds are fair, and he is worth a look if you like longshot chances.

 

5 146127 HATH NO BOUNDS(FR)  belairstud  P Chamberlin  9/1    

 

Steps in with no stakes wins or even placings, and to date he has yet to emulate multiple graded-placed Nureyev mom WHIRLED PEAS.  The lone 109 in his record in a French allowance stands out, and he does enter off an easy allowance win in Turkey at this distance on 2/7.  I’ve been wrong many, many times before in my prognosticating, but I’m going to go against him here.

 

6 138191 TEXAS ROCKS(JPN)  brenbren  F Chute  10/1

 

He’s a solid product of A-rated mare and early-sim-days standout TEXAS PROJECT, who also raced for trainer brenbren.  He’s four and a Rock of Gibraltar guy who looks to be just coming into his own.  His last three speeds have been over the century mark, all in allowances.  They’ve also been at about a mile, so it’s a bold step to look for a first stakes win in a Grade II and at an unfamiliar distance.  I don’t doubt the experienced brenbren can pull it off, but maybe an exacta?

 

   

7 75967 SKIDDED(KY)  rose  O Rann  7/2    

 

This horse steadily improved over his 2008 sophomore campaign, ending with a 114 in the Ray’s Sword at Utah.  He had a short break, and his 2009 openers have not been quite so fast.  He arrives from British Columbia, where he dueled with ORDER IN THE COURT(KY) for most of the ten furlong stakes, yielding toward the end to finish second.  The speed of 103 was disappointing considering what this colt can do.  A win would certainly relaunch his ascent.  A loss may mean the best move for him, as an Awesome Again who has never tasted dirt, is to try him on the other surface.