G2 EARLY MONTH STAKES SHOULD BE DANDY

New South Wales-It should be a beautiful day Down Under when thirteen three year old colts meet to race in the $350,000, Grade II, Early Month Stakes.  Coolerk’s New Storm is the 4-1 early morning favorite of this ten furlong turf affair, but I have a feeling that an upset is going to happen.  As always, for your pari-mutuel enjoyment, Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang will break down each horse and attempt to find a nugget of gold amongst the silt.

PP1, Noia’s Red Loop(21-1, Phillips).  “We are starting to run out of big three year old only stakes.  Many of the leading colts are skipping these kinds of races to see how they will fair against their elder brethren.  This race features two top twenty colts and the rest are looking to establish their credentials.  Most of these colts do not have much experience at today’s distance so much of our analysis is guesswork.  In my initial examination of the past performances I was surprised by the lack of early speed in this race.  That void could encourage some strange racing results.

Now Red Loop is an interesting colt.  A son of Red Ransom, he’s cutting back in distance after racing competitively at the eleven and twelve furlong distances.  He has a pair of stakes wins, including a 96 speed rating when he won the 9.5 furlong Pine Ransom Stakes over this course.  In general, Red Loop’s best times are not competitive with the best in the field, but ten furlongs could be this stalker’s best distance and we could see a huge speed rating increase.  He’s raced well at 9.5 furlongs, and he’s never raced at ten furlongs before, but his pedigree suggests that he might enjoy that distance.  Even though he is being ridden by a 5% jockey, I’m going to include him in my exotics by using him underneath.”

PP2, Dinomite’s Go For Bull(12-1, Disher).  “Go For Bull is six of eighteen in his career, but the son of Holy Bull has been struggling as of late.  In week 2461 he won a 9.5 furlong stake with a 99 speed rating.  Since that race, he really hasn’t raced back to that level.  Perhaps 9.5 is his optimum distance.  He’s a very nice colt at that particular distance.  He’s raced ten furlongs in two of his last three races and really hasn’t fired.  His first ten furlong race was over a good track that saw him finish second versus a field of five.  In that race he missed by a head and had a 95 speed rating.  His last try at ten furlongs came in the G1 Big Red stakes and in that race he finished 10^th with a speed rating of 90.  I think 100+ speed rating wins this race and Go For Bull hasn’t yet demonstrated that he can put up that kind of number at the distance.”

PP3, Highfive’s Colorado Force(13-1, Kirkland).  “This son of Royal Academy is five for eleven in his career and has earned over $232,000.  In his last start he won the Grade II Choo Choo at twelve furlongs with a 100 speed rating.  In the race prior to that race he won a nine furlong stake with a 100 speed rating.  I think we could see a big speed number out of this stalker who shoots for fourth consecutive win.  I’m using him as my Tsing Tao longshot and I’m betting him on top and underneath in my exotics wager.”

PP4, Sherwood’s Redsadky(8-1, Bangs).  “I believe that this is the colt to beat.  Redsadky has won four of his first five races and is already rated 19^th in the Division.  He tasted defeat in his last race, the ten furlong, G1 Big Red Stakes when he finished a game second with a 105 speed rating.  This son of Red Ransom is just learning the game and should improve even more in this race.  Even though he has never grabbed an early lead, you might see him do so in this race and try to win from gate to wire fashion.  Best lifetime speed rating is a 109 which is the second best in the field.  I’m using him on top in my wagers.”

PP5, Fab19’s Sky Turn To Black(7-1, Ridenour).  “Stalking Son of Sky Mesa boasts a 106 speed rating back in week 2440 when he won a 9.5 furlong stake in South Dakota.  Has two wins since that big effort, but his speed ratings have remained constant at around 100.  Never raced ten furlongs before so new distance could spark a new top speed rating.  More distance could be just what he’s looking for.  I’ll include underneath in my exotics.”

PP6, Bagpuss’ American Quest(5-1, Walker).  “Son of Coronado’s Quest is a consistent performer.  When racing nine furlongs his speed rating is always between 100 and 107.  He has never attempted ten furlongs, but his breeding suggests he could really enjoy the distance.  Lifetime this stalker is five of twelve and has earned over $180,000.  This race is his graded debut.  A horse to include if you can afford to do so.”

PP7, Dowelly’s Classic Dowelly(14-1, Fontain).  “Classic Dowelly is the son of sim great Amanda Jane.  8^th ranked Classic Dowelly had a bang up two year old season, but has struggled as a three year old, only winning one time as a sophomore.  New longer distance may spark a revival of good fortune.  Top jockey aboard.”

PP8, Bobo’s Keplar Of Rock(Ire)(8-1, Baxter).  “The hottest colt in the field is looking for his sixth consecutive score.  During this streak he did have a ten furlong win in an allowance race, however his speed rating in that race was only a 93.  He won that race by over 7 lengths so I believe he is capable of putting up a 100+ speed rating at this distance.  This stake winner does have some graded experience as in week 2468 he ran in the 12 furlong G1 Sydney Derby and was fifth.  Overall he is ten of sixteen and has earned over $289,000.  Use him under, though a win by him would not shock me.”

PP9, Husky’s Savage Frontier(10-1, Clark).  “Son of Esperero won his last start, a twelve furlong Grade III.  Prior to that win, Husky had Savage Frontier make five consecutive dirt wins that saw one third place finish.  Last start’s win marked the first time that Savage Frontier had won when routing.  A very nice bargain bred that shows some nice versatility both to distance and surface (as he did have a 102 on the dirt).  I do not know if he can win this race, but based on his last race, I think long distance races, on either surface, will be exciting prospects for his connections.  Use him under.”

PP10, Sksutton’s Wells Of Endurance(20-1, Perkins).  “Son of Sadler’s Wells might be the early speed and lone speed.  Cuts back in distance and does have a win at the distance.  Might be able to control the pace and steal the race.  We have seen stranger things happen.”

PP11, Laq’s Cycle Like Bayley(14-1, Butcha).  “Son of Broad Brush makes his second turf try.  He was unplaced in his prior attempt.  Cycle does have some success on the dirt with a pair of 11 furlong stake triumphs.  Tough spot to break your turf maiden.”

PP12, Lenny271’s Beyer Beware(8-1, Beckistan).  “Deep closing son of Dayjur has raced pretty well in his last three starts.  In his last race he won a nine furlong stake with a 105 speed rating.  In the race prior to that race he was a game third in the DelPenn Gr Simsters Smack Down.  Never tried the distance, but I can’t see were he wouldn’t be successful racing at it.  Use under.”

PP13, Coolerk’s New Storm(4-1, Berger).  “The favorite is a son of Storm Cat out of a Nureyev mare.  In his last race he was 5^th in the Big Red with a 100 speed rating.  I’d like his chances much better if conditions were off.  In his life, he’s won four races and three of those wins came when he raced over ‘off’ tracks.  A monster when it’s wet he is much more ordinary on firm turf.  Wait for that good deluge and bet him with both hands!”

Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.