Jerzey City Handicap – G3

Jerzey City Handicap – G3 3616.0915

Grade III
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$150,000
All horses, 3 years old and

Alpha enters this race off of a career best effort earning him a 108 speed figure. A late bloomer this is his 2^nd triple digit speed figure as a 5 year old. After his last triple digit figure he regressed badly so I would expect the same pattern to occur here. Also out of three previous stakes tries his best finish is a 3^rd. Wrong timing for the top as that only occurred in an Allowance 15k race.

Wylde’s first graded stakes try came in his most recent race which resulted in a 12^th place finish. A 4 year old with only 11 starts this is his first try at 9 furlongs.  Wylde has several triple digit speed figures so the only question is whether or not he can handle the extra distance. I will throw out his last race as he bounced off a career top but he may still be not be ready for a top effort. At 6/1 not a bad play if you think the distance won’t be a problem.

This horse is a 99-1 for a reason. With his only win coming in a maiden claiming 10k event and his speed figures at least 30 points slower this horse is an automatic toss.

Mosayter comes into this race off of two straight graded stakes tries where he finishes 11^th in his last race and 3^rd in the race before that. Both were grade 2’s at 8.5 furlongs, so today he is stretching out by a half a furlong.  The 11^th place finish may have been a result of racing back too quickly as he was only given two weeks rest. All 4 of his wins were won in gate-to-wire fashion so we know the tactics for this horse. There doesn’t look to be an enormous amount of speed in this race and I’m willing to forgive his last race effort off of only two weeks rest.

I will dare to play against this horse. This horse put up a nice 3yo season winning a couple of stakes and posting triple digit speed figures. But all of that early racing seems to have taken a toll on him as he tailed off late in the 3yo season and his form has continued to be off. His last race was in allowance company and came in 2^nd going 12 furlongs. The 87 speed figure is somewhat slow but the race was 12 furlongs. I still don’t think this horse is back in form so I would pass but 11/1 is not a bad price if you think otherwise.

This is a tricky horse to handicap as I think there’s a chance he may follow the 0-2-x pattern. Which is a top figure followed by regression then a bounce. This horse has several stakes attempts but has yet to win in those races also. His numbers compare favorably but he may just be a cut below stakes competition.

6 Straight triple digit speed figures for Woodlawn he exits a grade 3 stakes in which he finished 2^nd. But this is another horse that has yet to win in a stakes race out of several attempts. I like this horse’s pattern and spacing but as the favorite at 4-1 I just can’t endorse this horse. He doesn’t overwhelm the competition but I wouldn’t be surprised if he put forth another solid effort and won.

A 3 year old on the improve Boogalee comes into this race off of two straight wins. His most recent top of 107 is very competitive with this field but he has to face older horses for the first time in his career. I think another top isn’t out of the question as this is a young horse that has been lightly raced with good spacing. At 16-1 you cannot go wrong with this horse. This horse has never been higher than 7-1 in his career, an absolute steal at 16-1 if you don’t mind playing a younger horse vs. older horses for the first time.

After cutting back from 11 to 9.5 furlongs Charm Oh posted his career best figure of 105 in his last race but that only resulted in a 6^th place finish. Only 1 other speed figure above 100 but once again that was at 9.5 furlongs. He has been primarily racing at longer distances so maybe another cutback will help as this is a 9 furlong race. At 14-1 this is a horse who can hit the board if the cutback helps like in his last race.

Bad Sin has the best figure in this field with a top of 115 which occurred 3 races back in the St. Niner Cap going 10.5 furlongs. Another horse who has been racing primarily longer but this horse is 2 for 2 at 9 furlongs albeit against lesser competition. Very playable horse at 5-1 only finished off the board on the dirt once which was a 5 furlong race. A must use in exotic plays.

The 2^nd choice in the field of 11 Highasakight comes into the race off two consecutive clunkers and was given a month off. With a top of 113 he is certainly competitive in this field but the recent dull form concerns me. He never finished off the board in a turf race until 2 starts back. I think the rest will help but at 9/2 I can’t make a good case to play this horse and would prefer others.

Handicapping Recap:

I made this race between 6 horses, #2Wylde Summer, #4 Mosayter Connect, #7 Woodlawn, #8 Boogalee, #9 Charm Oh, and #10 Bad Sin and I was able to narrow it down to 3 pretty easily. I’ll go with #10 Bad Sin to win. 2 for 2 at this distance, the best fig in the field and 5-1 isn’t a bad price. I’ll take #4 Mosayter Connect for 2^nd.  I would’ve liked to see another week of rest for this horse and might’ve been my top selection is so but I think he will have a tactical advantage and should hang on for 2^nd. For third I’ll use #8 Boogalee. The age difference scared me off this 16-1 shot but should be able to hit the board and could still win. A definite overlay for you longshot players.

1^st: #10 Bad Sin

2^nd: #4 Mosayter Connect

3^rd: #8 Boogalee