German Heat Wave
NIXON’S PROMISE
Grade I
One mile
Fast Dirt
$500,000
All horses, 4 year olds
This unique Grade I brings the top 4yr old dirt milers to Germany, some of the stars have come to shine on this fast track, the last two days have been all sun, and that sets us up for a grade race, 16 runners made the field, let us take an inside look.
#1 ANCESTRAL VISION(KY) 14/1 19 Races – 7 wins – 308,880$
Lots of Graded stakes experience, but so far no Graded Stakes placing, is a winner at ungraded stakes, and needs to be at his best, ran his lifetime high speed Number of 110 2 races back. Has had a disappointing outing in a Grade 2 last time, is an up and down horse, who seems to lack consistency, if he has an on day he can be in the money
# 2 LIFEFORCE(IRE) 10/1 21 Races – 8 wins – 749,350$
Switched from turf to dirt 6 races back, and has responded well for his connections, after winning the Craven Stakes on turf, and finishing 4th in the prestigous 2000 Guineas last year, he has moved to the dirt this season, and responded with a stunning 118 speed figure in the Sand Castle Mile, he looks set for another great run at 1 mile, tried at 9 furlongs last time, he showed he lacks some stamina, but with his showing at Dubai, he should be headed for a front finish here.
#3 LINE OF DEFENSE BG(KSA) 12/1 34 Races – 11 wins – 177,860$
Takes a huge step in class, but has a winning form, now with a 4 race winning streak, he brings some top notch numbers into this race, the Colt worked it’s way up, but we will see the difference between dominating ALWs and running against solid Competition in a Group 1, worth an outside shot, but more likely taking a step too high.
#4 I NEED THIS(KY) 21/1 13 Races – 4 Wins – 100,892$
Another ALW winner making a step up, he however is stakes placed, but nevertheless, to run in a grade 1 you should have at least shown your capable to compete in Graded Races, so I have to say, will need a miracle to finish in the Top 3.
#5 WOODEN MINISTER(KY) 7/1 – 14 Races – 5 Wins – 591,326$
The Bookies make him the joint favourite, and looking at his memorabilia you can understand why, his greatest day came in the Group 1 Sterile Mile, where he beat some of the sims elite milers, the Hennessy Colt comes in with a good form, finishing 3rd in the Grade 2 Eviscerator Stakes back in April, the 6 week rest should have done him good, and so look for a fly into the finish, as he likes to come from the back.
#6 WATERGATE SCANDAL(KY) 7/1 – 20 Races – 9 Wins – 397,836$
The 2nd Joint favourite, he comes with a well shaped form, loosing just by ½ a length to Lifeforce in Dubai 2 back, he however won very solid in a nice prep at an ungraded stakes race at this track 6 weeks back, the form says all go for this horse that likes to take his wins wire-to-wire.Still looking for a Graded Win, it could come in this Group 1, that he should lead into the first turn.
#7 ARASAD(IRE) 11/1 – 27 Races – 5 Wins – 257,535$
Having trouble finding the winners circle lately, this Traveller has been looking for his best distance, connections placed him at all distances from 8 to 10f recently, and he showed some light at his last outing in Ohio finishing 2nd in a Ungraded Stakes Race in ohio, I’d say a Group 1 is asking too much here.
#8 END OF THE BENCH(CA) 12/1 – 37 races – 10 Wins – 384,313$
Not only taking a step up in class, but also taking a huge step down in distance, while finding success at 10-12f lately, he hasn’t run the mile since November last year, it’s tough to understand this placing, as he won 4 stakes Race at much longer distances, and prepping a horse for speed in a Group 1 seems an uncommon thing, so his owner is likely expecting something, I don’t.
#9 BOC ANGELIC(FR) 11/1 – 23 races – 6 Wins – 227,990$
With the last win in an ALW race back in December this step to a Group 1 Race is tough to explain, he ran pretty average in a Group 2 last time out, and placed in a couple of ALW races this year, as he likes to come from the back of the field, it will be tough for him to find his way through, another horse I can’t see making the money here.
#10 CHANGE YOUR MIND(KY) 13/1 – 16 Races – 5 Wins – 251,034$
Perhaps this horse can change his mind today, after a promising early stakes win this year, the last 3 outings make it tough to believe he’ll have a shot today, another horse that likes to trail the field and punch his way through after the 2nd turn, I doubt he will, finishing 6th and 5th in graded races last time, this is another likely average finish.
#12 GOLDEN KING(JPN) 14/1 – 15 races – 4 Wins – 83,983$
One of the few in this field not even having won 100,000$ to date, he could easily double his career winnings today, a nice win in an Ungraded Stakes Field posting an 111 speed mark looks great, very lightly raced this Forty Niner Colt shouldn’t be counted out, the Bookies seem to do so, for me he is the best odds representive, making him my outside pick.
#13 NAGASAKI(IRE) 12/1 – 23 Races – 6 Wins – 696,290$
A very experienced Graded Stakes runner this colt comes to the start, don’t look at his odds, the question is, are his best days over, winning a couple Grade 2s as a 3 yr old, his 4 yo campaign has been disappointing so far, he takes home nice paydays in 2nd and 3rd, but can’t win a big one, his experience may take him into the money, but I can’t see him in the winners circle.
#14 ALOHA AGAIN(GB) 29/1 – 27 races – 6 Wins – 200,407$
The Bookies hate him, and well, I can understand why, his wins have all been in ALW company, and his best Stakes race was a thrid, at Spain in March, it’s tough to see this horse perform at a high level, he simply should be moved back to ALWs, where he had a very good record.
#15 CAT DADDY(KY) 9/1 – 19 races – 6 wins – 141,948$
This is a horse that punters seem to like, as his odds have been shrinking this morning, however he also takes a huge step up in class, he won a nice 8.5f race in january at oregon, but since then has found it tough to reproduce such class, as lots of horses seem to like coming from behind, he will be in a massive fight in the end and likely will struggle.
#16 CREEPY MESA(KY) 12/1 – 19 races – 6 Wins – 514,115$
Another Race that likes to trail the field, however he has shown great class in march at Ireland, where he won a Grade 2 with an astonishing speed number of 118, so his ability is huge, however he has failed to reproduce anything similar in the rest of his career, as career Days seldomly come twice, it’s more likely, that the 2007 Derby runner will find it too tough in this field.
I’d like to go with Watergate Scandal reversing form with Lifeforce, and taking home the field wire-to-wire,
Look out for Golden king, he takes a huge step in class, but could be a notable outsider. Wooden Minister can have a shot, but needs to avoid early trouble, with all those horses that like to come from the back.