Silvergore vs. Demeco
The LA Derby is a very tricky race, it’s got a full field of 14, and none of them had been ready when it was Bluegrass Derby time. However, some of them had success in the post-Derby top races for 3yos. None of the entries looks like a complete no shot, of course some horses are shooting high after great ALW races, but none of them lacks 105+ speed, and that promises a great race. So let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 DEMECO(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153979
10 Races – 6 Wins – 898,264$
Demeco comes in on a 5 rcae winning streak, he is truly one of the upcoming stars in the 3yo scene. He took 4 tries to break his maiden, one complete flop on grass, before exploding. It was the 8th race of his career that saw his top speed go up from 97 to 111, both races over 10f. He cemented that performance with wins in the Grade 2 Mountanous Derby and the Grade 1 Travellers Stakes. He beat Bluegrass Derby winner Kissin Streetcry with a monstrous 114 that day. The Awesome Again colt is already ranked #10 among 3yo classic colts, but wants to take another step to the top this week. However, the 7/1 odds show he’s only 2nd favourite, so you can expect one even better looking horse to come.
#2 LUCKY’S MASH(ENG) 15/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145241
15 Races – 5 Wins – 712,830$
The With Approval colt is one of the few Triple Crown participants in this field,. He finished a great 4th in the Bluegrass Derby, but slumped at Maryland and New York. He rebounded in his only race afterwards by winning the Grade 2 Clerk of Sales Stakes over 9.5f. His speed of 104 was a lifetime high, and shows he is way under the radar needed to win today. He however has huge experience and has won a Grade 1 in his career, however needs to make a huge progression to compete this week.
#3 SHOOT FOR THE GOLD(ENG) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=997
16 Races – 4 Wins – 450,128$
The 3yo Cacique colt has had some up and down performances this season. He looked completely lost when finishing 13th in the Chicago Derby, a race meant to put him on the Derby track. He then came to life by landing a stakes race in June, only to fail in the Flat Land Derby. Ok, blame that on the good dirt. He showed a lot of progress in a Grade 3 in Colorado, finishing 3rd with a 105, and then came his last start to date. The DelPenn Travers saw him win a close one, with a new lifetime high of 112, and that sure makes him competitive today. He has yet to make such a performance in a graded race, even more a grade 1, look for him either to be right there, or completely fail.
#4 SILVER STAR ROAD(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=6003
17 Races – 5 Wins – 599,536$
The Silver Train colt went into Grade 1 company just back in June, and his first graded race brought him a win in the Grade 1 Princess Cup, followed by 3rd places in the I’ll Cry If I Want To and the Travelers Stakes, where he was beaten by Demeco. It is a career marked almost by randomness. He has run most of his races on turf, after a complete flop on dirt in his maiden, he was ridden in ALW Turf Sprints, with average performances, until switched back to dirt in March, and an immediate response by running out of ALWs, into the 100s and graded company. Has a good chance at a money finish this week.
#5 FLYING BRYAN(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=32508
12 Races – 5 Wins – 475,227$
The 3yo Royal Acedemy colt has already seen some up and downs of a racing career in just 12 starts. He has been praised as the next big thing, and well written off, after bad performances. Today he enters the race coming from an average 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Winchester Park Stakes, but he can do way better. I had the chance to see his career performance in the Grade 1 Swamps Stakes back July. Back then he came off a 2-week break from a 4th place Smackdown finish, and beat almost everyone except superstar Wireless Eavesdrop. No idea which Flying Bryan will show up today, but be ready for everything and anything.
#6 ROCK AND FIRE(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=35162
11 Races – 3 Wins – 449,339$
Despite his 16/1 odds look better, the Rock Hard Ten Colt is from my point of view the biggest outsider, he muddles around average 100 speeds, and finished 6th and 7th in his last races in Grade 2s, simply doesn’t have the class of the others, look for him to finish in the 2nd half of the field.
#7 BERNIE BERNIE(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=2809
14 Races – 5 Wins – 267,170$
After the Bernardini colt ran out of ALW conditions in May, he started his stakes career in the worst way possible, he finished 10th right here in Louissiana in a Stakes race, and his 93 suggested for a step back into some crazy ALW conditions, but his owner decided against it, and rigtly so. He went on to win a stakes race at Illinois next time out, and had his breakthrough race, winning the Grade 2 Winchester Park Derby last time out. Has yet to prove he can run the speeds of the favourites in this race, but looks a nice 10/1 shot, which I could imagine to run the race of it’s life today.
#8 SHETAN(KY) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=20695
13 Races – 3 Wins – 539,980$
The 3yo Storm Cat Colt looked very impressive in the Triple Crown, after 2 5th places, he finished 3rd in the New Yorker, and I think that shows he is more of a 12f horse, he repeated his 105 New Yorker performance only once, when he scored a 104 3rd place in the Derby in Sweden. Other races since then have been flops, including a turf try last time out. I doubt the step back from 12f will be the right move, I’d advise to try him back at 12f, where his obvious staying power could take him to the top.
#9 ROCK HARD KORN(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=147280
15 Races – 5 Wins – 612,196$
The last win for the 3yo Rock Hard Ten colt, came back in May, when he won over 11f in the Grade 1 Lonesome Cowboy Bert Special. His 5th place in the New Yorker was still a good result, but showed no liking for a sloppy track in the Giving Back Stakes. Recently he rebounded nicely with a 4th place in the Eddie Haskell and a 2nd place in the Winchester Park Derby last time out, only beaten by Bernie Bernie. Today he’ll have to perform much better to be in the running. From my point of view the 9/1 odds are way too nice for him, as I see him finishing out of the money.
#10 RUNOTENTERTAINED(KY) 21/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=10477
7 Races – 3 Wins – 140,200$
For horse racing viewers who believe in a slow preparation for a horse to get on the big stage, this colt did the opposite. After breaking his maiden in his 2nd start, and winning an ALW, he went into graded company, obviously hurried to score ranking points for the Derby, but a 7th place in the Win the Crowd… stakes meant a step back. He then tried a reasonable stakes race, finishing 3rd, but disappointed in the GR Simsters Belmont with an 8th place finish. His track obviously went into the ALW ranks, where he still has conditions left, he won an 8.5f ALW with a 108, and like after his first ALW in, shoots back at the highest sim glory, the Grade 1 today. I tend to believe an ungraded stakes race, seeing if he can stay ground at that level would have been the better move, but nevertheless, he could turn the 108 into his new playing field, which would be ok for a money finish.
#11 FLEET DAISY(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138321
15 Races – 4 Wins – 1,707,970$
The horse with the highest lifetime earnings in the field surely is only an outside shot. He shocked the racing world winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile last season at 10.5 odds, from then on he tried the hardest paths, not winning another race, but finishing 3rd in the Middle Jewel Stakes and 4th in the New Yorker, but he is another horse facing a post-Triple Crown depression. A 10th place in the Smackdown race led into an unmotivated try on turf, which we better keep silent about. Perhaps today he can bring another shock to the racing world, but I doubt it, it looks like his best days have been as a 2yo, but you never know with a former superstar.
#12 LORD CHACHIN(MD) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153138
10 Races – 4 Wins – 112,579$
The 3yo Dance with Ravens colt looks to have some potential, but has been struggling to bring his ALW success to graded racing. After winning a stakes race in Mexico back in July, he finished an average 6th in the Grade 2 Shiny Gem Stakes. It looks doubtful if he can stay the 10f trip, as he couldn’t get it done over 9f, his longest trip to date. He brings some nice speeds at the mile distance, but I don’t see them translating into the 10f trip today.
#13 SILVER SUNRISE(NZ) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143122
13 Races – 2 Wins – 351,232$
I always find it hard to explain, why people shoot at the biggest stage of racing with a 2-race winner, well, the Zabeel colt is no bad horse, he had his moments, when finishing 2nd in the Princess Cup or 5th in the Travelers Stakes. However, both days he was well beaten by horses competing in todays race. He surely likes the 10f trip, and can run it competitive, but a try at easier stakes or even ALW races may be a better playing field for him.
#14 SILVERGORE(KY) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145353
12 Races – 6 Wins – 481,964$
Last but not least, the bookies favourite, he brings the best lifetime speed of the field, a 115, when finishing 2nd last time out, beaten only by The Kid Stu. He came into the CA Classic with a 5 Race winning streak topping the Derby de Swedish with a 113. To me he is the horse to beat, but be aware, his speeds have come at 11 and 12f. He has even won at 13f. It looks like Demeco may be a better 10f horse, but expect the Silver Deputy colt to battle him down to the wire. The 2 horses have simply opposite running styles, while Silvergore likes the lead, Demeco battles his way through the field.
I take Silvergore with the early lead, but i pick Demeco to beat him in the final furlong winning the LA Derby.