Oaks Preview in Florida
The inaugural running of the Miss Bonnie Stakes-G2 may give a real preview towards the Bluegrass Oaks, as it is one of the few preps at 9 panels. It comes as no surprise that this race has attracted a full field of 14 hopefuls. Only one filly has previously tried this distance, so handicappers will get a real test of their skills on Saturday, especially since this seems to be an evenly matched bunch.
Westmead Fusaichi leads the post parade. The pigeon2 homebred has displayed a closing kick in each of her starts. The gunmetal grey worked her way through her conditions, then captured the East A La Slew Memorial at a flat mile with an 87 SF. She was a dull ninth in the Movieland Starlet-G1, passing tired horses late, before showing a better kick to grab third last time out in a G2 mile event (99 SF). Will need to take another step forward here and show that she is more than a miler, but it would be no surprise if she aced the test.
After a clunker in the Golden Red-G2, Funny and Brave has been on fire for hillhouse, taking down three straight stakes, with speed figures of 94, 89 and 90. More importantly, the Distorted Humor miss has won from off the pace, on the lead, and the stalking position, which makes her dangerous, regardless of pace scenario. The leggy brown filly has the services of top rider Darling, and is going to be tough to beat. She should appreciate the extra distance, closing from 9th to 5th in the BB Juvenile Filly, and other than that one clunker, has been remarkably consistent.
Calle4 apparently hopes that Chill of A Halo can relax with the extra distance. It almost worked in the Santa Jezebel-G3, when the Dehere filly led most of the way before having to settle for second (98 SF). FOr the most part, Chilly has one running style, go from the gate, make the lead, and then hang on. She regressed a little last time out, tiring to finish fifth after dueling early. The low percentage jock is a concern, given the rating task ahead of him. Still, she has won on more than one occasion at a mile, so she may be able to add to that tally.
Maleficent took five starts to break her maiden, but has now won three of her last four, including the Capote Storm Stakes last time out (92 SF). The daughter of Corinthian likes to lag early and make a move on the far turn, and with more distance, she’s gone from strength to strength. Her speed figures will need to improve a little to threaten the favorites, but there’s quite a bit to like about the sunshine34 homebred, and she could end up quite the value play at 17/1.
Ibanez sends Hurtin Goron into the fray. The homebred daughter of Giacomo seems to have inherited her sire’s running style, coming from the clouds and making a move in the stretch. She won the Gordie’s Seattle Special (87 SF), then flattened out to be a nonthreatening fifth in the Myocardial Infarction-G3 five weeks ago. Speed figures need to come up a little, and she has more starts than most of the competition, but has a nice jock aboard and is certainly capable of pulling out a mild upset at 13/1.
Railways, shot towards the top of her division last year, finishing second in the Frickazee Stakes-G1 and the Movieland Starlet-G1 (98 SF), but has also tossed in some clunkers, including the Breeders Bowl (although that can be excused by the three week turnaround), and the Santa Jezebel seven weeks ago. Gets leading rider Gardner, so the real question for the pwong01 homebred is which filly will show up? If she brings her A game, her speed figures and running style suggest this might be her first stakes win. Clearly, her connections are hoping that is the case.
Afc2 had some stellar three year old fillies last year, and clearly hopes Subhuman will give him a similar ride this season. The Mineshaft homebred is the only filly to have tried this distance, and it was a successful venture, resulting in a gate to wire romp (94 SF). She made her stakes debut last out, finishing third, and hopes to show better this time around, with a return to her best distance. If she can answer the class test, look out.
Cocoa Beach is another one new to the stakes ranks, finishing third in both of her tries, including a start last time out over an off track (95 SF). She also won a one mile allowance two starts back (96 SF). However, the question surrounding this chevrolet homebred is whether she is a miler, or wants further. The off track muddies the analysis slightly. Has room to improve, and this Forestry filly could pull off the upset.
Touch, who is not surprisingly a daughter of Touch Gold, has been solid at a mile, winning a pair of stakes before closing for third in the Mother Story-G1 (94 SF). Last time out, she was closer to the pace, but that didn’t work out so well, as she tired for fourth. If she reverts to the Mother Story form, she could be dangerous for owner/breeder backnine.
Super has a presence in the field with Davidoff. The Seeking the Gold filly won an allowance two starts back, then closed mildly for third in the Dynathe Turk Handicap (90 SF). Speed figures are a little lighter than some of the favorites in the field, and has yet to win a stakes, but has dangerous connections, and is eligible to improve with the distance.
Respond To This is a royally bred homebred filly for sender2. However, in spite of her royal breeding, she has yet to crack the 90 SF mark, which puts her at a disadvantage based on past performances. Still, those speed figures were good enough to win the Walnut Tree Stakes-G2 (89 SF) as a juvenile. The eyecatching filly also, other than a clunker in the Mother Story, has shown a closing kick and given every indication of wanting to go farther. Still, the speed figures are a bit of a concern, and she’ll have to show that she, like others, have continued to improve at three. Still, it would be no shocker if she did move to the next level.
The filly with the least experience in the field is kimball’s Royal Genius, who is unbeaten in three career starts. The daughter of Smarty Jones has two 88 SFs at one mile and 1 1/16 miles. Gets a real class test here, but has done nothing wrong, and there’s no reason to think she couldn’t take another step forward here. Could be a value bet at 16/1.
Sam812218 has got to be a bit frustrated with Time To Pretend. The homebred Distorted Humor wants to live up to her name, mixing up easy stakes wins, with races where she literally spits out the bit. Was an even third last time out in the Los Vinegrette-G2. A bit of a concern in that she has tired in both of her starts at distances longer than a mile. On the flip side, she is a daughter of G1 turf filly Project Matter, making her a half-sister to Chestnut Stakes-G1 winner Donner, and Shiny Gem-G2 winner Rhymenocerous, so there is no reason, pedigree-wise, why she can’t get the extra distance.
Last in the post parade, but certainly not least, is amsterdam’s Betsy. The Zeditave filly is a closer who has improved with age and distance, peaking with a closing second in the Davola Dane-G2 (99 SF) last time out. Gives every indication that she wants more ground, and appears to be peaking at the right time.
Good luck to all of the connections and their entries.