Rainclouds cast shadow on the Windy City Gold Cup
The G2 Windy City Gold Cup has drawn a mixed field of classic runners. Scheduled as it is thee weeks before the Breeders Bowl, sometimes it is used as a combination prep and last-ditch effort to accumulate points for the big day. And for many horses it is simply a highlight of the fall campaign, a great race in its own right. This year the $300k race has drawn a full field. Odds-wise it is a highly competitive and well-matched group, with no horses under 7-1 or over 19-1. This tenth edition of the race is the first time the track has come up off. The 2007 winner Twist of Lemon holds the stakes record; he won in 2:00.2 to post a 113SP.
The rail post was drawn by Turk’s Ghost, trained by Knightmare. At 9-1, the 4yo Ghostzapper colt is getting some decent play at the windows despite a not-very-good sixth place in his only graded attempt to date. What makes this horse stand out, however, are two items. First, he is making the classic turf-to-dirt move, which can propel a horse to great efforts. second, in three tries at 10f he’s won once and placed second thrice. A solid record from an colt improving SPs as he matures. Lots to like here. The two seconds in off dirt races are strong indicators of a well-placed horse as well.
One of the three cofaves, the not-very-fiercely-named Barb’s Hot Cocoa enters off a decent fourth in the G2 Insulin, which was his graded debut. Bbudgies’ 4yo Manndar colt has yet to run 10f, but a strong stakes win at 9.5f in May suggests the distance should be acceptable. The water in the track is a concern. Cocoa has one race over a wet track, and while he did run second it was in a six horse field with a pedestrian 100SP.
Androcles, running for Rvd, is the old man of the field at 6 years. A son of Cozzene, Androcles won a G3 as a 4yo but has been mostly running in allowance and listed company since. He did score a 10f stake two back, and was a hard-closing fifth in a 10f G2 last out. On the wet stuff the horse has a win and two places from five attempts, hardly the stuff of muddy dreams but it does demonstrate he should not be ignored. 9-1.
The second 7-1 cofave, Awesome Force, has spent the last 3 races trying recover his awesome Sand Castle Classic form. The 2007 Eclipse winner really needs a win here to make his second Breeders Bowl appearance. While Camry tends to space out the Awesome Again colts races, his running back off two-weeks rest after a third in a listed purely to get those critical points. Bypassing the final preps of several of the top horses in the division doesn’t hurt either. Last time the Force did the 9f to 10f bump, he ran a great 113 in the Breeders Bowl Classic, but settled for fifth place. Will he run his big one here and have anything left in 3 weeks in California? A perfect 2-for-2 record on wet stuff will sure help his chances.
The field second-longshot, Thornbury Castle, drew post 5 and 17-1 odds. Deadinthelane’s 4yo Sadler’s Wells colt is making his graded stakes debut, but he has a solid record in allowance company and a healthy third in a 10f stake last out to support his entry. What i most like about this colt: in six races over 10 panels, he has never finished off the board. Ever. Of course, having superjock H Harzeim ride in five of those starts didn’t hurt, but the jockey can only do so much. Would like to see a stakes win on Castle’s record before throwing a lot of support his way, but don’t count him out. He’s improving at just the right time to make waves. Castle earned a third in his only offtrack appearance.
Willyam13’s Taharka has a 50% win rate at 10f, but the 4yo Medaglia D’Oro colt hasn’t hit the board at 10 in just under a year. Most recently he’s been loafing in the long division, winning and placing in the 11f-13f range. After a dropback to 10 in the CA Classic, the trainer decided the 108SP earned there was enough to take another shot at graded company at a distance that looks on paper too short for Taharka. The wet track will help – he has a nice 2:1-1-0 record.
Elusive Ridge makes his third go at graded company for trainer Ace. The 4yo son of Elusive Quality starts at 10-1 odds from the middle of the gate. He prefers to run off the lead, so a slow start in traffic will not be a problem. Those two prior graded attempts both results in ok but non-placed finishes. Will the third try be the lucky charm? The very nice second in Ireland-restricted company last out going 10 panels says maybe he’s ready to step it up finally. On an off-track, Elusive has a second in his only start, a 9f allowance. Not a lock by any means, but he bears close watching.
At 9-1, Bad Sin gets a bit more respect than his fellow Ace-trainee despite finishing third behind Elusive Ridge last out. The Sinndar 4yo posted a huge 109 in that race, which was his first and only 10f attempt on dirt. This is a big step up but if he can duplicate the effort watch out. The big unknown for Bad Sin is his ability to handle the surface; he has yet to try anything but a fast dirt track. On the other hand, he has shown moderate success on turf, so if that translates, Ace could find herself in a very good position at the wire with these two colts.
Brundlefly’s Samalaman Island starts at 10-1 odds from post 9. The 4yo son of Fantastic Light is twice graded-placed at 16f and a stakes winner at 12 and 13f, but has yet to go 10, so the dropdown should prove revealing for the trainer. The Island is a deep closer, sometimes coming from as far back at 18 lengths and still winning going away. Can he dawdle so much in a shorter race? We’ll see. The track condition is also a question. Island has never tried it, but he is placed several times on grass. Could get the job done.
The 11-1 Crumpler Square last visited the winner’s circle in March for trainer Jrogue after a romp in a 16f allowance. 10f is a bit iffy for the 5yo son of A.P. Indy, as he has won once and placed once but a pair of 10f attempts in G1 company this year have not ended so well for the horse. Crumpler is capable of beating this crew if he brings his best game, and he’s lightly raced enough to still have some energy left. The perfect 3-for-3 record on an offtrack (both turf and dirt) makes him a real threat.
Unreal’s Kitten No More is third-longest odds at 14-1. The son of Kitten’s Joy is the baby of the field at just 3 years of age. He won the Haskell 2 back in record-setting fashion, but appears to have sustained a minor injury in the Travelers in August. The return against older foes will not be easy, especially at this distance, but if he regains his Haskell form he will be a strong threat. Perfect record on wet track can only help his cause.
Jrogue’s second entry Buckminister holds the field distinction as longshot at 19-1. On paper the 5yo son of A.P Indy looks outclassed until you notice his record on a good track. Sure, the 2 wins from 7 tries in rain isn’t marvelous, but he won a 10f stakes on a good surface in May, and even on fast at 10 he isn’t bad. Sure, this entry is a stretch, but if he can find that May stakes form again, watch out. Big question here is class – he’s tried grades twice and failed both twice.
Vengence runs for Gatetowire at 10-1 odds from post 13. The 5yo son of Vindication is very lightly raced for his age with just 14 starts to his name. Six have resulted in wins, including a pair of stakes. The major recommendation for Vengence is his second in the G2 Iowa Cornhusker BB Classic in June; he was second on a good track at 9f. A lone 10f start in the G1 Farewell to CryptoZot wasn’t exactly a great race, but if he can translate that 9f form to 10 in the rain he stands a fighting chance.
Topicount’s Space Invader just posted a third in the G1 George W Loser Tribute in early September. The 5yo son of Java Gold needs to step it up in order to get his first G1 win, but as this will be just his third start at the graded level (his first was way back in 2006) the lower expectation may well be exceeded. A good 2:1-1-0 record on off tracks helps, but both of those starts were in mile allowances. The 11-1 odds signal Invader has some talent, but can he break through to the big time?
This is a difficult race to handicap. On class alone, Awesome Force is the winner, but he’s been a bit off form lately, leaving the door open for any of the other baker’s dozen. The good track condition throws a wrench in anyway, but just about every entrant has some sort of ability to handle the surface. I’m going to call an Androcles/Awesome Force/Kitten No More trifecta. The first horse looks ready to win big, Force is good enough to hit the board even on an off day, and the 3yo if he dredges up that Haskell form should be right up there.