Grade II Rippleschip
The seventh running of the Grade II Rippleschip Stakes has attracted its second largest field and some of the best trainers in the world. Twelve three-year-old fillies get to stretch out to a mile and a half on the turf. For most of the field, this is their first try going this long.
Winning the Rippleschip has been a good omen for most of its past winners – all have gone on to win more stakes races, and half have gone on to win more graded stakes.
There are as many unknowns in a race like this as there are in handicapping a two-year-old race this time of year. So many of these young runners are just coming into their own, and it’s hard to say how they’ll handle the class and the distance.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 CRIMSON REGRET(SAF) (WOLFHOUND x IN THE WINGS(GB) x GENERAL MEETING) bred and trained by icbomber7 (The Danby Road Connection, 11%) Odds: 10-1
Modestly bred filly steps up after a pair of seconds in overnights. Both races had pretty strong fields, and the fillies she lost to are both graded winners. There’s not much to say about Wolfhound. The bulk of his offsprings’ winnings have come in routes, though it’s hard to find one that has even run a race this long. Crimson is an even runner, lightly raced and improving. She’d be a surprise but only a mild one. High percentage connections are doing their best work here.
PP 2 XTRA PLATINUM(KY) (BERNARDINI x DEPUTY MINISTER x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by ejdstable (Ejdstable Stable, 21%) Odds: 9-2*
While several in here have gone 11 furlongs, Xtra is one of only three to have raced this far. She was second against an average overnight field two races back, and then hit a triple digit figure in her graded debut last time, earning her favoritism today. Her last two races showed improved speed figures, but they came on off tracks. It’s up to you to decide if improvement came from maturity or from the track conditions. Trainer is one of the best in the Sim. Bernadini is only into his second crop, so there’s not much to go on, other than that he is out of A.P. Indy, and that’s good news.
PP 3 ACETELYNE(KY) (A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by arse2007 (Black Label Stables, 20%) Odds: 20-1
Speaking of A.P. Indy, this daughter of his makes an ambitious climb in class here. While impeccably bred, she has yet to crack a 90 speed figure or even enter an unrestricted overnight stakes before this. She’s also been facing smaller fields than this. She should contribute some to the early going.
PP 4 MAKING SILVER(KY) (SILVER DEPUTY x EMPIRE MAKER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by cheyenne15 (Demoney Racing Stables, 7%) Odds: 15-1
Silver’s best race came two starts ago in a Grade III dirt sprint. She tried a restricted race at today’s distance last time, and her connections are hoping the terrible performance was due to the off track. She will likely enjoy getting two races in a row on the same surface, though this might not be the best surface. Silver Deputy’s get have had limited success on grass and a longer races.
PP 5 DANGEROUS WATERS(KY) (A.P. INDY x NORTHERN DANCER x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by billiam40 (Willyam13 Stables, 12%) Odds: 6-1
Our second A.P. Indy filly, Waters looks quite dangerous here. Her 102 figure last time in the Grade III Filly Bonanza leads the field. And the filly that nosed her out for the win has gone on to win another Graded stakes. She will be coming from far off the pace, and that style has worked before in the Rippleschip. The biggest question for her to answer is whether she can handle the distance. Her longest previous race was only nine furlongs. If you think she’ll take to the distance, she’s an overlay at 6-1.
PP 6 XXX RATED(KY) (UNBRIDLED’S SONG x KINGMAMBO x NORTHERN DANCER) bred by lenny11 and trained by lenny14 (The Evil Empire, 22%) Odds: 6-1
A betting angle I like is when a horse runs with an entirely different style in its last outing. XXX departed from her come-from-behind style to wire the field last time in her first stakes and her first long race. I have no idea if this is a viable angle in the Sim, and the overnight field she beat was not strong, but she showed she can handle the distance; she showed she can handle stakes; and she showed versatility. There is precedence for Unbridled’s Song to produce a marathon turfer. I liked when the track announcer two races back made what sounded like a stuttering “k” when trying to pronounce her name.
PP 7 THE XMAS SPIRIT(IRE) (HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x KRIS S. x CARO(IRE)) bred and trained by shamran (Shamran Stables, 12%) Odds: 13-1
Shamran changed his picture on the stable page from the nice looking young man to something more….more what? Let’s say goofy for now. A case can be made that entering this filly in this race is goofy. Her figures are well below several others in here, and she’s winless in her two overnight races. On the other hand, High Chaparral has had a lot of Sim success with long turfers, and this just may be a crafty move as she gets her first try going this long. Former figure skater Steffi Graf takes the irons.
PP 8 GREEN OASIS(KY) (DEHERE x
She’s been steadily improving, except for her lone start in a graded race, and had the weather turned rainy, she might have been an interesting longshot. She’s never run farther than nine furlongs before, and Dehere runners with a lot of success in marathon stakes are pretty rare. They are out there, though, and it’s surprising how few runners are ever given the chance at running long.
PP 9 LEGAL TROUBLE(KY) (COZZENE x UNBRIDLED x CAERLEON) bred and trained by lenny8 (The Evil Empire, 20%) Odds: 7-1
Lenny’s entries are always dangerous, and this one showed marked improvement last time at 11 furlongs. She’s still a step or two behind the top ones in here, and although the bulk of Cozzene’s offsprings’ winnings came in turf routes, a quick search for stakes winners at long grass races came up empty.
PP 10 MOUR OF THE CAFF(IRE) (AZAMOUR (IRE) x DESERT KING (IRE) x GRAND LODGE (IRE)) bred by corka trained by corzacan (Corza Stables, 10%) Odds: 32-1
This longest priced filly has tried graded stakes twice before, beating exactly one horse in the process. In her defense, she made an eight point improvement in her speed figure last time when she went from 10 furlongs to 11. This gives reason to be optimistic that in the long term her best races will come at distances like today’s.
PP 11 CAVALIER CHANT(KY) (WAR CHANT x KINGMAMBO x CAERLEON) bred by grandarmee, trained by aggots (Briant Breeding & Racing Empire, 15%) Odds: 7-1
Two of the past three winners of the Rippleschip had finished in the money in the Grade I Sydney Oaks. This filly was second at
PP 12 EMPIRE OF OLD(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x
The number one rated older distaff long grass horse, Lex Luthor, is also by Empire Maker, so that gives Barndog hope with this filly. She’s certainly shown a preference for longer races, and she’s the second choice in the morning line after a nice allowance win. Her lone stakes win came at against three others in a nine furlong Puerto Rican race, so she hasn’t quite enetered Lex Luthor’s league. Her dam tried the turf twice without success. Lots to like and lots to question with this one.
Summary: Historically, the Rippleschip offers few patterns. It’s been won wire to wire twice and from well off the pace; it’s been won by a 3-2 favorite last year and by a couple of 12-1 shots. So we’re left to handicap on our own. We’ll select: Cavalier Chant / Xtra Platinum / Dangerous Waters.