Suicidal Tendency and Idolatria Head Newmarket Betting
Race 15 on this week’s
Let’s first revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of this event:
2000 – More Dare (Blind Spot / Big Burn) – Kicksave – 1.10.2 – 101 – $292k – Retired ‘open to all’ mare never used at stud.
2001 – Arc Elocat (Wavering Monarch / Blushing Groom) – Dancer – 1.10.2 – 99 – Retired winner of $588k – Dam of five, including:
……Admiration (Sadler’s Wells) – SW x 9 – 16/73 – $817k. – Dam of two
……Tacos And Burritos (Dream Well) –SP – 5/39 – $39k – Active
2002 –
2003 – Polish Legend (Polish Love / Vicksburg) – Seppy – 1.09.2 – 114 – Retired winner of $438k. Dam of one. No black type
2004 – Gaudenzia (Rahy / Cozzene) – 2totango – 1.08.8 – 118 – Retired winner of $1.4m. Dam of two. No black type
2005 –
2006 – Candy Cane (Distant View / Lear Fan) – Wally123 – 1.09.8 – 98 – Retired winner of $942k. Dam of one.
2007 – Barb Dylan (Falbrav / Sadler’s Wells)– Jakematt3 – 1.09.0 – 110 – Active Winner of 10/20 – $431k.
Using history as a guide, we’ll take a look at what we’d expect from the race, and use these findings in our assumptions throughout the preview. Firstly, what sort of time will be looking at? The first two runnings were won in a tick over 1.10, but since then, every winner has broken that 1.10 mark. Although speed ratings have varied widely (99 – 118), it’s fair to expect a triple digit speed rating will be needed this year. The slowest winning speed, 1.10.2 was recorded in both 2000 and 2001. The race record, 1.08.8, belongs to Gaudenzia, who saluted in 2004.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
The inside gate is the starting position for
Drawn 2 we have Toga Point, a five year old mare currently racing in the best form of her career. Only twice in her life has she put two winning efforts together. Firstly a pair of allowances in mid 2007, then her two most recent outings, when both wins have both come at stakes level. She has a couple of questions to answer. Her most recent run saw her post a very impressive 107. That should be a positive, but the triple digit runs she’s returned earlier have all been followed by a lesser effort. And this is the first time, at her thirty third run, that she’s attempted to tackle Graded opposition. There is no question about her ability to go fast enough, but can she do so against a number of opponents who have the score on the board? The close-in barrier is sure to be an advantage. She won’t get caught up in the early scramble, but will be near enough to the rail to ensure a good position in running. Toga Point is a scratchbred daughter of Point Given / Summer Squall / Dr. Fager. Trainer Newmarket1 has clearly seen enough improvement in her last couple of starts to justify the promotion. In a field with a lot of chances, she cannot be dismissed, but I feel she deserves to be at a bit more tempting quote, given her complete absence of prior racing at this level.
Gate 3 is the starting position for Nothin’ To Lose, a four year old, million dollar earner, looking to regain the form which took her to Grade 1 winning glory just over a year ago. It’s hard to believe that the winner of the G1-Sun State Cup last September would now be struggling to hit the board at allowance level, but such is the case with this filly. There can be no doubting that, at her best, she’d be a real threat. But that best is currently a memory. Since winning her initial, ungraded outing to begin this year, she’s missed the board in her last eight, reducing her superb strike rate from eleven of nineteen to a far less imposing eleven of twenty seven. Nothin’ To Lose is a four year old scratchbred daughter of Lemon Drop Kid / Dynaformer / Storm Bird. Owner / Trainer Zewango3 has really tasted the ups and downs of racing with this one. At her peak she’d walk all over most of this week’s opposition. She’s not at her peak. Training conglomerate, Black Label Stables, has wisely chosen to run multiple entries here. While a surprise return to form is not impossible, the insurance of entering another runner is probably a very sound strategy.
Seven Bridges, drawn 4, was a tad disappointing last time out, but prior to that her six furlong turf firm was most impressive. In four earlier tries over the conditions she faces this week, she’d won three and finished second in the other. Lightly raced, with just the eleven starts, she’s meeting plenty of seasoned competitors here and that’s reflected in the generous odds on offer. She’s one of those “Yes she can, no she can’t” types. “A repeat of the 108 she registered three starts back gives her a great chance.” “But that was ten points above her second best, so perhaps it was a fluke.” “She’s placed in a Grade 3 earlier in her career.” “But that was against her own age group and she’s taking on the older mares here.” “She’s beaten the older mares.” “But that was an ungraded race.” And so it goes on. Seven Bridges is a daughter of Storm Cat from Dream Evil (Forty Niner / Blushing Groom), a stakes placed winner of six from twenty five. Dam of only two foals to date, both have registered black type, with younger brother Dirty Black Halo (Silver Deputy) already stakes placed. She’s one of several who will be contesting the early lead, and with little early speed drawn inside her, she got the best gate of those speedsters. Having her ‘stablemate’ drawn immediately inside will also do no harm, although the stewards are sure to be on the lookout for team tactics. If the early breaks go her way, she may prove to be excellent value at the price on offer.
Suicidal Tendencies, drawn 5, lines up once again with her frustrated connections hoping for an overdue change of luck. Looking at the formlines of those ranked higher in qualification order, her two ungraded victories from twenty starts would appear to be shy of the type of class we’re looking for this week. But that bland statistic just tells part of the story. In twenty starts, she’s gone home without a cheque just once, and that was more than a year and a half ago. She’s won just five of those twenty, but has finished second an amazing ten times. Her two previous attempts at Graded racing have both landed podium finishes, including her latest run in a Grade 2. Suicidal Tendencies is a four year old daughter of Awesome Again, based on Suicide King Too (Deputy Minister / Alydar), a Grade 2 winner. There is no doubt that, on her day, she has everything she needs to be a threat in this. She can run fast enough, she can mix it with the class and she’s not likely to lead in this likely speed fest, which should be an advantage. If Owner / breeder 7cardstud put a place ticket on her every time she runs around, it would ensure a handy income. The bookmakers are well aware of her capabilities, and as such have seen fit to install her as equal favourite in the early markets. She’s a strong winning chance if she can dig deep enough to find a cure for her seconditis.
From stall 6 will jump Inflection, an accomplished sprinting mare coming off an uncharacteristic sub-par effort. Her bad runs tend to create an interest of their own. There have been only half a dozen or so spread across thirty five starts, and when she doesn’t make the podium, she puts in a shocker. One of those rare shockers was in this same race last year, and that was also the only time she’s put two bad runs together. That will be enough of any excuse for those looking to undermine her chances, but we’ll concentrate on the positives. She’s a Grade 2 winner just four starts back, and was beaten less than two lengths when third in the G1-The
Gate 7 is the starting position for She’s All Mystery, a four year old filly who has returned to the grass and who looks more than happy to have done so. A fair allowance runner on the dirt, her last three runs have seen her victorious in two allowances, before running third under these exact conditions last start. She’s yet to win any level of black type race, which should create concern in a field with plenty of black type included, but that last start third, along with three consecutive triple digits, underline her worthiness for this event. A daughter of Doneraile Court, she’s out of the Graded placed mare Bone Of Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus / Seattle Slew), also dam of stakeswinner Giant Strides (Giant’s Causeway), who in turn has produced another generation of black type runners with Sherbet’s Reign (Dylan Thomas). Back to She’s All Mystery. Although she’s had twenty two previous runs, she looks to be just now reaching her peak. She’ll look to settle a couple of lengths of the pace, with the leaders sure to set a scorching pace, possibly setting the scene perfectly for this Quiggy bred and trained runner. She’s one of a number of genuine chances in a quality field.
Drawn in gate 8 we find Night Witch. She’s prepared for this race with two ungraded stakes wins from her last three outings, and as a recent placegetter in a Grade 2 competition, she ticks the ‘class’ box. If she does have a concern, it may be that the trip is not quite far enough. She runs on nicely late in her races, but opponents will be aware that of her seven wins, the shortest winning trip has been six and a half furlongs, while her two most recent have been a furlong longer than that. Having said that, we need look back just six runs to her career highlight thus far, at least in terms of Graded racing. Back in March she ran second in a Grade 2, and that was over this six furlong trip. With plenty of horses sure to be keen to take up the early running, the tactics could just make the race for a strong closer, so there’s another positive. Night Witch is a half sister to the sim’s only Triple Crown winner, I
Awaiting the starter in stall 9 we see Champion Flower, a three year old filly who has done most of her earlier racing on the dirt. She’s taken to the grass twice previously, in juvenile contests at both Graded and ungraded levels. In both races she finished second, proving that the class of opposition should not prove too intimidating. Her last three efforts have produced the worst sustained patch in her sixteen start career, no doubt inspiring the change of surface. We know she can run the triple digits which are almost certain to be required here. We know that, although never a winner on the grass, she can handle the rarely visited surface. What we don’t know, however, is whether the current form slump is about to be reversed. Champion Flower is a daughter of Flower Alley, from Champion Bubba (Tough Knight / Bold Ruckus). She’s the third, and most successful issue of her dam, who was stakes placed on five occasions. Her preferred running style, close to the lead, but not too close, may prove an advantage as the leaders cut away at each other, giving her protection along with a good run. With a pair of seconds in Grade 2 races this year, she deserves to add a Graded win to her impressive black type scorecard. Meguire2nd will be trusting to a change in surface to reignite the spark.
Barrier 10 is the starting gate for Pyarmidiono. This four year old filly had me heading straight to google after I’d sorted out her spelling, and guess what? All the references there led me straight back to the BTB, so I haven’t enhanced my knowledge by leaning some strange new foreign word. Perhaps the breeder could patent it and make a fortune! Back to the race in question. Based on minimum requirements, as discussed in the introduction, this four year old filly is a chance if she can replicate her most recent run. It’s the ‘if’ that creates the question. It was by far the best run of her fifteen start career which, before then, had landed just two speed ratings in the low 90’s. There’s a school of thought that believes that many horses take fifteen or so runs to reach maturity, and if she fits into that category, she may well find that the allowance win was just the beginning of a good streak. Pyarmidiono is a four year old daughter of Gold Tribute, based on Pyramidio (Pyramid Peak / Yukon), a winner of four low level races from forty two. We’ve mentioned, again in the introduction, that this race is often taken out by runners of unfashionable bloodlines (and I have a very handy
Get Your Scurry On lines up in barrier 11, as she looks to open her Graded winning account at what is possibly her favourite trip. She’s had just the two earlier runs over the six furlongs, and took home the winner’s share on both occasions. Two starts back she scored her second black type victory when she had nearly two lengths to spare in an ungraded stakes. At her only attempt against Graded company, she did all the pacesetting work, before finishing fourth. That was over an extra furlong, so she’s sure to appreciate the drop back in distance. She’s drawn wider than connections would hope for and her chances should be summed up very quickly after barrier rise. In all five of her wins, she’s led the field from the outset, and she’ll have plenty of competition for the lead in this. Get Your Scurry On is a three year old daughter of Monsun, from Get You Scurry On (Zabeel / Green Desert), herself a stakeswinner. Of some concern is the lack of a triple digit figure on the formpage, but she does appear to be one of those fillies who likes to go only as fast as she must. She’s never gone home without a cheque in her dozen starts, and if she’s left alone in front, she may well be able to advance that one step further than her dam, and at very nice odds.
General Skydancer alights from 12 and really does look to have been set a monumental task. On what she’s done thus far, she really is an allowance runner, tilting at windmills in a field with more than its share of proven Graded contestants. She’s one of only two who is yet to register a triple digit speed rating in her lifetime, and this race will need not only triple digits, but a healthy three figures. The best bit of form is perhaps that she won her maiden over this distance, but she did so in a time which would see her beaten a dozen lengths in this. General Skydancer is a four year old scratchbred daughter of Sky Mesa / Dance Brightly / General Assembly. Ecosse has brought her along nicely at a lower level thus far. A bit more time working through the allowances and ungraded stakes classes could only be to her advantage. The bookmakers give her virtually no hope of attaining the increment needed to feature this week, and I’m afraid I must concur.
From the outside stall jumps Idolatria, a filly racing in great heart, and who comes into this off a pair of placings in Grade 1 contests. If current form is the main ingredient, this runner has it in spades. Her last five races have all been in Graded contests. She’s won two of them and finished on the podium in the other three. It’s hard to find anything to fault. She’s run triple digit speed figures in ten of her last dozen, and in the other two she finished second in slowly run races. There’s virtually no way this one will be slowly run, so we can almost pencil in another three figure effort. If she has any concern it may be the early tactical battle. There are at least four runners, including herself, who will want the lead. If they cut away at each other they may set the race up for those ridden more quietly, and being drawn widest of them all is no advantage. Idolatria is a four year old scratchbred daughter of Buddha / Arazi / Topsider. She’s proven herself most capable at this level of racing and higher, which gives her an advantage over some of her opponents who, although looking capable, have yet to put the score on the board. She won her last two starts at this, the Grade 3 level, and her more recent runs have all been at a higher Grade, where she’s acquitted herself admirably. The more you study her form, the better she looks. Victoryrun has every reason to saddle her up with confidence.
Summary and Selections:
Thirteen runners and all bar a couple of them can produce the speed likely to be needed here, so it will surely come down to class and tactics. Idolatria (4/1) is racing in career best form.
Suicidal Tendency for second. Nothing is better at running second.
Pyarmidiono for third. Let’s throw some value into the exotics.
The Market:
4/1 – Suicidal Tendency, Idolatria
5/1 – Night Witch
7/1 – Toga Point, Inflection
8/1 – She’s All Mystery
9/1 –
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Idolatria – 7
Inflection – 12
Night Witch – 17
Suicidal Tendency – 31
Toga Point – 48
Seven Bridges – 45 – 3yo rating