Mario’s Logs Challenge draws graded quality field

Headlining the Virginia race card this week, we have the Mario’s Logs Challenge. The race extends a wide open invitation, for all horses three years old and older to run over ten furlongs of turf for a shot at the $60000 purse. The leaves are beginning to turn, but the weather has stayed perfect for racing, and the track will be rated as firm for the event. This is the fourth annual running of the race since moving to Virginia in 2005, and it has typically been an exciting one for race fans. The first two runnings were both decided by a scant half length at the wire, and last year Virginia race fans were treated to a track record breaking perfomance by winner St. Agur(IRE) who covered the distance in 2:00.8, posting a 110.5 speed rating in his length and a half win. This year we will see a field of eight take the gate, ranging from three to six years old, and from allownace workhorses to decorated graded winners. Four of the top 100 turf classic runners are here, including two of the top ten ranked horses in the world. Oddsmakers are playing it safe, with five entries squeezed in between 5/2 and 6/1 odds. Longer bets of 10/1, 12/1 and 15/1 odds round out the field.

PP 1) Shouldn’t Matter(IRE) Sired by North Light(IRE), Trained by seekgold. Shouldn’t Matter(IRE) is a four year old colt, making his twenty ninth start in this race. He has six stakes wins on his resume, including a Grade 3, and brings in a number 50 divisional ranking. His last ten starts, a combination of mostly Grade I and open stakes runs, have earned him a record of 3-2-0-1-1 with eight 100+ speed numbers, capped by a 110.5 in his last start. That race was the Grade I Canada Mile, where he was closing hard down the stretch, but had to settle for sixth in a very strong field. He has spent his entire career on the grass, and loves the surface. His payday race is in the eight to nine and a half furlong range, and in three starts in this distance range he has second, fourth, and fifth place finishes. He is a deeper closer, and with only a couple exceptions, his close has been quite consistent. His optimum striking distance looks to be under eight lengths out at the half, and if he gets out much deeper, he has problems bringing it all the way back. There’s going to be some good speed out in front of him in this one, and that could put him out deeper than he likes. The drop in class back to open stakes benefits him here, but with this field composition, the distance doesn’t. Look for him to be closing hard in the second half, but will likely fall short once again here.

PP 2) Town Prince(IRE) Sired by Ballingarry(IRE), Trained by quitter. Town Prince(IRE) is a five year old veteran of thirty three career starts. He brings a divisional ranking of 10 to the table behind eight stakes wins, five of those coming at Grade I or Grade 2 level. He drops back down to open stakes level here for the first time since mid April. His last ten starts have seen him run to a 3-5-0-0-0 record, showcasing eight 100+ speed numbers, with his best of 112.7 coming in his first race of the season. His last start was in the Grade I Windy City Turf Classic, where he couldn’t hold off the closers finishing a close in seventh in a tight race. He’s another pure turfer, having never been off the grass in his career, and this is his preferred distance range. In nineteen starts in this distance range, he has six wins and thirteen top three finishes. He likes a fast break and he generally likes to run with at least a piece of the early lead. He’s demonstated the ability to close short distances at need, which is a function of his stamina more than any kind of real power close. He comes into this one off of a couple very rough graded outings, looking to find back the form that saw him grab the Movieland and Kakarazuka Tinen ealrlier this season. He’ll have a battle on his hands early here, but that generally doesn’t bother him. He should be one of the front runners as they turn for home, and should see some of the smart money in the exotic boxes.

PP 3) Rumba Dance(IRE) Sired by Danehill Dancer(IRE), Trained by argo7591. Rumba Dance(IRE) is the young upstart of this field, a three year old colt making only his thirteenth career start here. While not as experienced as most of the horses in this field, he’s definitely no stranger to stakes competition, making eight of his twelve starts in stakes, with three stakes wins to his credit. His career record is 5-2-3-1-0, cracking the 100 speed barrier three times, capped by a 105.8 two starts back. His last start was a nine and a half furlong open stakes in Oklahoma, where he finished a hard closing third in a field of eight. He is another of the horses in this field that has never been off the turf. Distance wise, though, this will be his longest start to date by a half furlong, with his previous long coming in his last outing. He is a power closer, and with the exception of one bounce earlier this year, his close has been very solid. The distance here is going to be a big question mark, especially with the blazing early speed up front. Although he has a pair of wins at a mile last season, in three route starts this season, he has only a third and fourth place finish to show for it. On the postive side, he comes off the three best speeds in his career entering this one, and he looks to be blossoming. He’s likely to find himself in a much deeper hole than he is used to at the half here, though, and the big test is whether he is going to be able to dig himself out of it in the second half.

PP 4) Royal El Prado(KY) Sired by Royal Academy, Trained by colocouger. Royal El Prado(KY) is a four year old colt, seeing action in his thirtieth career start in this race. He steps up to stakes level for the third time this season, having seen mostly allowance action, and he is still seeking that elusive first stakes win. He’s put together a 1-2-0-3-0 record in his last ten starts, with a pair of 100+ speeds, his best of 107.2 coming in his last race. That race was a nine furlong open stakes in Tennessee, where he battled to a second place finish in a field of eight, falling late to a deeper closer. Twenty eight of twenty nine starts have been on turf, and he is more than comfortable with the surface. He’s anywhere from six and a half to ten furlongs but his best distance has been right in the mile range. He has a pair of races at this distance, and they have resulted in his lowest two speed figures of his career, as well as his worst career drubbings in distance out at the wire. He is a midpack closer, and his close has been up and down this season. He tends to break for the lead very early in the second half, and that has made him vunerable to the deeper closers. With the speed up front here, he is likely to find himself facing a good sized gap as they enter the second half here. The distance just seems to be a bit too much for him here, and unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, he shouldn’t be a major threat here late.

PP 5) Gotta Go Go Sired by Symboli Kris S, Trained by goonergeez. Gotta Go is a relatively lightly raced five year old, taking the gate for start number twenty. This will be only his second try in stakes competition, coming off some of his best career running, and he looks for his first stakes win here. He’s gone 4-1-1-0-2 in his last ten starts, posting five 100+ speeds, capped by a 111.3 ealier this season. His last start was a nine furlong open allowance right here in Virginia, where he went wire to wire on a field of eleven, winning by a length and a quarter. After starting his career on dirt, he found his way into claimers, and has stayed exclusively on turf for his new trainer and it has proven to be a sound decision. His best distance has been the nine to nine and a half furlong range. He has two starts at this distance, winning a pair on firm turf, while suffering in the other two on off tracks. Since his change of trainers, he has been a speedball, going to the straight to the front in every start. He has carried a lead into the stretch in five of his six starts this year, and has won three of those. If he does get out in front here, he’s going to have a couple of the top horses in the division sitting right off his tail. He’s been doing some of the best racing of his career in his last three, and has shown plenty enough speed to hold his own if he duplicates it. It doesn’t look like the stalkers are going to let him open too much of a cushion, and that could be a problem for him late. At 6/1 he may offer some good value in your trifecta boxes if he runs the way he has recently.

PP 6) Enchanting(KY) Sired by War Chant, Trained by deyoto2. Enchanting(KY) is a four year old colt, stepping to the track for start number twenty one here. He’s taken a few shots at stakes competition, but he has generally been an allowance runner, and he is seeking his first stakes victory. He brings a 3-0-1-2-1 record to the table in his last ten starts, with a top speed of 104.5 coming early last October. His last run was an A1s at nine furlongs in Ireland, where he bested a field of four by three lengths behind a very good stretch run. Other than a single token dirt start, all of his races have been on turf, where he has been a fairly solid performer. The nine to ten furlong range has been his best, and he has shown good speed out to twelve furlongs. Five starts at this distance have earned him a pair of wins and a show. He is a deep closer, and though he has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s found himself having trouble trying to make up some large chunks of ground in the second halves of most of his recent starts. It looks as if he is going to find himself right back in that predicament here, and he really hasn’t shown the kind of speed he’s going to need to track down the early speed in this one. He’s going to need a little luck and the race of a lifetime to be a serious factor here.

PP 7) Exclusive Habitat(ENG) Sired by Sakhee, Trained by iant8. Exclusive Habitat(ENG) takes the gate for start number twenty two here. He boasts a number 6 division ranking, with eleven victories in his first twenty one, including nine in stakes, five of those graded. Over the course of his last ten starts, he’s put together a 5-1-2-0-2 record, all of them showcasing speeds of 104 or better, culminating in a pair of 115.2 speeds. His last start was in the Windy City Turf Classic, where he recorded a fifth place finish in a very tight race. His career has been 100% turf, and he has proven himself a specialist at this distance. In eleven career outings at this distance, he has notched seven wins and ten top three finishes. He is a leader/stalker type of runner, showing both the ability open up a big cushion early, as well as survive an early dogfight if he needs to in order to get himself out in front. He has shown some ability to close small gaps from off the pace, but he usually hasn’t found it the be necessary. He’s got some good speed all around him here, but he has been at the top of his form. I have to agree with the oddsmakers here, that this race is his to win or lose.

PP 8) Dassault(KY) Sired by Ouragan, Trained by tenpin. Dassault(KY) is a four year old colt, and he will make his thirty first career start here. His number 66 divisional ranking includes four stakes wins, one at Grade 3 level. He brings an impressive 7-0-1-0-1 record with him out of his last ten starts, with nine 100+ speeds, his best of 112.8 coming late last season. He comes off a three and a quarter length victory in a twelve furlong stakes on a tough Vermont track. He started his career with four starts on dirt, racing well but just not quite well enough, and since he has switched to turf he has never looked back. He’s shown himself capable in any type of route, with victories coupled with excellent speeds out to twelve furlongs. In this distance range, he has four wins and a show in five career tries. He likes to run from mid pack, biding his time until the early speed burns out. His close has generally been very good, and he has shown both the speed and the stamina to be a late threat in nearly all his starts this season. Of the closers here, he is definitely the one with the best chance to track down the early speed in this one. Look for him to be clsoing hard in the second half and be right in the mix as they head for the wire.