Ackland Cup
The Grade I Ackland Cup, a two mile marathon, features a full field of horses age 3 and up, going for a nice $750,000 purse. Achieving a speed of 100 is not an easy level to achieve, especially going 2 miles on the turf. However, this is what will be needed to be victorious in this race and fortunately there are several contenders who can achieve this plateau.
1. Not So Kool Aid 8-1
This horse loves the marathon and in eight 2-mile races, he has posted a record of 5-2-0 which includes a win in the G2 Longchamp Marathon. She has been on a rest break, making her 2009 debut in this race after a 4-month layoff (last ran Nov. 1st). His speeds have been at the 100-level and he should make a good showing coming in freshly rested.
2. Holdo 4-1
Holdo has been established as the favorite in this race by the sim oddmakers. Holdo has been in a dry spell his last 6 graded race outings, failing to hit the board. He is coming off a win in the non-graded Father Ice Memorial (12f), which turned out to be an easy field for him, winning by 5 strides. Holdo has been excelling above the 100 speed level for over a year now and has even thundered past the 110 level on several occasions. He is going the 2-mile distance for the first time. The furthest race to-date for him is a 14f allowance race back in 2007, but don’t put much weight on it. He was heavy favorite at 1-5 in short field of 4 on an off-track. I think he’ll top the 100 speed level again, but I’m not sold that he will win.
3. Muggsy 11-1
Muggsy brings a two race win streak into this race and will have to put in his best effort to keep it going. He scored both wins at 14f in non-graded races, winning against short fields by about 4 lengths in each race. He charted a speed of 106 in his last race, a career best. Muggsy will probably be a trailer in the race and keep enough in reserve to make a late run for the wire. Muggsy will need to put in another race like his last to take the glory in this race.
4. Tilt a Whirl 10-1
One of two ladies running in the race, Tilt a Whirl is coming off a nice win in the Round Well Stakes (16f). She came back from spotting the field nearly a dozen lengths before the 2nd call to run off to a 5 length victory. The speed of 98 was better than that, since the race was on a good track surface. She looks to be the better of the two gals running in the race. However, the oddmakers may know something about Tilt a Whirl. In graded stake races where her odds were 8-1 or higher, she has hit the board once in 6 races. Her odds here may be making a statement of her chances.
5. Maadly 21-1
Maadly is moving back into the graded level and has her work cut out for her. She races well at 2 miles and usually walks off with some kind of purse check. Her biggest problem is her ability to surpass the 100-speed level. She’s only done this once in her career and it seems unlikely that she will excel to this level in this race.
6. K’s Zarak 7-1
K’s Zarak is a horse to fear. He has won 12 of 18 turf starts and finished on the board in 17 of these races. Zarak has two G1 victories going 2-miles and regularly exceeds the 100-speed threshold. Jockey Inzamam (37% win) gets the mount for the first time and is fully capable of taking this pace setting stalker to the winners circle.
7. Shacklebolt 12-1
Shacklebolt is making returns to the graded level after an absence of nearly a year. Shacklebolt has been putting in decent route races lately at the allowance and non-graded race levels. He has been posting speeds in the mid to upper 90 range. In 10 grades starts, he has hit the board only once and looks like an unlikely victor.
8. Not So Cheap 9-1
A winner of 6 of his last 8 starts, Not So Cheap is making his career debut in the graded stakes level. He loves the grass, winning 8 of 13 starts, including two races at 16f. He is capable of surpassing the 100-speed level, however, in the two races at 16 f, he speeds lagged a bit, dropping down to the upper 90-level. He has been running in fields of 7 or less for the past year and now faces a more intimidating sized field. I think the odds are pretty low for a first-time starter in this G1 race and I’d like to see how he fares at this level before supporting him.
9. Fezzene 12-1
It may have taken Fezzene 9 races to break his maiden, but after he achieved that, he’s failed only once to finish first or second. In his last 13 grass starts, he has amassed a record of 7-5-0. He has won 4 of his last 5 starts, all at 16f. Like Not So Cheap, he is also making his debut at the graded level. Only difference is that he has shown he could win a 16f event with a speed over 100. He should be interesting to watch, but draws jockey Childress (3% win) which isin’t going to add much value.
10. Footsteps on Grass 14-1
Footsteps may be showing signs of wear and tear. He hasn’t won a race since last July (G2 Dawn to Dusk Cup) and has hit the board only once since then. Two of his last 4 races were in speeds below 90. He may be in need of a rest and his current form doesn’t get one too excited.
11. The Oil Rules All 6-1
The Oil Rules All put in a surprising effort in his last start, winning the G1 Jai Alai Park Turf (11f) at 13-1 and an eye opening speed of 116. In his short career of 7 starts, this colt has hit the board 6 times, pulling off 4 wins. The Oil Rules All is a well rounded racer who can handle both the dirt and turf and has great potential. He’s a hard, late closing horse and adds 5 furlongs to his last race. The unknown is whether he will like going the longer distance.
12. Paul the Apostle 12-1
This horse has recently switched from the dirt to the turf and he has shown a liking to both turfs. Paul the Apostle is coming off a second in the Wild Pod Handicap, posting a speed of 96 going 16 furlongs. He has reached the 100 speed on the grass already, posting a 100 and 101 in distances of 12 and 14f. But history hasn’t been too kind for Paul the Apostle in graded stakes. He has tried this level five times before with a third as his best finish. He seems to be outclassed in this race.
13. Alzwell 26-1
Alzwell is taking a huge jump up to this G1 race. He is coming off a 60k claimer, in which trainer Stupendous gobbled him up. He easily won the 14f claimer by 7 long lengths, but the speed is the concern. He posted a 94 in this race and in his career of 39 starts, has only broke the 100-level once, making him an unlikely winner in this race.
14. Awesome Bambino 17-1
Awesome Bambion loves the grass and has surmounted a record of 8-4-2-1 thus far. He has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all allowance races, posting a career best speed of 105 at the end of December going 14f. He should be able to handle the 16f in this race, but I am concerned with him as he makes his debut in stakes race.
K’s Zarak gets my nod to take this race. He has won graded races in the past and he rarely misses on the turf and is a dominating entrant. It’s hard to see him not walk away with any purse money.
Not So Kool Aid has been running well and is coming in off a long rest. The only thing that may hurt him is the length of the rest and he may need a race to tune up. I think he’ll be ready to strike.
Frezzene has been on a roll lately. He likes the long routes however his speed numbers are a bit inconsistent. He could bring in a nice price.