Mospe Cup Grade 1

Track A2, Mospe Cup-G1, 3yo M 8F Turf Yielding Turf

Welcome to New South Wales which sure beats the hell out of the Old South Wales and Morocco for that matter. When your intrepid writer last spoke to you he was ducking out of Spain with the help of veteran sim trainer Given3. Thanks to the extra sheckles he gave me I escaped the clutches of an angry bookmaker and was able to make my way over here (wherever it is that I am now).  The question that looms in this race is will we see another PEINTRE INDYMAN. Back in 2004 this 3 year old blistered the track in a stunning 121. That’s right I said 121. I know there have been speed figure reforms since then but that is still, even when recalibrated, a stunning SPF. Even Pentire never came close to repeating the feat. The 7 year old brown colt is still running at but never came within 15 of that SPF again. This track has brought out some super speeds so I think we can expect this one to go real fast also. We have a full field of 14 so lets take a peak at this top flight field. The turf will be yielding so anything can happen.

THE FIELD

PP 1 PAGONDAS(KY) TR lsumark JKY D Perkins ML 13/1

This son of ARAGORN (IRE) x SUNDAY SILENCE x SOVIET STAR steps up to face graded opponents off a confidence boosting allowance followed by a clunker in a listed stakes. Ran 107 in the allowance so the stakes entry that followed made a lot of sense. But the 96 in the stakes race beaten 14 lengths would not lead most trainers to think tougher competition is what this colt wanted, yet that is just what he gets. Lets hope the last one was just a bounce and Pagondas finds the form he was showing prior. Has never tried the wet stuff.

PP 2 CURIOUS CANDY(KY) TR lopiccolo JKY M Hobbs ML 13/1

This CANDY RIDE (ARG) x KRIS S. x MR. PROSPECTOR’s 3 year old campaign until last race had been less than what might have been expected coming off a promising two year old campaign. He flashed some talent at a mile back in March but his G1 score at 6f last out may show that he is now finding his way back to his prior form. Not sure that 8f is his best distance but he will get to prove me wrong on Saturday. He has never tried the soft stuff and his stalking style may be a benefit here. 700k in lifetime earnings can’t be dismissed easily so I won’t.

PP 3 DANISHA(ENG) TR paceman2 JKY B Philp ML 22/1

This DANSILI (GB) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x KRIS S. did some nice running earlier this year, running third in a G3 but this field is full and far tougher. Has been searching for his sweet spot distance wise but if his 101 in a stakes win in February had convinced paceman2 that 8f was the right one then his subsequent race seemed to shake that notion. Has never tried yielding grass and his pedigree suggests it might be good for him. When at his best he will track the leaders from 4 or 5 back and launch a late move. Not sure that is how it happens on Saturday.

PP 4 LEXI’S SMILE(KY) TR claybornfa JKY D Boyington ML 10/1

Bred out of  INCLUDE x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x RED RANSOM and looks to like 8f. In fact end of June this one was tackling similar foes with great success. Since then he has two starts and neither lived up to his near miss in the G2. His speed figures say he fits but the soft turf is a question mark. Late closers often struggle on the yielding grass as it is hard to make up ground with sod getting kicked in your face. This one will need a career best and I am not sure these are the circumstances it will come under.

PP 5 RAGING MENACE(WA) TR teerades JKY K Williams ML 16/1

TRAIL CITY x DEPUTY WILD CAT x NUREYEV is not your typical G1 race pedigree and Raging Menace is another that will be exposed to wet grass for the first time. Has run his best at this distance but does not show a win on his dance card this year. The 104 last out is surely the impetus for this entry but I think it maybe too big a step up considering that the effort was only good for third in a listed stakes. I will have to look elsewhere.

PP 6 SPARTIATE(ENG) TR wicked JKY B Thompson ML 7/1

PIVOTAL(GB) x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x CAERLEON is the lineage of Spartiate who has shown a ton of talent going longer. His effort in the G1 Sydney Derby shows that the soft stuff is nothing to fear. I don’t know what to make of his success going longer. I think his trainer felt he may have been tiring at longer distances and 8f might be the zone where he explodes. Did win a G1 at a mile as a two year old but it has been a long time since then. He had a monster run in Smackdown at 12f so if the distance is right this stalker may find himself in the winners circle.

PP 7 GRATEST(FL) TR theatrical JKY K Philp ML 16/1

Despite the turfy pedigree CONGRATS x GONE WEST x LYPHARD most of this one’s 600k bankroll has been earned on the dust. Does own a nice stakes win on the grass but his last effort in a wet turf sprint leaves his trainer grasping at straws. He is coming off a long layoff that may have done him some good, but this is a tough spot to drop in for your first race since May. His 103 on dirt way back in march shows he has talent but there are too many reasons to believe that others are better suited.

PP 8 YASUTORA(CO) TR daedalus JKY P Bangs ML 9/2

If it feels like I have been overly critical of the first half of the field this son of ECKELSON x SEPTIEME CIEL x MR. PROSPECTOR is one of the reasons why. He had been on one of those dream sim runs until his last race. Three graded wins in a row including the 2000 Guineas plus a great bronze medal performance at Equinics. Have the rigors of this season caught up with him or was last race merely an aberration? His speed numbers are a lot better than most of what he faces here, he has had great success at this distance and he has drawn one of the best riders in the sim. What is not to like? If you look back to his second race you’ll see that there is reason to believe he will love the sloppy track too. Can he return the favor to Banner who beat him at Equinics. We’ll see.

PP 9 BANNER(IRE) TR 2tohold JKY R Dowell ML 3/1

The other reason I have been wondering about some in this race. The son of DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x DANZIG is locked in one of the sims best rivalries with Yasutora. He lost to Yasu in the Guineas but his last three have been awesome a blistering win in Smackdown, a silver medal at Equinics and a third consecutive 110 plus spf in the Maudlin. Have his superior bloodlines carried him past the Eckelson colt? Is he peaking at the right time? Ran 104 in his only prior slop race but it may not be as good as it sounds because it was an allowance race. His stalking style should be to his benefit in the wet and I can’t see this classy colt getting beat on Saturday, he can only beat himself.

PP 10 PROSPETARIAT(IRE) TR xssessiv JKY C Alexander ML 43/1

Since the end of March this son of SADLER’S WELLS x SEATTLE SLEW x MR. PROSPECTOR has not looked the part of a Grade 1 level horse. His SPF’s have been slow and he has lost by 5 lengths or more in each including a distant finish two back. If you are trying to get a horse back on form is it wise to try and find its best run at this level? That is a question the connections for Prosertariat are answering in the affirmative here. I have to respectfully disagree. I guess they feel the colt will take to the yielding track.

PP 11 FRIZIONE(KY) TR lasthope JKY R Owen ML 10/1

The MEDAGLIA D’ORO x NUREYEV x BUCKPASSER Progeny has turned in back to back 107’s at 9f one a win and one a very close second. While the most recent came in a G2 most of this one’s three year old campaign has seen him running against lesser. It is possible he steps here given his recent form, but the step up might have to be to big. Certainly a factor in exotics and could shock the world if the top two are off. Has never run on the wet stuff but would seem to be a plus for his blood lines.

PP 12 WAMPUS CAT(IRE) TR snakebite B Arsham ML 13/1

Out of HAWK WING (IRE) x STORM CAT x LE FABULEUX this colt is being cut back to the distance he had allowance success at early in the year. Two back he had a super effort at 12f in the Harbor City Stakes. The only thing that pops off the page that makes me think he can hang with the milers assembled here today is his 2-2 on wet grass. He is the only horse in the field that has proven he is a mudder. That said he has never been tried at this level and he is running into a field that has two of the best milers in the sim. Even the wet grass won’t save him but don’t be surprised if he catches minor spoils.

PP 13 DEDUCTION(KY) TR lenny12 JKY L Fontain ML 13/1

Yet another of the Evil Empire’s horde of top horses, this one is out of A.P. INDY x SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER. He is not the usual top contender we see from this legendary sim barn. His two tries on soft ground have not been good enough that you can overlook the fact that the best horses in this field have been going a lot faster than him. He has not won at this distance since January and his last mile was not good. This one might be best as a sprinter and I am not sure the last two clicks in this race won’t prove to be a bridge too far.

PP 14 FLAG THE BAND(KY) TR slewtpie JKY L Fain ML 14/1

After the pedigree line DIXIELAND BAND x SEEKING THE GOLD x HOIST THE FLAG there is nothing in this horse’s chart that would indicate he is ready to win an 8f turf race on soft turf. He has not shown great speed in the wet, his best race of the season was 10f on fast dirt and his speed figures are not in line with the top horses in this field. Not sure a career best effort even gets him in the top 5. No shame in that considering the strength of this field.

THE PICK

No real handicapper likes to like a favorite. Most of us come into the process with the notion of finding a longer priced horse that can beat the short money. In nearly every case this is my goal, but at a certain point in looking at this race I decided a short priced winner beats a hand full of tickets that are only useful in the Canyon Of Heroes. I see this as a two horse race between the top two choices. I am leaning towards Banner because he seems to be going better right now but Yasutora may be too good to keep down. The play is an Exacta box with these two and the price should be square enough that the chalk can be played without violating the handicapper’s handbook. Good luck to all of the connections and horses in a race that is bound to have major ripple effect across the sim rankings.