Sabbath Point goes for history in the Chestnut Stakes
GI 11 furlongs fast dirt 3yo fillies
The excitement mounts with the possibilities of a sweep of the three races that comprise the Triple Tiara for the filly division of three year olds. Sabbath Point (KY) looks to take the GI Chestnut Stakes in New York this week to add her name to the history books. Twelve opponents have shown up this week to try to spoil the moment in New York, and we must ask the question, can they do it? To spice it up just a bit we also have three foreign invaders trying to steal the show from America.
PP1 World Ambition (AUS) 12/1- Bung1 (107-25-13-11)
CJ Anderson (7.6%-26% 3.7%-20% in 2008)
On the rail we have the Aussie invader, who is a daughter of Encosta De Lago out of the mare S Noyes (G-rated Crafty Prospector x Devil’s Bag). This is a lightly raced filly having only nine starts, but seems to be on the improve at the moment. She does lack a stakes win at this point and only has a third in a graded stakes last time out in the Go for Broke Stakes. She ran a career best speed figure in that race with a 100, but that number is probably not close to what it is going to take this week. The distance might be a problem as well as he best distance seems to be around a mile or nine furlongs. Her pedigree does not scream for eleven furlongs. Her performance has improved speed wise, but not necessarily result wise from the switch to closer from front runner. There is very little speed in this race, and she is not close to the best closer. If she is way back early she has no shot. I really think she needs to be up front and try to hang on for a piece. This is a huge jump in class for her, and I simply do not know if she is up to that challenge. The third place finish last time out in a GIII is a bit of a mirage as the field was short, and there was not much in the race.
Expected pace- Can be anywhere, has been a deep closer and a speed horse. Would expect a run from way back if she has a run.
Expected finish- 8th– Do not think she will be up front early, and seems to lack the true class to close with a soft pace.
PP2 Cosimo (ENG) 14/1- Stormboot2 (172-40-25-21)
N Painter (10.3%-30% 11.3%-31% in 2008)
Next we have a scratch bred daughter of Medicean (GB) out of a Danzig mare that is my super duper secret upset special. While this horse has not yet broken a 100 speed figure yet, she does have two huge things going for her. Pace makes a race they say, well she is the speed of the race, and there is very little other true speed in the race. Saarahy (KY) out in post 11 has some early speed, but is untested at the distance. This girl has run at eleven furlongs before (last time out), and simply crushed a short field of four in the Cankerous Parade Challenge, leading by no less than four at any point other than the start. If there is one horse that could steal this race this is her. Her speed figures are in the middling range of this race field, but at eleven furlongs, it might not take much. Not a pedigree that would seem to love this much distance with the Mr. Prospector line on top with Danzig on the bottom, but she really digs the distance. She might get caught, but I think she is in the picture at the finish.
Expected pace- On the lead or right there at the throat of the lead. Not a one dimensional front runner, but is close.
Expected finish- 2nd Might just get nipped at the wire but she has a real shot to steal this race.
PP3 Battle Music (KY) 39/1- 2ofus (640-102-104-76)
V Jennings (17.3%-45% 24.2%-54% in 2008)
In the three hole we a regally bred daughter of Unbridled’s Song out of the mare Battle Song (D-rated War Chant x Seattle Slew) with three career wins. This young lady is coming off of a career best effort in her only stakes win at 9.5 furlongs with a speed figure of 97. This is a really tough call on this one, as her pedigree suggests that her last race was a positive result from stretching out, but could also be a factor of the five horse field. All of her wins have come in short fields, and both NMOS wins have come in fields of five. I think it most likely is the latter. She is usually moving towards the leaders at the line, but does not seem to get there, but has been closer as the races get longer. This is a case of a horse that lacks a lot of speed and is mostly a grinder. This may sound silly, but I think this race is going to be a bit too short for this girl. I really believe her best racing is going to come at marathon distances of 14 furlongs and greater. She will most likely be 17-20 lengths back early, and I think she is going to loose interest like what happened in the GI California Oaks, where she was distanced in a field of 14. In that race she was 20 lengths back at only the second call.
Expected pace- Deep closer.
Expected finish- 13th She needs more distance and will be way too far back early.
PP4 Black Flag Flying (KY) 7/2- Simsters1 (349-69-53-45)
F Gossett (19.7%-48% 25.4%-56% in 2008)
Out next in line we have one of the three fillies that will be competing in all three legs of the Triple Tiara. She is a daughter of super sire A.P Indy and the multiple graded stakes winning dam Burning Flag (C-rated Forty Niner x Blushing Groom) with almost $750,000 in earnings. She was a decent second to Sabboth Point (KY) last time out with a career best 106 speed figure. As with all horse the jump from nine to eleven furlongs is a bit of a mystery until they try it, but her pedigree says that she should be fine. There is no question that she is a deep closer, but tends to sit a bit closer to the pace than Sabbath Point. I think for her to have a shot she needs to be much closer this time as she simply lacks the closing speed of the favorite, and must try to get a jump start on her instead of trying to out run her. She might also be ready for a bounce as this is her fourth race in just over two months, and a career best last race. No way does she not get a check, but I don’t think she will be a huge factor in the finish.
Expected pace- Deep closer.
Expected finish- 4th Great horse that is going to regress a little bit. Had he shot last race, but could surprise this week, but I don’t think so.
PP5 Dehere Dabear (KY) 12/1- Peepshold (229-29-32-29)
D Givins (20.4%-48% 24.7%-53% in 2008)
Next up we have a filly that doesn’t so much have a family tree, but instead sports a family trunk. She is a daughter of Dehere out of the dam Robot Chicken (G-rated Deputy Minister x Danehill) and is making her first start since her disappointing 15th place finish in the GI Bluegrass Oaks. She has a career best speed figure of 100 which was two races back, but I don’t see hr making a move forward this race. Even if she runs the race of her life it most likely would still not quite be enough. She is yet another deep closer that lacks the turn of foot to close on a soft early pace. She did have a very nice race three back winning easy at 9.5 furlongs, but that happened against a short field of seven.
Expected pace- Another deep closer. Someone has to lead right?………right?
Expected finish- 11th She is going to win a lot of stakes races in her time, but this field is a bit too tough for her this week.
PP6 Rattyburg (KY) 8/1- Darnath3 (759-84-100-96)
J Caves (19.2%-47% 18.4%-49% in 2008)
Next we have another horse retuning after their crack at Sabbath Point, and she left with a sound beating and a tenth place finish. She is a scratch bred daughter of Johannesburg out of a Wild Again mare with five career wins, one of which was a GI win in the California Oaks. I do not think that she is going to enjoy the extra distance as her pedigree is sporting a sire and dam sire that throw slightly more sprinters than routers. In the Bluegrass Oaks she started to make a run at the far turn, but flattened out down the stretch and really didn’t due much. I do like that fact that this horse has not been babied against hand picked short fields, she has raced against the best there is, and has run some huge races. Her career best speed figure of 102 is good enough for a decent finish, but I don’t think we see an effort that good this week. She is battle tested against strong deep fields, but lacks enough speed to be a factor this race. She is a bit of a plodder.
Expected pace- Yet another deep closer, but can be placed a bit more forward if need be.
Expected finish- 9th Could get up for a check, but I don’t quite think she has the class to win a race this tough. She is going to win a lot of races after this one though.
PP7 Sabbath Point (KY) 3/1- Malekfarms (561-98-84-67)
W McClendon (20.1%-49% 23.9%-51% in 2008)
In the seven post we have another scratch bred, this one of the Seeking the Gold type out of a Seattle Slew mare. What more can I say about this filly except wow. She ran at the time a career best speed figure of 101 back in March. Bounce next race out right? Nope, blasted a career best 108 next time out, also in March. Has to bounce after that right? Not even close, fired a 107 in the Bluegrass Oaks. Of course that next race she HAS to bounce right? Nice try, only another 108 while winning the second leg of the Triple Tiara. So she has to bounce this week right? I am not betting on that happening. The Triple Tiara is for her to lose, and she is the favorite and the best filly in the race. I do think that the only horse she has to fear is Cosimo in post number two. That horse has run the 11 furlong distance before and could very easily get an uncontested lead. Unlike most of the horses in this race, Sabbath Point tends to be closer to the pace, and most likely will not let a horse get too far away. This filly is a beast.
Expected pace- Mid pack, should be in the first bunch after the pace setters.
Expected finish- 1st Should be in the winners circle with carnations at the finish (it is carnations right?).
PP8 It’s Rather Cloudy (ENG) 14/1- Borrow (355-51-53-41)
J White (21.5%-53% 26.1%-59% in 2008)
In post eight we have a scratch bred out the super turf sire Pivital (GB) out of a Storm Cat mare. This is a filly that was a beast as a two year old, but whose form has tapered off since her dominating GII win in December. She started out on fire winning her first four races, but has not reached the winners circle since, and no top three finishes either. She tried the turf two races back and that was an unmitigated disaster finishing last in a four horse field as an even money favorite. Her last race was a career best speed figure of 99, but that is not going to be enough this week. I think you get what you see in this filly in that I don’t see any great increases of form, she was a dominating two year old, and that is what it is. I have had several of those types including one that won over 800K as a two year old, so I share your annoyance that they are washed up at three. This will be a great mare at some pi9nt and should be a solid point producer for some time.
Expected pace- Deep closer.
Expected finish- 10th Don’t see much of a shot this week. Not the same horse she was last year.
PP9 Prado’s Ballado (KY) 17/1- Jockeymax6 (814-183-148-100)
B F Abman (21.9%-54% 22.3%-52% in 2008)
Yet another scratch bred, this one a daughter of El Prado (IRE) out of a Saint Ballado mare with six career wins. This lady ran a very impressive 101 in a stakes race last time out, but must be looked at critically. The 101 was against only four other horses, and her true form is more of her 13th place finish in a GI two races back. She has won five of her last six races, but none of the wins were in fields greater than eight horses. I really have no idea where this one will be. She should be somewhere mid pack early, but I don’t know if she has the turn of foot to be moving late. She should absolutely love the distance as she has stamina influences all over the place. She could get a check, but I don’t think she has much of a shot to win.
Expected pace- Deep closer/ midpack.
Expected finish- 7th Not sure who she can pass late to get up for a check; there simply is not bad speed in this race.
PP10 Grandstand Delight (KY) 7/1- Al (1116-168-152-149)
N Lawton (18.5%-46% 23.8%-54% in 2008)
Next up we have a daughter of Rock Hard Ten out of the dam Cat Phyllis (G-rated Storm Cat x Seattle Slew) with four wins in eleven starts. This is another filly that will have raced in all three legs of the Triple Tiara, and has a very good shot at the huge upset. This girl is always moving at the leaders at the finish, but doesn’t usually get there. Do you know why? In her last three races she averages about 14 lengths of the pace at the second call. The added distance might really suit her, and actually might like two miles at some point, and hell could run three is she had to. She should be flying at the end, but probably won’t get there for the win, but should be in the money at the wire. There is not a lot of pace in this race so it does not set up real well, but she is talented and will be passing horses late based on pure class.
Expected pace- Deep deep closer, makes the other deep closers looks like speed balls.
Expected finish- 3rd has not been close in the last two legs and I see nothing to change that this week. If there is an upset however, this is one of two that could do it.
PP11 Saarahy (KY) 10/1- Simond2 (1254-172-145-155)
P Cadigan (13.1%-38% 13.1%-41% in 2008)
In post eleven we have a daughter of Saarland (Unbridled- I had to look too) out of the mare Dancing Rahy (G-rated Rahy x Northern Dancer) with six career wins, five of which are listed stakes wins. Her last race was the Bluegrass oaks, and she ran a very respectable fifth place with a 103 speed figure. This is the other true speed of the race, although she is better in a stalking trip and that is where I expect to see her. If however she breaks badly she could let the inside speed get away to an uncontested lead that is bad for everybody except Cosimo. I don’t think she has the speed to get the lead, but should be pretty close to what should be a softish pace. I think she gets a check, but I don’t see a scenario that sets her up for a win this week. I think she will handle the distance fine, but there are some questions to be answered on that.
Expected pace- On the lead or close to it.
Expected finish- 5th if she can repeat her Bluegrass oaks performance she could hit board.
PP12 Impact’s Empire (JPN) 59/1- Timmo601 (66-10-3-13)
O A Haack (19.9%-50% 22.5%-53% in 2008)
Next up is the Japanese invader, Impact’s Empire (JPN) who is a very lightly raced daughter of Deep Impact out of the mare Sadler’s Wells (G-rated Empire Maker x Sadler’s Wells). She has only four career starts, with only a maiden victory to show. Normally I would say this horse has zero business being in this race, BUT why not. She is bred to run all day and part of the next, she ran a career best 95 speed figure in her last race at eleven furlongs, and the field was not full. So why not take a shot this week. I don’t hear anyone complaining about casino drive in the Belmont this week after only three races. She appears to be a deep closer, but two of her four starts have been in very short fields, so who knows where exactly she will be early. This horse is an absolute wild card. Do I think she can win? Nope, I seriously doubt it. Can I say she has zero chance of running a big race? Nope can’t say that either. I think we will be hearing from this horse in the fall.
Expected pace- Deep closer.
Expected finish- 12th lacks experience, but might be a very classy horse that could pick up a surprise check.
PP13 Dream Cat (KY) 13/1- Elzid (315-23-31-36)
A Rolling (22.9%-56% 28.3%-60% in 2008)
On the outside we have a scratch bred daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of a Northern Dancer mare with only two career victories. This lady had a graded stakes win to talk about, but the problem is that was back in last July, and has not found the winners since. Her form however is very good right now. She has run back to back career best 97 speed figures in her last two races. Two races back she finished a decent fourth in the GI Senorita, and was finished 12th in the Bluegrass Oaks in her last start. If she can capture those two efforts or something similar she should be in the top half of the field with a chance at a check. If however she fails to fire it could be a very ugly finish. Her speed figures have been on the steady rise, and she could move up after her last race.
Expected pace- Mid pack/stalker.
Expected finish- 6th She appears to be improving and could get a piece.