Australian Sprinters to the Line
The 6f sprint for 3yos attracted a rather average field, 11 horses will tackle the Sprint Distance at Queensland Racecourse, 3 of them are heavily favoured by the bookies, but the field presents some nice longshots, that should be carefully watched. But let’s take a look at the runners:
# 1 LION STORMCAT(LA) 24/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138682
23 Races – 5 Wins – 126,845$
The 3yo lion Tamer Colt has made some major surfce switches in his career, his last back from dirt to turf came in his last race out. He won a nice 7f ALW race, but his lifetime 2nd high speed of 93 looks rather weak compared to top speeds of horses he’ll face today.
He’s specialiced in sprints, but is an average ALW horse, not more, simply outclassed today.
#2 FAROTTO(KY) 3/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=54397
14 Races – 8 Wins – 429,400$
The 3yo Forestry Colt was switched to turf after just 3 races on dirt, and two of those have been wins, but he has never looked back since, establishing himself as a great 3yo. He won a Grade 3 over 8f back in March, and his last 3 Outings all have been 105+ speeds, the 6f may be a tap short, as he preferred 7f+ in his last races, but he for sure can sprint. He likes to take the lead, or just stalk it into the last 2 f, to explode then. His only off-day have been the Craven Stakes this season, but he hammered the field in 2 recent Stakes race outings, and looks the top choice today.
#3 VAN HOEVENBERG(KY) 7/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=151413
10 Races – 3 Wins – 509,410$
The 3yo Vindication Colt ist he only Grade 1 winner in the field, and that success came last time out, in similar conditions and distance sourroundings at Longchamp in the Never Ready Sprint. But just like most succesful sprinters he has his up and down days, he ran a 106 in 3 of his last 4 races, with an average 97 in the 8f Smackdown Race in between. He really likes the 6f and is just exploding in the last half of the race, after usually starting slow. He relys on a quick pace set, so he can take the swing of the field. Major opponent of Farotto, with both running very different styles.
#4 DICK NIXON(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=4711
9 Races – 5 Wins – 116,051$
A very light raced Bandini colt, he likes to run on two month breaks, and the 4 week rest this time may be a problem to him, he won 4 straigth from February till May in ALW competition. His first Stakes appearance last time out in July showed his class, but a 107 speed mark was only good for 4th place, which may show his inexperience and may be blamed on him not taking the early lead. He’s the horse, that all will count on setting a quick pace, and he for sure can sprint. A nice outside shot, but not good enough from my point of view.
#5 TUSH(KY) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=33587
11 Races – 5 Wins – 159,110$
Is third favourite with the bookies, I think however thats aimed to high. The 3yo pleasently Perfect colt has struggled heavily in Stakes class in his last two outings, finishing 6th in the 8f Smackdown race and 5th in the Fried Rice Mile, but all races over 8f. This is only his 2nd lifetime sprint, so know one really knows for sure how good he is over the 6f distance. He has topped 100 in his last 4 races, and looks for a fast sprint time, likes to come from the back, and I fear others with the same running style are stronger.
#6 ANDAHERE(ENG) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=2095
8 Races – 4 Wins – 79,157$
The 3yo Dansili Colt just ran out of ALW conditions, with his 4th win, he has a nice 50 winpct., but all races have been ALWs so far. Takes a late step up to stakes class, but it’s difficult to say, of a Grade 1 not comes to early for him, his 102 lifetime high looks not made to win here. He really likes sprinting, but I fear he will not be fast enough to take the early lead, which is his prefered style of running.
#7 CHARMING CHIP(IRE) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=99060
11 Races – 2 Wins – 109,179$
The Danehill dancer Colt has struggled in his recent outings, his last win came back in March, and it seems he has a tough time, when facing stakes competition. His last two races have been on good turf, which makes judging his current form tough, but with a lifetime high of 101 he looks at least 6 points short of contending today, and his recent outings don’t suggest he can make that class jump. He’s another horse that likes to take the lead, which he’ll likely not suceed in today.
#8 GREEN IVAN(IRE) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144256
17 Races – 5 Wins – 213,453$
The 3yo Ivan Denisovich Colt is a pure sprinter, not even having attempted a route so far, perhaps he should, he really had trouble bringing his great 2yo races into his 3yo career, his speed stagnate, and a 99 is his lifetime high, run in a Stakes Race last time out over 6.5f. Given his struggles as a 3yo, i doubt he’ll be within the lead today, looks a little outclassed.
#9 SKY HAPPY(AUS) 17/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143004
22 Races – 4 Wins – 95,196$
Speaking of outclassed, the 3yo King of Happiness colt has a lifetime high on turf of 98, ran over 9f, and comes into this race backed on an 8f win at a Track ALW here in Queensland.
I suggest to run him in dirt routes, for sure he’s no turf sprinter, sorry, not much more to say.
#10 ALARPHARD(IRE) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153829
10 Races – 3 Wins – 91,028$
To enter the 3yo Alhaarth Colt into this Grade 1 may be a gamble, but one I like, he showed his sprinting class last time out, when winning a 6f ALW in a speed of 102. This just looks a little under what is needed to win here, and his front-running style will not be of an advantage, but he may just be on a rise form wise. Could be a good outside shot, if he gets the early lead, which will be a dangerous adventure, against Dick Nixon.
#11 CURIOUS CANDY(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135019
13 Races – 4 Wins – 406,200$
Another very interesting horse, the 3yo Candy Ridge Colt finished dead last in the 2000 Guineas, however he rebounded nice by finsihing 3rd in a 7f Stakes Race here in Queensland. He ran a great speed of 105, which puts him into competition here. It has to be seen how he handles the shorter 6f, but his form seems back up. He was a great 2yo, back then he won the Group 1 High Flyer Stakes in ireland, and was then sent to the Breeders Bowl, which proofed just to classy for him. His huge Grade 1 experience may be an advantageous factor, but his sprint class remains to be seen.
Overall a rather average field, with Farotto vs. Van hoevenberg being the big battle, perhaps Dick Nixon or one of the other front runners can hang on, but to me it’s basicly a two horse race, in which i like Van Hoevenberg based on his sprint ability.