Top filly looks to climb Mountain

By ITCH

After sending a hologram to China to cover the Equinics, your real WV reporter is right here in the Old Waterford grandstand, getting ready to dive into the past performances for this year’s Grade 2 Mountainous Derby.

Between covering the 3yo 9.5-furlong turf race in China and the Mountainous Derby here in West Virginia, we’re getting to cover a rather large segment of the leading 3yo’s in the classic division on both dirt and turf here this week. This is an enjoyable opportunity, indeed.

That includes Binzaman’s Smackdown champion SISSON’S MARK, around whom this year’s Mountainous Derby show revolves. This late, late-closing brown daughter of the Darshaan sire Mark of Esteem put her second Grade I under her belt last out with the Smackdown victory. She’s No. 4 in the Classic Division on the dirt on the distaff side, which translates to a No. 1 seeding in this year’s Mountainous Derby. Will that translate to another victory, this one against the boys? We’ll see, and it’s certainly not automatic at 5-1. The West Virginia track rarely plays to dead-end closers. Another potential red flag is that this filly hasn’t fired the last three times she’s raced at distances longer than 8.5 furlongs. She’s been 10th, eighth and fourth in her last three forays going at least nine furlongs, the distance of the Mountainous Derby. Leading jockey S. Tate is aboard, and if anybody can get the job done, it’s him. We’re certainly glad to have this fine filly in these West Virginia hills and wish her luck, but we’re not sure we’ll be lining up at the windows to back her at 5-1.

Second qualifier is ZAPPER MAN from Pedro’s Racing Empire. This is a pretty tough 19-barn outfit, winning proficiently at an aggregate 16.3 percent with a total of 1,498 winners. A pretty tough horse, too, and as the top qualifying colt in the race has raced much more proficiently beyond a mile and a sixteenth than the filly has. The only time that Zapper Man did not win in his last four races at 9 or 9.5 furlongs was two back in the Buckeye Derby, when he came up a little empty in the lane and finished fourth, eight lengths back of eventual winner CAT CREEPER, and three lengths back of FOLSOM BLUES, who spoiled KISSIN STREETCRY’S Triple Crown bid when he got up in the Middle Jewel. The Mountainous Derby is a Grade 2 like the Buckeye Derby, but not nearly as tough a field. We might expect Zapper Man to fare a little better than fourth here in his second try at graded company. The only caveat against total confidence is that this horse is getting a little heavily raced of late. He ran two weeks after the Buckeye Derby (and won), and races back here on three weeks’ rest.

One of the cool things about working for the BTB (in addition to the stash of Bailey’s behind the coffee maker), is sometimes you’ll get to cover a horse more than once. Such in the case with the third-place qualifier, LSU Mark’s TOUGH GUY. We were on hand in Texas in April when Tough Guy ran the best race of his life when second in the Grade 2 Texas Derby. Unfortunately, it looks like that was the zenith of Tough Guy’s form cycle, as he’s regressed in two races since. A third-place finish in the sloppy Grade 2 Captain Hook coupled with the worst race of Tough Guy’s life last out in a non-graded stake sent him to the shelf for a two-month freshening. We’ll see if the summer vacation has this fast son of Macho Uno ready to hit the books again here in West Virginia.

Novanora is going to shoot for graded company here with the consistent EDDINGTON LAKE, who has hit the board in four out of five non-graded stakes races despite never breaking the triple-digit speed fig barrier. He’s run twin 98s in his last two, but never 100, which in unusual for a consistent stakes 3yo colt. With those lackluster speed figs, Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker Charlie Hoop dismisses this colt at 13-1. He might be worth including underneath in exotic tickets, however, especially when you consider how his closing running style matches with his jockey, the equally drunken Jocko Maloney, who never met a late runner he did not like.

KEPLER SADDATH qualfies fifth for Marre. This brown son of Rock of Gibraltar is looking for a form reversal here, as he’s been scuttling a little bit of late. He’s missed the exacta in five straight races, and has been off the board in his last two. It might be that Marre has this race pegged as a soft Grade 2. Why else would he turn around on short two weeks’ rest with a horse in spotty form? This one appears unlikely as he’s been struggling against short fields in non-graded races and meets 12 others here in a Grade 2. He was well beaten in his only graded try and the fact that he’s qualfied fifth here probably confirms that this is not the strongest Grade 2 in the world.

DIXIELAND DOOTER is an interesting colt for Gcutty. This son of Dixieland Band has shown he can run all day, finishing a close-up third in the Grade I Lonesome Cowboy Bert Special going 11 furlongs. That good race served as a prep for the Grade I New Yorker going a mile and a half, but Dixieland Dooter was not up to that class, fading to be nearly distanced by the near Triple Crown winner Kissin Streetcry. It figures that such a difficult race would be hard for a horse to recover from, and Dixieland Dooter is indeed seeking a form reversal here off two lackluster races since the New Yorker. He’s also in here off a short two weeks’ rest since off the board in a short field of five in a non-graded stake. He’ll need a better effort to be in the picture in the lane here Saturday.

BOLD JOHN looks a lot more like it. This light gray son of Cozzene has been moving it lately for whitetiger’s Windward Farms, and is named the favorite at 9-2 for Saturday’s race despite qualifying all the way down here in seventh place. Why? Well how about these sizzling speed figures? This horse ran a 109 last out when second in a non-graded stake going a mile, and backs that up with two 106s in two of his last four. The only problem is, he’s running fast and not winning. The 109, 106 and 106 were all good for place money only. Based on speed figures alone, this horse is a standout in this race. Based on class? You’re backing a horse in a Grade 2 who never has won a graded race. It would be nice to see him run fast and win instead of running fast and coming in second.

GOIN TO GUSTOS won a non-graded stake going 9.5 furlongs in March with a very nice 105 speed figure, but he hasn’t been the same since. It seems like sometimes all it takes is one bad race to turn a horse off, and that appears to be what has happened with this brown son of Smarty Jones for Tmp Stables. He went from that nice speed fig straight into the Wooden Indian Derby Lock prep race, where he got his clock cleaned and finished ninth. He hasn’t been the same since, missing the board in three of his last four. He hasn’t raced since June 21, so maybe the freshening will wake him up.

So far, OTTO GRENADES of the Pierchinski Stables has shown no inclination to go a route of ground in graded company, which he is asked to do again here Saturday. This chestnut son of Bernardini graduated from consistent speedy showings in allowance company to win a non-graded stake in early April going 8.5 furlongs, but that earned him two butt-kickings in Grade 3’s going long. He was 10th in the Barbara Walters, then 13th in the Hollywood Knights Classic. It was nice to see the horse rebound somewhat last out in a non-graded sprint, but it’s hard to get too excited about a horse who’s never broken the triple-digit speed fig barrier and raced so poorly in graded company. Now watch him go!

WAR CAMP has been spotted conservatively so far in his eight-race career, in which he’s never missed the exacta while racing up through his allowance conditions. This is how Woody Stephens would have done it, and the Dr. A Stables say it’s time to go for the big prize, especially off those speed figures improving to 106 and 103 in his last two. Unlike many of his rivals in this race, War Camp has yet to be bloodied in stakes competition, and enters the race full of confidence. It’s his stakes debut in graded company, representing a double class jump, but we have to agree with Peter Forsberg that this is a likely spot and the time is now for this good-looking son of War Chant. He looks a lot more likely that several of his rivals here.

One thing we know for sure about SUMMONS, racing here for Rocket22. He’s not going to be a short horse on Saturday. This sturdy brown son of Forestry has won two straight non-graded races going 12 furlongs, and cuts back to only nine furlongs here. That’s going to be an interesting challenge, but this is a rock-solid, hard-hitting horse who can carry his speed a distance of ground. Anybody in the Sim would love to have a horse this good. He was ahead by 14 1/2 lengths at the head of the stretch last out! This is a developing iron horse and it will be fun to see what he can do in the Mountainous Derby.

Believe it or not, the top speed figure in the race is way down here in the 12th qualifying position, next to last. Fatattack’s DEMECO exploded with a giant 111 last out in an N4L allowance in Dubai. Any trainer worth his salt is going to be looking to move up off a race like that, and Fatattack is no exception. He loads this talented chestnut son of Awesome again onto Lone Star Racing Airlines and flies all the way from the desert of Dubai to the hills of West Virginia. It’s a big jump from N4L to a Grade 2, but the horse has to be respected off that big race, and you have to respect the Lone Star Stabes with that gaudy 26.3 percent career win rate.

Finally, we have GIANT HEIGHTS for Jrogue Stables, whose form is quite a bit similar to Demeco’s. This is a horse who had been racing with mixed success and sub-100 speed figures in allowance company, then exploded last out with a giant 108 speed figure while clearing his N1X allowance condition. This is a horse who has shown a dangerous lick of speed going this distance, and can be expected to contest the early pace here Saturday. The big number last out is not the only similarity Giant Heights shares with Demeco. In Jrogue, Giant Heights also is guided by a shrewd Sim veteran. This 40-barn outfit has won more than 3,200 races at a very strong win rate of 18.2 percent. If Jrogue says the horse is Grade 2 ready, you have to put some credence in that opinion.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!