The Denny Tario(G2)
Dance Fever meets Derby Fever.com?
14 talented sophomore gals tangle Saturday in the 10th annual tribute to
Wait just a minute, before we get started, does anyone remember the cheesy 80’s TV “talent” competition called “Dance Fever”? That’s right kids, before “Dancing with the Stars” or “So you think you can dance” tackled the airwaves; there was a disco version (starring Mr. Tario) that aired for a few, less than memorable, seasons. So I guess Denny is a pioneer of sorts (but is he even Canadian?)
Anyhow, this race shapes up to be hotly contested. Even the odds makers couldn’t decide a clear cut favorite. Heck, I’ll bet even the old D-List celebrity judges of Dance Fever would have a tough time picking a winner out of this very competitive field.
Turn on your smoke machine and light the lava lamp, let’s check out our field.
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
1 Die Verwandlung(GER) 12-1 chilcoat2 10:3-1-3 $138,273 43 V.Townsend
The inside post will be occupied by chilcoat2’s German filly Die Verwandlung, which translated means “The Metamorphosis” (very old school book written by Franz Kafka). After 3 consecutive impressive wins (in allowance and overnite stakes competition) chilcoat2 is obviously beginning, (what he/she hopes) is a metamorphosis of this youngster into a Graded Stakes winner. 3 Races back, she led late in the G1 California Oaks before giving way. Last time out she posted a career best 97 SP (on wet dirt) in the G3 Timber Stakes, so she may be well on her way. Best when she’s upfront, Die “V” will have lots of competition for the lead here. Consistent in the 90’s for speed, this one seems well-conditioned to hit the board. Jockey Townsend won this very race in 2006 (on a 13-1 shot), can he do it again?
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
2 Sisson’s Stown(KY) 10-1 mine2 12:4-3-3 $115,923 125 Mo.Johnson
Beaten favorite in her last (G3 Timber Stakes), Sisson’s Stown is looking to rebound and gain a measure of revenge vs. fellow entries Die Verwandlung & Hoosier Queen (whom both outran her). I am sure trainer mine2 would attest that she didn’t care for the off-track conditions and will fare much better here. I would tend to agree! In fact, if you toss out that last race, it is hard to be hotter than Sisson’s Stown(KY) was leading up to last time out (with 3 easy wins in allowance and overnite stakes). She likes to be out front, but the best game plan may be to repeat her winning performance in the Kelly Bubble(NZ) where she stalked the leader before racing on by. This race will be her toughest competition to date, so she’ll need to shake off that last race and regain her top form.
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
3 Hoosier Queen(KY) 13-1 buzzards 6:4-1-1 $167,530 88 K.Cogswell
This very interesting prospect comes to us from the Kk1039 Barn under the wise tutelage of trainer buzzards. Hoosier Queen(KY) has been gently moved through the ranks toward Graded Stakes competition and also eased into longer distances (beginning her short career solely as a sprinter). Each race she has shown improvement, capping off with a G3 Timber Stakes win (over fellow entries Sisson’s Stown & Die Verwandlung) in her last outing. While the increased distance seems to agree with her, my concern would be whether the career best 100 SP in that last race was attributable more to the conditions, or to her continued improvement (3 straight convincing wins). She’ll have to beat a tough field on a bone-dry track here. But Hoosier Queen(KY) is definitely a willing closer and could benefit from the early leaders tiring if the battle for the early lead takes it’s toll.
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
4 Luzerne(KY) 5-1 malekfarms 10:2-3-1 $138,750 82 T.Sherr
In other pro sports, people like to evaluate teams based on “Strength of Schedule”. In the case of malekfarms’ Luzerne (KY), those folks would definitely take a liking to this filly. She is coming off a brutal schedule of 3 straight G1 events (including the 20 horse free-for-all, the Bluegrass Oaks). This horse has posted excellent SP figures in those events but only has a third to show for it. She’ll try to break an eight race losing streak against a lesser graded, but nevertheless, competitive field here. Malekfarms will likely place her mid-pack and try to run down the tiring frontrunners. She’s battletested and capable; there’s no doubt that if she fires her best effort in this one, she’ll be around at the end. She just needs to remember how to win (again).
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
5 Suicideplaydate(ENG) 5-1 danmancan 14:6-3-0 $264,340 168 D.Conrad
Definitely a favorite of the 4077th M*A*S*H crew, this daughter of Suicideispainless (the name of the theme song for the seventies TV program…boy am I old…sorry!), is running wild as of late. The light seems to have come on for Suicideplaydate(ENG) and she’s a major threat in this race. One question, I have would be the lack of route races coming in to this event. A G2 is a tough spot to test out a new distance! But, trainer danmancan would be quick to point out that his horse has been driving to the finish in her last 3 races and the distance may suit her just fine. That blistering 105 SP and 2nd place finish in the G2 Fence Fryer Stakes last time out would back that theory up (she likely would have won going away at a mile)! “S.P.D” will likely come from just off the pace and we’ll see how that extra distance shakes out this time around. I have a feeling that if anyone can place a youngster in a suitable race, dan-man-can!
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
6 New
A surprising (and impressive) 3rd place finish in the G3 Great Fiddle Sticks Handicap has inspired trainer paddy to try another graded stakes with his/her filly New
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
7 Bathsheba II(KY) 13-1 dormello 5:3-1-0 $90,590 91 L.Dro
The gameplan for jockey L.Dro is probably pretty simple, “hang on”!! This lightly raced filly has what appears to be rocket-like early speed. She’s never trailed even a single call on dirt vs. other 3 year old girls. Bathsheba II(KY) has been able to wire fields at the 1 1/8 mile distance she’ll be asked to go in this one. Her speeds are improving as well, as evidenced by her 100 vs. the boys in the Fourth Spice Challenge Stakes. That effort was likely trainer dormello’s attempt to prepare his horse for the rigors of Graded competition. It will be interesting to watch the early pace to see if fellow horses like the 1 (Die Verwandlung), the 10 (Cut Some Shapes) allow Bathsheba II(KY) an easy lead. This is by far the toughest race (and largest field) that she has faced to date. Let’s she how she does!
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
8 Storm Giant(KY) 28-1 super10 9:2-1-4 $70,407 240 T.LeVan
Always hard to believe it when a horse from the vaunted super stables goes off at such high odds! This does look like a rather ambitious spot for Storm Giant(KY) to succeed in. This horse has been productive in allowance and overnite stakes company but has yet to eclipse an 86 SP. Storm Giant(KY) is the daughter of 2 Times Stakes Winning He-Mare Storming Through and may just be a late bloomer. Also to super’s credit is the fact that they won this very race just 2 years ago with Ran Away, so this is not exactly unchartered territory for the syndicate. Will likely try to close from midpack, in hopes of capitalizing on an early speed duel involving Bathsheba II(KY).
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
9 High Spirits(ENG) 6-1 paydirt41 12:7-3-0 $388,290 33 B.Renfroe
Let me just double check and make sure I typed the career earnings for this horse correctly! Wow, that’s pretty impressive for just 12 races! This horse just wins (6 for her last 8)!!. High Spirits(ENG) strikes me as the kind of horse that expends only enough energy to get the job done. Her SP’s haven’t been off the charts, but there is really no difference in purse money when winning by 10 lengths as opposed to winning by 2. It will be interesting to see if she can extrapolate her recent 100 SP in the G3 DelPenn Keeneland over a longer distance (7F to 9F). Also, her career best 103 was over a wet track, which High Spirits(ENG) seemed to really like (in her last race, the G3 Go For Broke Stakes). She seems to prefer a just off the pace running style. Paydirt41 no doubt has a big money horse, and I am looking for a big money effort here. Perennial
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
10 Cut Some Shapes(IRE)19-1 adonai 13:5-1-2 $117,887 98 V.Staff
First try at graded company for the adonai trained entry Cut Some Shapes(IRE). This filly has shown some first rate early speed and it will be interesting to see how she rates with some of the speedsters assembled here. American Baseball fans may remember the great Kansas City Royal Pitcher Bret Saberhagen. This horse reminds me a bit of Bret! How so, Downboy (you ask)? Well, Saberhagen was infamous for alternating good seasons with bad seasons throughout his career. Cut Some Shapes(IRE) shares that tendency a bit (alternating between very nice 90+ SP one race and then a mediocre 80+ SP the next). Don’t get me wrong, when she’s on, this filly is very good. Once adonai masters a way to make this filly consistently good, she’ll likely be able to regularly compete in graded company.
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
11 Wolfeboro(KY) 7-1 privetdriv 8:5-1-2 $186,065 42 N.Linville
N.Linville has been leading the Jockey Standings this year at
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
12 Unreal Wolf(KY) 13-1 graywolf17 9:2-1-2 $52,530 503 S.Bahr
It is a common tale. The quest to make a very good allowance/overnite stakes company horse into a graded stakes runner. Trainer graywolf17 is working with Unreal Wolf(KY) in an effort to accomplish that very task. Graded Races can be a bit like job interviews sometimes…you don’t always get the job, but each interview is an opportunity to learn where you stand and how you can improve. On the other hand, they are kind of like the lottery as well (you can’t win if you don’t play). So I guess what I am trying to say is that sometimes you may take your lumps in the graded races, but you really need to know how your horse compares and what improvements/adjustments can be made. Unreal Wolf(KY) is definitely on the cusp of becoming a horse on that next level. She is coming off a career best 95 SP at this very track last time out. A repeat of that performance would make things quite interesting for the rest of the field. She has the ability to close from very deep in the field, so if things shake out just right, she could surprise.
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
13 Palm Jumeirah(KY) 14-1 borrow1 8:4-1-1 $177,706 141 N.Rhodes
Ahh yes, the beautiful artificial
PP Horse Odds Trainer Life Time Rank Jockey
14 Smelly Green Stuff(ENG)7-1 inzamam 14:4-3-2 $203,378 52 R.Heenan
I just asked called my doctor and he confirmed my worst fear…there is no cure for the Smelly Green Stuff!! Another of the cleverly named horses in this field, Smelly Green Stuff(ENG) is a filly on the brink of her first graded stakes win. She led late into the stretch in the G3 Jockey Guild Stakes before tiring a bit at the end on the wet dirt. The 102 SP posted in that race was a career best for “SGS” and a sure sign of good things to come. I’m wondering a bit about the condition of the horse as trainer inzamam has rested her for 8 weeks leading up to Saturday’s race. She’ll no doubt be rested, but will she need a race to re-claim the razor sharp form of her last race? This filly likes to run at or near the lead. If she’s at her best, there could be Smelly Green Stuff in the winner’s circle on Saturday!
So, who’s gonna win? After reading this article, do you really have any idea yourself? Ok, let’s break it down. Look for horses 1,7, & 10 to battle for the lead with 2,5,9,14 to press them from just off the lead. That leaves the other seven horses to plan a closing path with 3,4,11 & 13 the most likely to run the leaders down. Let’s just enjoy the spectacle and have a race worthy of the of the legendary Denny Tario. (Ok, well, let’s just have a great race!)
downboy