Have You Seen a Tougher Contest?
Race 15 on this week’s
Let’s first revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of the eleven furlong events:
2000 – Alylouka – Newsire – 1.48.2 – 112 – Active (Unraced since Aug. 06) winner of $993k.
2001 – Blade Moving – Irishman – 1.48.2 – 112 – Retired winner of $1.3m. Dam of five runners – all winners – first four are low earning claimers, but 2yo Kaifville (Dixieland Band) looks good with one win from three.
2002 – Judge Flopping – Alysalley – 1.48.6 – 107 – Retired winner of $508k. Dam of six, but nothing of note thus far
2003 – Silence of the Sky – Steelewolf – 1.48.8 – 108 – Retired winner of $801k. Dam of:
……Giant Slice (
2004 – Dangerous Reward – Futurestar – 1.48.0 – 110 – Retired winner of $2.5m. Dam of four, including:
……Life’s Reward (Sadler’s Wells) – 5yo – SP. Winner of 5 from 35
……Army Ranger (War Front) – 3yo – SW. Winner of 3 from 16
2005 – Glass Heart – 4stardave – 1.47.4 – 111 – Retired winner of $1.4m. Dam of:
……Stolen Heart (Seeking The Gold) – 4yo – SW. – 5/16 – $185k.
……Be Still My Heart (Dehere) – 3yo – SW – 4/12 – $116k
……Seduced’nabandoned (Bernardini) – 2yo – 1/5 – $39k
2006 – Waki Notion – Looney1 – 1.47.6 – 109 – Retired winner of $2.7m. Dam of three, but with no black type as yet
2007 – K’s Joan Bach – Verdugote – 1.48.4 – 105 – active winner of $2.2m.
Historically we see that this race is a race for exceptional horses. Five of the eight winners have earned in excess of a million dollars throughout their racing careers, with another so close to the magical seven figure sum that she should also be counted. A good triple digit speed rating is almost guaranteed, as the lowest speed figure to take out the event was last year’s 105, while the race record of 1.47.4 was set by Glass Heart in 2005. We can be almost certain that the winner will need to break 1.48 in this, so many of the following comments will be based on this assumption
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
The inside gate holds Grand Isle as she lines up looking to overcome a minor hoodoo. She’s finished on the podium in fourteen of her twenty runs and her poor efforts can be counted on very few fingers. She didn’t like the rain at her only attempt. She didn’t like the grass at her only attempt, and the only other time she’s gone home empty handed came in her only other appearance against Graded opposition. That being said, the experience may have been good for her, and she’s lining up this week with impeccable recent form. She established herself last start as a worthy participant here, with a convincing win in an ungraded stakes in
Gate 2 is the starting position for Making Silver, and here we have the only near certainty in the race. Failing injury to one of the others, this filly is a certainty to run last. A three year old taking on the open age, she’s won just the maiden from fourteen starts. A top speed rating of 89 puts her at least 15 points off the minimum requirement for this event. Nicely bred, she’s by Silver Deputy from Empirical Evidence (Empire Maker / Storm Cat), a dual stakes placed winner of two from thirty. Unfortunately, the bloodline will not send shivers down the spines of her opponents. Trainer / breeder Cheyenne15 could have a lot of fun with this filly at a lower level, but this is simply too tough for Making Silver.
Barrier 3 is the starting gate for Vera Gemini. It’s probably fair to say that this filly has been generally disappointing since promising so much early. In May last year, at just her second run on the dirt, she took home the trophy in the G3-Snaggin’ Wagon Stakes. It would take another fifteen trips to the races before she would taste victory again. On a positive note, that win was in her most recent race, and although an owner restricted race, it was full of the usual black type quality found in DelPenn contests. Connections would love a return to the sloppy conditions she faced in that win two weeks ago, but they are not going to get them here. Superbly bred, Vera Gemini is a daughter of Kingmambo from Paralax (Danzig / Nijinsky). She’s the first foal of her Dam who was Grade 1 placed and a Grade 3 winner. She lacks nothing genetically, and although she has proven her class, that was a long time ago. Her most recent good form has been in allowance company. If the breaks go her way, she’s far from hopeless, but too many of her opponents appear to be doing much better at a higher level. The Super conglomerate can, however, never be underestimated and in a most even field, she lines up a genuine chance.
Drawn in gate 4 we find Graupoint. We’re beginning to see the three year olds take on the open age competition, and already this filly is no stranger to that scenario. This will be her fourth venture against the older brigade, and she’s getting closer to a win against them. She’s graduated from an allowance runner to a black type contender in her last five runs, and although her only victory at the higher level came in an ungraded stake, she registered a third, two starts back in the G1-Players Club National Oaks. It’s her most recent run, however which perhaps provides the best guide to her chances this week. Back against the older mares once again, after running fifth and seventh at her first two tries, she ran a game second. She virtually established her credentials in the upper-age bracket while returning a 107 speed rating and providing the evidence that she’s capable of running the time. Superbly bred, Graupoint is by Point Given, and is the second (and more successful) progeny of the Dual Grade 1 winning, A rated mare Grausturm (Storm Cat / Vice Regent). Owner / trainer Xanderman is giving her every opportunity to follow in her mother’s footsteps, and she continues to improve with maturity. She’s unlikely to be caught up in any early fight for the lead, and a strong finishing run from midfield is on the cards once again.
Drawn in gate 5 we find Desperado’s Song, a four year old stepping up to graded company for the first time, but doing so off a performance which makes the transition inevitable. Seven weeks ago, at the prestigious Smackdown meet, she lined up over these conditions and demolished fourteen classy opponents, stopping the clock at 1.47.2. She’s one of a few coming into this off career best efforts and like those other contestants, a repeat of her most recent effort makes her a serious threat. Of minor concern is the fact that for most of her career she’s faced lesser opposition. But on the subject of consistency they simply don’t come much better, as she’s finished on the podium in fourteen of her last fifteen starts (fourth in the other run). She may have just the solitary stakes victory on her formpage, but she’s finished ITM in a total of fifteen from twenty one. She’s gone home without a check just twice in her career and has banked over $433 for connections. A daughter of Unbridled’s Song she’s based on Magicmysterytour (Deputy Minister / Forty Niner), a winner of 7 from 37. Desperado’s Song has already outperformed her predecessor. She is racing in career best form and she is likely to find a comfortable run about midfield in this before motoring home. Breeder / trainer Desperado2 will watch the race knowing that no other horse in the field has ever run a faster nine furlongs.
Barrier 6 is allocated to Balance. This filly presents a real ‘yes she can’, ‘no she can’t’ scenario. On first inspection she clearly has several obstacles to overcome. She’s won just four from twenty nine. She hasn’t won for over a year, and her best win has been in an ungraded stakes. Now let’s look at the positives. She’s dropping in class. Her last half dozen have been Grade 1 and Grade 2 events, and she’s finished on the podium in three of them. Although she hasn’t won since April last year, she’s amassed eighty stakes points by running top races against quality opposition, brining her into this field as the top qualifier. Three times in the last year she’s run third in Grade 1 races, and add another three Graded placings from those ten starts and the form starts to look impressive. She’s been beaten half a length in higher Grade races twice from her last four and she’s proven she can run the type of time that will be needed here. While Chloedawg’s scratchbred daughter of Thunder Gulch / Kris S. / Forli certainly cannot be tipped with any great confidence, that long overdue Graded victory for Balance would come as no surprise.
One Most Tempted will exit the 7 barrier, as she looks to take the next step up in class. She’s established a liking for this distance, and her most recent run six weeks ago showed that, at her best, she’s developed the pace to prove a threat in this. Three starts back she was a handy allowance runner. Two starts back she stepped up to ungraded stakes level for the first time and ran fifth of twelve. Last start she produced the run of her life. Again against ungraded stakes opposition, she accounted for a field of seven, stopping the clock in 1.47.6. In the Olympic spirit, we’ll express that as smashing her personal best by 0.8 of a second, or slashing her previous mark by about four lengths. Importantly, it’s a time which would have won all but one of the previous renewals of this race. The only questions to be answered are these. Can she repeat the run? and Can she graduate to the higher level of opposition? Affirmative answers give her a genuine chance. One Most Tempted is a scratchbred daughter of Afleet / Unfuwain / Niniski. Chloesdad has her racing in career best form. She won’t lead, but she’ll be eyeballing the leader all the way, looking to intimidate her way to post in first position.
From stall 8 jumps Derby Cat, a four year old mare who was dropped back in class for a solid program in the allowance ranks, before returning to the higher classifications last start with a devastating display. Although beaten at her most recent run, that effort when second behind Star of the North in the G2-D-Day Distaff, provides the best guide to her chances here. That race was conducted over the nine furlongs of this race. The winner stopped the clock in 1.47.4. This filly was motoring home and, in an attempted to win her third consecutive nine furlong test, failed by just half a length. A Daughter of Storm Cat, she’s based on Louisville Slugger II (Rubiano / Raja Baba), a consistent stakeswinner who took home the winner’s share 15 times in a career of 48 races. Derby Cat began her racing with high level success as her immediate aim, running second in G2-Boca Stakes at her fifth run, and a solid fourth two starts later in the G1-California Oaks. Breeder trainer Rtribbett the made the decision to return her to the allowances to gain maturity. That decision may pay its biggest dividend this weekend, as this filly has now established that she likes the trip, she can run the time and she can handle the class. She’s been given seven weeks off since her last outing. Look for her to settle just rearward of midway, before unloading in the run home.
Gate 9 is the starting position for Swooshy Fast, a more than handy four year old who has earned a tilt at Graded racing with a pair of solid performances at the Ungraded level, following a comprehensive grounding at the allowance level. The major concern here is simply the strength of the opposition. Although officially just a Grade 3 race this has, as it has every other year, drawn a field of horses which would not be out of place at the highest level. Is she up to that standard? At her best there’s no doubt she can run the type of time required here, and the bookies have given her plenty of respect because of it. But there remains that strange, intangible quality called class. Although she runs fast, she hasn’t been able to run fastest in listed stakes, so taking on a field of established Graded runners may be a bit of a task. A daughter of Black Minnaloushe, she’s based on Star Caliber (Seeking The Gold / Generous) a winner of 4 from 39. Breeder Trainer Oddsonfav has a great run with this filly thus far, she proved with her allowance win three starts back that she can go fast enough. Connections will get a good run for their money, as she’s sure to settle handy on the pace. If she can cope with the depth of quality, Swooshy Fast is worth plenty of thought.
Gate 10 is the starting position for
War Chariot, drawn 11, is something of an enigma. It’s seems to be setting a task to ask a filly, with 22 starts under her belt, to take on Graded company without testing the Ungraded waters first. But she’s racing in such great heart recently, and finishing off her races with such authority, that she shouldn’t be underestimated. Looking at her last ten or so runs, you’d swear she was calling out for even more distance, but that was tried earlier in her career with unflattering results. Her last four runs, where she’s recorded healthy triple digits each time, give plenty of cause for confidence. She’s regaining that winning feeling, taking the prize twice from her last three runs, so a step upwards in class is definitely on the agenda. War Chariot is a daughter of War Chant, from Sal Pulpit (Pulpit / Strike The Gold). Of her four progeny only stakes placed Ekaterina (Empire Maker) has black type form as yet, but this filly may soon rectify that. I can’t help but feel that trainer / breeder Gipper9 is asking her to do a bit too much this week, considering the overall strength of the field, but if she does manage to launch from the rear and turn in a career best blinder, it will not really come as any great surprise.
A Quiet Year, drawn the outside gate, brings an extremely impressive strike rate of 50% into the race. A most astute pickup when Kevoman2 claimed her as a three year old, her third trainer has converted her from a tagged racer, to an almost unbeatable allowance runner, and a permanently threatening chance in the higher rankings. Her biggest problem appears to be that indefinable quality called class. Although she runs quality races at these higher levels, once she steps up from the allowances, she generally manages to find an excuse to be beaten. Looking at raw statistics, her last eight allowance races have seen her win seven and run second at the other. In contrast, her eight black type runs for the stable have produced one win and two other placings. However, focusing the positives: Her black type win was four starts back. Since then she’s run third in the G2-Wizzer Stakes and lines up here as a last start winner. She’s racing in the best form of her career, and although connections would have preferred the sting out of the ground, she’s no slouch on the firm track. A scratchbred four year old daughter of Quiet American / Dubai Millenium / Nashua, A Quiet Year has proven she can run the time which will be required here and the bookmakers have acknowledged that, installing her as equal favorite. Expect her to cross behind
Summary and Selections:
A really tough event to try and summarise, as there are so many variables and possibilities. The bookmakers have it right. There are eleven genuine chances in a twelve horse field, so we’ll eliminate Making Silver first up. Graupoint, 11/1, the other three year old, is progressing nicely as three year olds are meant to do at this time of year. War Chariot, 10/1 is improving every run and could well thrive on the extra half furlong now. Vera Gemini, 9/1 beat some very good horses over this journey last start. Six runners at 8/1 – Grand Isle benefits from the rail and a repeat of her last run puts her right there. Balance drops in class. One Most Tempted only needs to repeat her last run. Derby Cat was second under these conditions at Grade 2 last start. Swooshy Fast doesn’t run bad races and
Balance to win. I’m tipping her because I want to. If she retired before this race, she’d go to the breeding shed as a ‘D’ rated broodmare. She deserves much better than that and, if she were mine, I’d be racing her in much the same way as she is raced now.
Desperado’s Song for second. She has the best individual performance of any runner, and she’s always in the mix
Graupoint for third. It’s time for the three year olds to step up, and she’s taking impressive steps. As the longest priced genuine chance, she’s probably the best across the board play.
The Market:
5/1 – Desperado’s Song, A Quiet Year
8/1 – Grand Isle, Balance, One Most Tempted,
9/1 – Vera Gemini
10/1 – War Chariot
11/1 – Graupoint
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Balance – 14
Graupoint – 63 – 3yo rating
A Quiet Year – 78
Grand Isle – 181