Blazing Saddles Showdown: Dirt Mile
$250,000 is at stake and the rivalries are intense in the Blazing Saddles Breeders Showdown Dirt Mile, the 12th race in a big racing day Saturday in Arizona. The forecasters expect 80 degree weather and a fast track. The morning line sees a close competition among a group of three standouts, there is another group of 4 that seems able to match any of these efforts if things turn out right, and 2 longshots looking to make a name for themselves.
King’s Creek runs from the inside slot and has been ambitiously placed by trainer renegades, so much so that the track handicapper has set a 67/1 morning line here. The 4-year old son of Louis Quatorze only broke his maiden in July in a $15K Maiden Claimer, albeit at this distance; that is King’s Creek’s only win in 8 tries. The effort that likely led this one’s connections to seek take a shot at this event was a performance twice back 3 months ago that produced a 100 speed rating and a place finish in a $15K claimer. Last out six weeks back King’s Creek reverted back to his more usual speeds which are slower than the rest here. Looking for portents in King Creek’s favour: this one’s best effort came running from the front and the post position is right for that; rider S. Ortiz has had a good year winning 11% of his mounts; and lightly raced 4-year olds can make a bog jump in ability
Farseer runs as a 5/2 co-favourite from the 2 position for trainer devil01, part of the imposing Galileo Stables operation. The son of Sadler’s Wells does have the single most impressive performance at this distance, a 13/1 win in the Grade 1 Bad From the Bone in California over a year ago, which produced an impressive 118 Beyer, which beats the best of any other on here by 7 points. In the last year Farseer has scored only one win but has often been in the money, producing 3 consecutive place showings from June through September, at a 106 which could be fast enough to win this one. This one sometimes runs from the front but more often settles in a length or two behind the leader. It is a great advantage to have the track’s top rider, W. Kewmwa, handling this mount, as the tactical decision may be whether to try to outrace King’s Creek to the inside and the lead or to hand just behind the leader, timing a move in the knowledge that the two greatest threats here are on the two slots to the immediate inside.
Eurotrash also goes off at 5/2 in the 3 slot for trainer desimster5, part of the Shamrock Stables group. The son of Eurosilver in the Unbridled line is the leasing money winner in the field boasting $630,000 in earnings. Game dam Dear Storm was a graded dirt sprint stake winner brings Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector into the mix. Most of this one’s major efforts came as a 3- year-old on the grass; in June Eurotrash moved back to the dirt and has had 4 efforts at this distance since, 2 coming on the slop. The two dirt efforts were quite decent efforts at long odds in a G1 and a G3 stake, producing speeds of 111 and 110, second best lifetime in this field and the best recent efforts. Eurotrash runs best while stalking, sometimes hanging right behind the leader, sometimes starting from 5 or 6 lengths back at second call. Rider N. Trumbull has the 4th best winning percentage at the track this year and will concentrate on not being boxed in by frontrunners.
Aces Wired runs from the 4 slot and goes off at 7/2, third choice to the two to his inside. The 5- year-old son of Unbridled’s Song runs for the timjbehr barn. Aces Wired is not a mile specialist like many here; his two most recent wins have come at 8.5 and 10 furlongs and his best effort has also come a half-furlong longer, a 109 speed back in July. The two most recent efforts have produced slower efforts than usual, but one came in the slop and the last was a win at ten furlongs where this one scored a win without needing to make strenuous efforts late. Aces Wired is the horse in the field most likely to run as a closer and could be the only one to do that; lone closers often benefit when the other leaders are spending their energy and fighting for position early. Jockey Q. Rein has had a good year with a 12.3% winning percentage and will be urging Aces Wired on late.
Relaunch the Skunk is a 3-year-old challenging the big boys here from the 5 slot at 8/1 odds. The son of Eurosilver (x Relaunch x Never Bend) runs for skunkbarn. This one has shown that he likes his picture taken with 5 wins in 9 starts. The outings that show this one to be a threat here are the two last; an allowance win at this distance producing a 107 speed twice back and a very respectable show finish in his first try at the stake level also producing a 107 at 7.5 furlongs out in the far east last month. Trainer skunkbarn points out that this one has run well with 6 weeks west and told the Black Type Bugler that he expects a monster effort Saturday. In his early efforts this one ran from the front but has also, like the favoured horses here, run from just behind the leader. This is somewhat of a hunch: jockey R. Zombie, not having a good year, could do worse than bolting out to the lead in an attempt to go wire-to-wire.
Just a Good One runs in the 6 slot at 24/1 odds for trainer bluewonder, a young barn which has nevertheless got off to a 30$ start, winning 7 of 23 races. This one had 4 previous owners before being picked up by this barn. His career at 3 was undistinguished and this one’s new regimen has produced his best performances, including wins in the two last, a starter and a regular allowance. The 100 figure twice back is the only performance that hints at competitiveness here. The breeding (Kingmambo x Just a Cat x A. P. Indy) is imposing and it is not unknown for horses to take off late in their 4-year old season. Jockey A. Martin does not get as many mounts as the top guns here but has put up a nice 15.3% win percentage this year when given the mount; He is the only real deep closer here and will try to take advantage of being alone in his niche.
Boss Hog Lago runs at 9/1 from the 7 slot for billy2shoe. The son of Encosta Del Lago had a distinguished career at 2 and early in his 3-year old year, running in the Middle Jewel and Eddie Haskell. However his development stalled and his last win came 21 months ago. He has shown a liking for running in the money, doing so 8 times in the last 10 races, which have included experiments at sprinting, the turf, and classic distances in an attempt to get him kickstarted again. The 102 speed put up last out at this distance was his fastest in a year, and might not be far from sustaining an ITM finish here. Trainer billy2shoe points to Boss Hog Lago’s back class and hopes that this return to graded competition will inspire him to show his talent again. Rider J. Lussi is having a better than average year.
Emperor Squall runs from the 8 slot at 5/1 for the giant meguire operation. This one has been running fairly consistently at around the 100 speed level for a while but has not been able to hit the boards in his last 5 races; as a son of Empire Maker he might not have hit his peak yet. LOL. His non-MCOS wins have come while running close to the leader although he has not stayed close in his last 4 races. Rider N. Gardner is the #2 boy at his track and this one is lucky to have him; if Gardner tries to go back to the close stalk style that has worked for this one in the past, he will find that part of the track will be crowded with the co-favourite likely to be taking a similar approach.
Sedated Bird runs from the outside slot at 11/1 for the acote barn which is part of the Pilgrim Stables outfit. This 4-year-old is the people’s horse here, with a pedigree of Danbird x Czarevitch x Zeditave. This one debuted late in his 3-year-old year and has run only 5 times at 4, generally showing improvement culminating in a show finish with a 105 speed in an allowance in Denmark last month. Sedated Bird has hit the board in 6 of his seven races lifetime. His two wins have come running from the front going wire-to-wire; when running in a stalk style he has lacked oomph in the late going. It is possible that no one else will be grabbing the front running role; jockey B. Watson, like some others is outperforming his career stats this year, winning at a 13.5% percentage.
Toral’s Picks:
1. Relaunch the Skunk
2. Aces Wired
3. Boss Hog Lago