Harry Carey Memorial Stakes

Harry Carey Memorial Stakes
Grade III
One mile
Firm Turf
$150,000
horses, 3 years old and up

As would be expected this week this is an open race. Most of the horses are a good quality but just below top class. This should be a competitive race and very hard to predict the winner.

LEAGUE OF NATIONS (ENG) RAINBOW QUEST x GONE WEST x SADLER’S WELLS

This is a horse who has got better with age. He does not stay anywhere near as well as he should do though. He has won 3 of his last 5 races posting triple digit speed figures in the last 3. He was beaten on his only try in graded company in his last start. He gives the impression that 8.5f is his best trip so far. It is hard to see him on current evidence hitting the first 3 here but may well still be improving for the future.

EYES OF FIRE (KY) KING CUGAT x IRISH RIVER (FR) x COZZENE

This horses last 4 wins have been over 9f. I think it tells us a lot he will lack the pace for a mile. He has been running well in stakes races recently hitting the board and even winning one last time out. It is a massive difference though between ungraded and grade races. He is also not at his best trip and has to be considered a long shot to make the frame.

SHOULDN’T MATTER (IRE) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x AFFIRMED

This is a hard horse to weigh up. He runs well most of the time but does not seem to have a trip so to speak. He has been graded places many times at or around a mile but always finds one to good. His recent graded form has seen him struggling a little suggesting he is not the force he once was. On the evidence of his form it is hard to make a case for him winning.

THE FAST LAYNE (KY) RAHY x SADLER’S WELLS x GONE WEST

This horse has been a great servant to his owner. He is a multiple graded winner even at this trip. He won the St James Palace as a 3yo at Royal Ascot. As with many horses who show outstanding ability in the first half of their 3yo season he ahs somewhat taken a backward step to be more precise not improved as much as others. He has been winning lately posting a nice 114 in an ungraded stakes race his 3 starts in graded stakes since have been losses. He has place chances but winning would be a surprise to me at least.

KING OF CLOUT (KY) KINGMAMBO x DIXIELAND BAND x SEATTLE SLEW

This horse was purchased at the auction for $2m. He has since then won a stakes race so must be a pleasing purchase for current connections. His speed figures have been good as well. It would appear 8 -8.5f is his best trip as well. The big question is does he have the class fro graded races. His stakes win was a 4 runner race so may well be a soft win. If I was betting real money I would pass him over for selection. The odds looked stacked against him here.

RUSSELL BAZE (KY) KING CUGAT x THEATRICAL (IRE) x KINGMAMBO

This horse has an apt name. He looks good as a big fish in a small pond put him in a big pond and he get’s out classed. This horse posts nice speed figure when beating up inferior animals. The problem is he appears to have a glass jaw and when the big hitters come to town get’s beaten up. It is hard to make a case out for him at this level although he is a really good horse in ungraded stakes.

BOOM GATE (ENG) RAINBOW QUEST x THEATRICAL (IRE) x DANEHILL

This is the outsider of the field. He has though won a graded race this year. He also has been running at the top level most of the time. These runs have been over 8f. He is a good horse but I am not sure 8f is his trip. Breeding would suggest he want further but my gut instinct is a return to sprinting may well prove to be fruitful. His chances in this race are reflected in his price.

BUSY QUICK (KY) DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT x AFFIRMED
This horse can post some very good speed figures. These include 113sp winning a stakes race I his last start. The problem they have is when running in graded races. A third place finish in his three prior runs is the best he has to show. The race in question again showed his ability to run fast times. The fact he can post big speed figures is in his favour and he could get placed. I find it hard to believe he will not find one to good in this field.

ANIO NOVUS (GB) BEAT HOLLOW (GB) x NUREYEV x DYNAFORMER

This horse has never looked back since winning a 35K claim. He was not claimed in that race. He has been running very well this year posting good speed figure even coming 2nd in a grade 1 over this trip. His last start was a disaster he bounced big time. The question is will he bounce back as some do or is it the prelude for an injury. Hopefully the later is not the case. If he bounces back to form has the class and ability to at least make the first three.

RAGSPOINT DEPUTY (KY) DYNAFORMER x DEPUTY MINISTER x STORM BIRD

This horse has been improving all the time. He is an 8-85f horse plan and simple. He was a good second in a graded race last time. His speed figures over this trip are good and reliable. There is little or no reason to believe he cannot repeat that form or even improve on it. He has very real prospects of at least making the frame in this race. A good horse well managed.

STARTLING (KY) UNBRIDLED’S SONG x SEATTLE SLEW x THEATRICAL (IRE)

This horse has won his last 3 races. He has posted good speed figures in them. He has never raced at graded level before. In fact his last win was his first stakes win. If I was betting on this race I would be laying this horse rather than backing him. He has ability but is unproven at graded level and you get the feeling one or three of these may well be to tough for him in this class of race. He is though worth a shot in graded company.

HITSUGAYA (KY) WAR FRONT x SEATTLE SLEW x MEDIEVAL MAN

This is a good 3yo. He was beaten last time out in a 3yo only graded race over 7f. He was placed in a class trial in the spring but then had a long time off. I am not sure that he has answered all the questions on what is his best trip and has never gone beyond 8.5f. On the level of his form it is hard to see him being a factor in this race.

WORDS AND MUSIC (KY) BORREGO x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR

This is a decent horse. He has been 2nd in an ungraded race over 11f. His best trip looks like 9.5 – 10f. His chances in this race appear somewhat less than Guy Ritchie and Madonna in this years Christmas addition of celebrity Mr. & Mrs. If raced over 9.5f in an ungraded stakes race can win and be fun for connections.

CARBON EXTRACTOR (KY) ELUSIVE QUALITY x SPINNING WORLD x SUMMER SQUALL

This horses last 2 runs have been a revelation. His form and speed figures have shot through the roof. He even won a grade 2 in a sizzling time on his last start. Analysis of that race showed only one previous graded winner so the competition was not as deep as this race. The race was only 3 weeks ago which means he is being asked to bounce back quickly. With the better field and the quick turn around there have to be doubts about him repeating the dose in this race.

As for my predictions I go for the following horses:-

RAGSPOINT DEPUTY hopefully will continue to improve and win his first graded race.
ANIO NOVUS should look to bounce back to form and chase home the winner.
THE FAST LAYNE his back class may drag him into a place.

Good luck to all.