Ugly BB Distaff
Early morning rains threaten to soften the grass course for the 10th running of the Grade I Ugly Breeders Bowl Distaff.
As usual this premier event has attracted an overflow field of talented older fillies and mares to compete for the $450,000 purse.
Past winners have included Breeders Bowl Turf Distaff winner Cold Storage in 2006 and Hall of Famer Storm Dog in 2003.
Best wishes to all the breeders who entered their charges. It takes a lot of courage to admit you are an ugly breeder.
Here is a look at this year’s field:
PP 1 REGATTA(AUS) (ELVSTROEM (AUS) x DARSHAAN(ENG) x CANDY STRIPES) bred and trained by simon1966 (Hornedfrog Stables, 14%) Odds: 12-1
This is this veteran runner’s ninth graded try at a middle route distance. She’s proven she belongs at this level with a win and a couple other in-the-money finishes. In her most recent graded race, three months ago, she was nosed out by Queen Roid. She’s shown an early turn of foot in a race without much early speed. This is her first try on a wet track in 31 races. Not telling how she’ll like it.
PP 2 FANDEPGROOM (FANTASTIC LIGHT x DEPUTY MINISTER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred by jimj, trained by tenpin8 (Rockriver Stables, 15%) Odds: 6-1
Connections were delighted to get the wet conditions. Fandepgroom has four wins and two seconds in her six off track races. That’s more wet wins than any other in here, but the special edge is not unique to her – seven of the runners have won at least half their starts on off tracks. Except for a couple races earlier, she always ran with a rallying style. Last time, however, she tried to go wire to wire, fading badly after building a huge lead. The versatility she showed last time may be an asset.
PP 3 CAPTIVATING (VINDICATION x MR. PROSPECTOR x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by peeps3 (Cobra Kai Racing Stables, 15%) Odds: 11-1
Made it into the field on a tie-breaker, and hasn’t had a triple digit speed figure in four races, but her chances greatly improve on the off track. Her best races by far were on yielding surfaces. In six graded tries she has one third. That fact and her lack of recent speed make the 11-1 payout not quite generous enough for us, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see her pull off the upset.
PP 4 RED ROYAL (
Let’s do the bad news first. She hasn’t won a race in over a year. She lost her last race by 12 ½ despite being the second choice in the wagering. Here is the much better news. She has two wins and five seconds in her last ten starts at distances less than 10 furlongs, with many of those races coming against top flight competition. This is only her third start in the last four months and there is reason to be encouraged that she may be rounding back into form. Don’t get too excited about the off track record. Her one for one record came against a very weak four filly field in slow time.
PP 5 XTRA SMART(KY) (SMART STRIKE x KRIS S. x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred and trained by ejdstable (Ejdstable Stables, 21%) Odds: 18-1
This filly has only two bad turf races in her history. One of them was last time, though. It often pays to look closely at how this trainer with something Xtra has handled his charges. Last October, Smart upset a pretty weak field in the Grade III Panhandle Oaks. She followed that with a very impressive second as a mature three-year-old against an older and incredibly tough field in the Grade II Big Time. She looked poised for huge things, and then ran only OK against her own age group in the Grade I Penn Debutante. The three and a half month vacation she took makes one think she came back injured. This is her third start off the layoff and is eligible for a piece of the purse.
PP 6 CACHE(SAF) (HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF) x SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by misery (The SAF Connection, 15%) Odds: 10-1
The last three winners of the Ugly have exited the Grade I Virgin Mary. In today’s field, that those runners include Captivating, Xtra Smart, and this mare. While those three Ugly winners didn’t all run well in the Virgin Mary, Cache’s nice second place in that race ought to give her the edge against those two at least – and maybe the rest of the field. While she hasn’t won a race in over 14 months, she’s been a regular check earner. She deserves respect here as she runs the shortest race she’s tried in a very long time.
PP 7 BLUE WHITE (
Winning her last race on a wet grass surface is not as impressive as it may appear. It was a very weak and small allowance field in slow time. In her four unrestricted graded tries, she never finished in the money. She’s been a steady check earner against weaker than this group. It appears that her early running style in a race that lacks much early pace is her best chance to be rewarded.
PP 8 BUDA FOR A DAY(KY) (DAYJUR x STORM CAT x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by vicki (Twoofus Stables, 14%) Odds: 5-1*
Last minute entry and favorite has a lot going for her. Not only does she get Al Lewis (famed for his role as “Grandpa” on the Munsters) to ride, but her three for three performance on off tracks have all come in graded stake routes. She should love the conditions. We always like to find reasons not to like the favorite, so here goes: She’s coming off of only a two week break, and she’s never tried that before. Also, her only races at this distance or longer have not gone well.
PP 9 QUEEN ROID(IRE) (AZAMOUR (IRE) x KING OF KINGS (IRE) x IRON) bred and trained by dundey8 (Dundey8 Stables, 14%) Odds: 12-1
Odds must still be inflated by a poor race she ran two months ago. Otherwise, this one deserves a long look. Her close-up third last time in the Grade II Adelaide came against a field comparable to this. If this race were a half furlong shorter, on a firm surface, and had an obvious speed duel setting up, she’d be worth going to the windows with the children’s college fund. The lack of an early pace and questions about how she’ll handle the soft surface makes 12-1 only worth betting the money you’ve set aside for that anniversary present.
PP 10 GONE WYLDE (GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER x
No one would be surprised if this seasoned pro trotted off with the hardware. She’s fast and should get first run at any early runners if she doesn’t go for the early lead herself. She’s in top form right now, and a repeat of her nine furlong race from last August (the Grade II Devarto and Coker) is a likely winner.
PP 11 CLIFDEN CASTLE (SADLER’S WELLS x THATCHING(IRE) x HALO) bred and trained by mav1763 (Deadinthelane Stables, 21%) Odds: 7-1
Her 112 speed figure last time and her game win at the distance the time before make her the one to beat. Or would have. If only her two tries on off tracks had not been so dreadful. There is just no getting around it – the evidence says she cannot abide an off track, so we’ll reluctantly move on.
PP 12 THE WITCHING HOUR(JPN) (FANTASTIC LIGHT x
We have to choose between this one, Regatta, Blue White, and A Case in Point to find the speed of the speed. Of the four Witching seems to have the best chance of stealing the race on the lead. Eight for thirteen on turf routes and with multiple graded wins and in prime form now, she would surprise no one.
PP 13 A CASE IN POINT(KY) (POINT GIVEN x APTITUDE x STORM CAT) bred by speed2burn, trained by tsunami4 (Tsunami, 13%) Odds: 99-1
This stable’s motto is that you never win a graded stakes you don’t enter. This filly was heavily raced at two and three and after winning several stakes, including a Grade I for two-year-olds, she was dropped into bottom level claimers this past March. If only for her breeding potential, her present connections wisely snapped her up. But as far as racing is concerned she is unquestionably past her prime. She’s been losing by an average of 24 lengths while facing fields similar to this. She won’t be ready for the breeding shed for another six months or so, so what the heck, why not run her?
PP 14 TOMMY (
Hard to find any knocks on this mare. She’s at her favorite distance and has proven her class many times on the way to winning $1 million. Late runner will occasionally throw in a clunker, but there’s no reason to think one is coming today. If every runner repeats her lifetime best today, she doesn’t win – a few have better lifetime top speed figures, but she’s a classy mare who can’t be ignored.
Summary. I’m not going to pick this one correctly. After the race we should all be able to look back on the past performances and say, “Of course. I should have predicted that.” I won’t even try. Ok, I’ll try: Cache / Fandegroom / Tommy.