Fillies Fly in Air Line

Air Line Handicap

Grade III

One mile

Fast Dirt

$150,000

Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up

With a few speed types and a slew of pace trackers, I’ll go with outside closer GOLD FOR THE GRAVE(KY) to punch her ticket in the Air Line.

PP  Horse ID  Horse  Owner  Jockey  Odds  W / P / S

1 107631 A FIRE INSIDE  kjracing  G Rolling  7/2    

5-year-old has rock-solid breeding (A.P. Indy to a Mr. P stakeswinning mare).  Her success this year was largely limited to the allowance ranks this year until popping a 115 in the Wooden State last month in Wisconsin.  She is plenty fast overall though, and usually keeps in good contact with the leaders.  She’s a mile specialist, which some others in here are not.  Still, it could require pairing up a big number to win this, and she has not done so in the past.  Rolling will have to keep her rolling.

2 107961 EL GRAN GOLD CON  turfwinner  R Haffner  9/2    

From Congaree’s impressive rookie year as sire, this is another mare coming off an impressive-looking stakes score.  While that Iowa stakes was on the slop, she has plenty of big races in her history on fast ground, so the dry footing should not be a concern.  She has the same running style as the horse to her inside, which might be worse news for her.  Even so, this nine-time winner could be ready for her first graded score.

3 108857 DOCTOR DANZIG  manon  P Davis  3/1    

It is hard to get more consistently good than DOCTOR DANZIG.  Since February, she has posted a speed between 105 and 110 in every race with two exceptions – and those were a 102 and a 115.  She parlayed that into victories in the Grade 1 Dancer Cap and the Grade 3 Girls Just Right.  Last out, she nearly took down the Breeders Bowl Mare Sprint, but was outmotored in the stretch by winner CLARK COUNTY(KY).  She is the third in a row here who has really turned it on in her 5-year-old season, and she is now the 3rd ranked female sprinter.  It does not appear that going a mile will cause her connections concern, since many of those top recent races were at 7 or 7.5 furlongs.  A worthy favorite, but P Davis might have to come up with a game plan to avoid traffic.

4 140552 SARACEN(KY)  dixiedotco  N Painter  13/1    

One of our sophomores, she burned out early in the Mare Sprint mentioned above and finished up the track.  She’s been doing that with regularity since a streak of facile frontrunning wins ended this summer.  She’s still a young gal, and as a STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER there is every possibility of further improvement in the tank.  She just might have to be five lengths in front at the third call to have a chance of winning.

5 117641 AS IS(KY)  bigiron  W Jenkins  6/1    

Trainer bigiron changed tactics in the Excessive Class last month and sent AS IS(KY) from the gate.  It worked, as she posted a 106 speed and her first win since March.  She  rates an upset chance at moderate odds if she can do it again, but it will be a risky bet.  This might also not be a good field to try the wire-to-wire strategy on again.

6 41177 BOMBALURINA(IRE)  sirivor  L Gunn  8/1    

She was the first foal out of her stakeswinning mare GRIZABELLA, and so far the best.  What’s weird is that her last race was the first time she finished out of the trifecta since her last-place debut run.  She’s been off since that Grade 3 in September, but she is lightly raced overall this year – only 6 starts.  This is usually her distance and she’s probably good enough, but others are sharper than the 103 she posted last out.  Interesting in the trifecta spot based on her record.

7 108317 DEAD LOIS  smoken  S Buda  14/1    

Lois is alive but not a stakeswinner like many in here.  The second of our two Victory Gallops (also AS IS(KY)), she comes off a decent 5th in the longer King Classic in Germany, where she may just have run by lesser horses.  A few 101s are her top speeds in the PPs, and it is hard to construct a scenario where that would win this contest.  One scenario is that she hangs well back as she did last race, then picks up the pieces from those with wide trips around the oval.  But I might ask for more than 14/1 if I were counting on that angle.

8 125688 RED HOT AND ROCKIN(KY)  hilary7170  B Child  7/1    

Claimed a year ago for $25k, she has certainly been worth it for hilary7170.  The Unbridled’s Song 4-year-old scored her Grade 1 in South Korea’s Gracie Law Distaff, which is an impressive rise from non-winning dam KNAPP TIME.  Based on her record, she may need to stay close to the leaders to win, even though she has finished in the money when serving as a closer.  The last two were not that impressive, although one was a last place in the Breeders Bowl Distaff, so that might be excused.  She might also be tired after a busy 17-race season, and as a bettor you might want to sit this one out.

9 141071 GOLD FOR THE GRAVE(KY)  cougar  N Lawton  6/1   

Our other sophomore is the only truly top-notch product of the A-rated mare GHOUL’S GOLD.  She was second in the Breeders Bowl Distaff that RED HOT AND ROCKIN(KY) struggled with, and that followed grade 1 victories in two 3-year-old-only contests.  Her trainer understandably thought turf with the Dynaformer lass, but she has really turned it on since switching to the sand.  Her deep, deep closing style is well-suited to this bunch, and she is my pick to win at 6/1.