Jersey’s Bumblebee Classic
In four of the seven previous runnings of the
Another trend in danger of ending is the dominance of early speed horses, as the likely contenders all prefer to do their running late. Early morning rain figures to produce a wet track, making it all the harder to pick a winner.
Let’s have a look at the field:
PP 1 VAN NINE T(KY) (VAN NISTELROOY x FORTY NINER x RAHY) bred and trained by performanc (Perfomanc Stables, 8%) Odds: 20-1
Filly is 0 for 4 in overnight stakes, but her nice win in a n3x allowance emboldened her connections to try the highest level of racing. Van Nistelrooy has no active graded winners from the past five crops, and this filly’s lack of success at this level, low speed figures, and a jockey that has trouble putting his riding boots on the correct feet would make a win surprising.
PP 2 BELLE OF THE BUDA(KY) (KINGMAMBO x
This longshot has run against a few in here before. She finished behind Desecration Smile and Magnificent Dubai in a recent overnight stakes and well behind Pravda in the Ouchy Nips. She does have a win against a fair field in an overnight, and she’s been in the money in 13 of her 16 starts, but the three out of the money races were recent and she hasn’t looked good against a field as good as this. Dam was a Grade I winner on the turf.
PP 3 DESECRATION SMILE(KY) (UNBRIDLED’S SONG x A.P. INDY x BOLD BIDDER) bred and trained by daninja (Daninja Stables, 11%) Odds: 7-1
Was a length behind Suzyniner and Spooky Wildcat in the Cubic Zirconia Path last time, but she still is worthy of her co-favorite status. Surprisingly in such a good field, she is one of only three here with a recent win in an unrestricted graded stakes. Deep closer has been very consistent, and in her four starts on off tracks she’s shown that she’s not bothered by a little mud in her face.
PP 4 STAR OF THE NORTH(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER x
While she’s raced more in sprints, she’s been even better at this distance. Many reasons to like her. Her 115 speed figure last time leads the field. That figure came in an upset win
PP 5 CLOUT(KY) (STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x ALYDAR) bred and trained by lasthope (Dixiedotco Racing, 27%) Odds: 7-1
Clout also exits the Wizzer Stakes where she ran an even second to Star of the North, and her amazing connections are delighted to see the off track. Clout has five wins in eight wet starts. She tried graded stakes early in her career, and they did not go well. That Wizzer race just showed how this Storm Cat filly is just getting better and better. Would not surprise.
PP 6 LEMON RULER (LEMON DROP KID x LANGFUHR x MISWAKI) bred by shockwave, trained by starstruck (Twoofus Stables, 15%) Odds: 7-1
With only seven stakes points, this six-year-old mare was the last qualifier in this over-subscribed field, yet she finds herself a co-favorite in the morning line. That rating is based on her consistent triple digit speed figures, but there are some clear flaws. While Star of the North and Clout were rallying in the Wizzer, this mare was losing ground. But the biggest issue is the last half furlong. Almost all of her success has come in sprints, and half of those wins came in starter allowance races. She’s only one for nine around two turns.
PP 7 SUZYNINER(JPN) (FORTY NINER x
The last four races have each been faster than the last. Last time she just missed catching a classy lone speed runner. Today’s race features a likely lone speed runner that should be easier to catch. She’s two for two on off tracks and comes from a Breeders Bowl winning dam. It doesn’t look like Suzy’s peaked yet; she looks very good here.
PP 8 CAT O’ NINE LIVES(KY) (TALE OF THE CAT x RIVERMAN x EL GRAN SENOR) bred and trained by austar (Son Carby Lodge, 16%) Odds: 12-1
Based on a pair of quick wins in unrestricted allowance races, she was invited to run in the World Cup, where as a three-year-old she pulled off a big upset. She followed that with a second in another Grade I, but then showed nothing in the Breeders Bowl and ended her three-year-old campaign with an even, but not-so-impressive 6th in a DelPenn stakes. Then she took a five month vacation. With that World Cup win and the second in the Three Smokestacks, she remains rated in the top ten in the division. This is her second start off that layoff. She prepped with a very nice second in a strong overnight sprint. Just off that race, she appears to be a better runner than she ever was before. With the top ranking in the field, she attracted the services of jockey Benisz, who already has over 100 wins for 2008. She may surprise.
PP 9 ALL THE RICHES(KY) (SAINT LIAM x
This second place filly in last year’s Bluegrass Oaks deserves more attention than most might give her. Yes, she hasn’t won any of her last ten graded starts, and she hasn’t even been close in her last four, but look back eleven graded stakes ago. Both of her tries on off tracks were quite a bit faster than the races that preceded them. A similar improvement would give her a speed figure that would be very competitive here.
PP 10 SPOOKY WILDCAT(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by photo41st (Bulletwork Stables under new management, 15%) Odds: 9-1
After winning four of her first five lifetime races, this expensively bred filly looked unstoppable. She was favored in the first two legs of the Triple Tiara last year. But after those first five races, she ended her three-year-old campaign in August, winning only one of her last seven races. She returned to racing in April after a nine month vacation. Her first race back, she was caught late by Desectration Smile. Then she was caught late again last time by Suzyniner for the place in the Cubic Zirconia. This makes her third start off the layoff, and she’s matured and running faster than ever. Expect a big effort this time.
PP 11 HEY HAYLEY (SARATOGA SIX x PIRATE’S BOUNTY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by rharfo (Rharfo Stables, 13%) Odds: 12-1
This mare makes a surprise appearance here. This is her 36th start, and her only other try around two turns was two and a half years ago. Rare is the horse that can get its first graded win after 35 races. What she really has going for her is the “good” surface. Every time she’s run on an off track, her improvement has been huge. It’s tough to expect that angle to overcome distance and class issues, but it’s possible.
PP 12 PRAVDA(KY) (KINGMAMBO x PLEASANT COLONY x
“Truth” has failed to bring home a check only three times in her life, and with three graded wins to her credit, she is always a threat to win. That she won a graded stakes in the slop is a plus, but her form appears a bit off from her peak last winter.
PP 13 MAGNIFICENT DUBAI (POINT GIVEN x
This six-year-old could not ask for more favorable conditions. She is the lone speed horse in a race that historically has gone to early speed horses. She’s also two for two on off tracks. The problem is that she’s had easy early leads many times, yet has usually been an easy one to catch. Desecration Smile and Spooky Wildcat both caught her in her last grades stakes, and she faded to 6th after leading by almost four lengths last race. It’s all in the hands of an average jockey.
PP 14 HILL VALLEY(KY) (SLEW CITY SLEW x DIXIELAND BAND x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by hornets07 (Knightmare Stables, 10%) Odds: 15-1
Crushed an allowance field last time in the slop. She clearly moves up on the off track, but she’s never been in this strong of company before – in fact, she’s never been in the money in an overnight stakes, and she’s never been able to put two triple digit races together before. A win looks unlikely, but she should be near the lead early, and she has shown staying power when the going gets wet.
Summary. It appears many trainers shipped in because they were attracted to the off surface. So many in here love the rain. I’m anticipating improvement based on where they are in the form cycle as I pick Spooky Wildcat / Suzyniner / Clout.