The two year olds get to chase Graded glory this week in Vermont. Taking on the six furlongs of The Vermont BB Juvenile, a full field will contest race 14, a Grade 2 event on a fast dirt track. The winner gets to take home the lion’s share of $250,000 and be virtually guaranteed a start in any race which connections chose to enter, at least in the short to medium term. As to be expected with so little exposed form, the early oddsmakers are not prepared to take any risks, and so they’ve installed Tonight Show as the favorite at a backable quote of 9/2. To avoid any huge plunges, they have listed nine of the runners at 11/1, and you’ll be lucky to get the 25/1 they’ve suggested for the rank outsider. We’ve not a real lot to go on, but we’ll work our way through the field
The early market is:
9/2 – Tonight Show
6/1 – Incredible Law, Pagan Stone
8/1 – Boy Sense
9/1 – Thornton Mellon
11/1 – Rally Van, Gringo, Grand Land, Morning Jewel
13/1 – Nonzolo
14/1 – Misty Whisper
19/1 – Man Du Mout, Ivory Quest
25/1 – Signed Up
Looking through the runners in betting order:
9/2 – #10 – Tonight Show – The bookmakers obviously know something we don’t here, as the favorite does not boast the unbeaten record which is the feature of four of his opponents here. Nor can does he hold the mantle of the fastest entrant, with an opponent having registered winning times of 1.11.6, whereas this bloke has yet to cross the line in under 1.12. There can be no doubting that he carries enviable bloodlines, being a scratchbred son of Storm Cat / Danzig / Forty Niner. Fattatack is almost certainly impressed with the colt’s progress so far, but if they are a betting stable, they’re entitled to ask for a more realistic price about Tonight Show.
6/1 – #2 – Incredible Law – With two wins and a second from three, including a victory at stakes level, this colt looks to have a bright future ahead. We don’t know how fast he can go. He rated an 80 at his debut run. That’s the highest speed number on the formpage, but on that occasion it was good enough for just the runner-up check in that Upper New York maiden. He hasn’t needed to go so fast since, as he’s accounted for all the opposition which has taken him on without needing to call on his full reserves. A son of Lawyer Ron, based on triple stakeswinner Incredible Mojo (Storm Cat / Crafty Prospector) the Tg bred and raced colt looms as a second to none chance. Unlikely to lead, I’d expect Incredible Law to cross to the fence and settle midfield, before powering home.
6/1 – #3 – Pagan Stone – Slightly disappointing eight weeks ago when stepping out for just the second time, when so much was expected from him following his demolition of fourteen opponents in a stakeswinning debut. He’s nonetheless retained the respect of the oddsmakers, due no doubt to a combination of impressive breeding, and that most convincing victory in the $125,000 black type event back in February. A son of Johannesburg, he’s already maintained the perfect stakes producing record of his dam Dan’s Queen (Danzig / Secretariat), whose only other progeny is the stakes winning, Graded placed filly Lifeless Pulp (Smart Strike). I’d suggest the family history makes a significant contribution to the shortish price, as form alone would have the Avalanche3 colt at a more generous quote. He’ll drop out early, and his not-so-flash jockey will be encouraging the gaps to open in the run home
8/1 – #6 – Boy Sense – Proven form has not accounted too much in the framing of the market here, as the first of four unbeaten colts comes under notice. His debut run over five furlongs was full of merit. 1.05.0 and a 75 against a full field back in March is most commendable. The speed number dropped next start, but that Japan allowance carried a $64k prize pool, and this fellow, although eased on the line, was extending his gap over the rest of the field. A son of Street Sense, his dam Boy Linda (Forty Niner / Selkirk) was a dual stakeswinner, and five time placed in Graded races including a Grade 1. She’s no slouch as a broodmare either, turning out SW (and in turn SW producer) Oh Boy Linda (Regal Classic) at her first try, before SP Top Exsecutive (Lemon Drop Kid) two years later. There’s still hope for Boy George (Giacomo) and with this one looking most likely to make the black type level, owner / trainer Bluelights is carving an impressive dynasty. The last furlong may be interesting as he’s not gone six previously, but I expect him to jump quickly and sit outside Rally Van, ideally positioned to motor home.
9/1 – #11 – Thornton Mellon – With two wins and a fifth from his three runs, he’s the better performed of only two runners with previous Graded experience. Although only fifth behind Osotogari in the G3-Television Stakes, the event was a five furlong scamper and he was doing his best work at the finish, indicating that the extra furlong here will be to his advantage. Prior to that he didn’t set the track on fire speed wise, but he won both the maiden and allowance with authority. Scratchbred by trainer Dolphinman, he carries the blood of Cat Thief / Awesome Again / A.P. Indy. The barrier is of no consequence, as he’ll drop out early, and although he’s still to try the six furlong trip, he’s almost certain to handle it. Sadly, he won’t be ridden by one of the elite, but F Neely (8%) is more than competent and the earlier high class racing has to be an added advantage.
11/1 – #1 – Rally Van – Unbeaten colt who looks to have been underrated in the early market. Certainly, his speeds have not been as impressive as some of his opponents this week, but they haven’t needed to be. There are no bonuses for large winning margins, and any jockey worth his salt is going to put the whip away once the job is done and the race is won. Speaking of jockeys, S. Kratch isn’t among the upper echelon, but he won’t be able to offer any excuses if he doesn’t perform in this. His mount is drawn the most prized barrier, and in his two earlier victories has established that he can either lead or take a sit. A very nice plus in a race where so much is unproven. Rally Van is a son of Van Nistelrooy, the first foal of Ashleigh’s nicely bred under achiever Jupiter Rally (Came Home / A.P. Indy). There’s no reason to suggest he can’t go on with it here.
11/1 – #7 – Gringo – Have to be nice here…can’t go upsetting the boss. On a serious note, the oddsmakers appear to have overlooked the potential for improvement here. The debut run on the dirt resulted in a speed rating of 70. Not at all shabby back in February. The soft follow up win only expanded this colt’s future options. Turf or dirt? Doesn’t really matter. Gringo is a son of Toccet, the fifth offspring of the owner’s triple stakeswinning, Grade 2 placed Broad Raise (Broad Brush / Raise a Native). Of her other progeny, only Humboldt Station (High Yield) has achieved black type status, so it won’t surprise if this fellow goes on to be the pick of the bunch. Roys has obviously been to busy this week to employ a real jockey, but Ahrens should have enough sense to slide across just behind the leaders and remain within striking range
11/1 – #8 – Grand Land – Another unbeaten colt running around at what appears a ridiculously generous quote! What does he need to do to gain a little respect? Two runs for two wins. Both over this trip. Inreased his speed rating by 9 points at his second run. Stopped the clock at 1.11.6 in a rich Eastern Kentucky allowance five weeks ago. He’s got a decent jockey and he’ll settle back before unleashing a late run. Grand Land is a son of Indian Charlie from Land Slam (Grand Slam / Dixieland Band), Graywolf3’s superb A rated broodmare. Four previous progeny have produced SP Charmeer (Silver Charm) and Graded placed stakeswinner Wolf’s Slam (French Deputy). If sim-genetics count for anything, this bloke deserves to be favorite.
11/1 – #12 – Morning Jewel – It’s a big step from maiden to Graded racing, but this colt couldn’t have been more impressive at his only run to date. Dominating a rich Kentucky maiden six weeks ago, he stopped the clock at 1.11.8, and he won’t need to find an awful lot more to put himself among the main threats this week. A son of Dixie Union, he’s the second foal of the four time stakes placed El Corredor / Polish Numbers mare Purple Stars. Breeder trainer Marksund owns half the mare, and sent her to Mingun last year, where she produced stakeswinner Midnight Jewel, so a more than handy family is developing nicely. I’d have liked to see him tackle a race mid way between the debut and Graded racing, and he may get caught a little wide if he races forward from this gate. Of course, these may prove to be unfounded concerns, and as he’s done nothing wrong, he must be treated with respect
13/1 – #13 – Nonzolo – One of only two runners with previous Graded experience, he was beaten just over two lengths last time out, but I can’t see him turning the tables on Thornton Mellow. Of course, this fellow was having just his second run, as opposed to the other one’s third, but the race was over five furlongs. The other bloke was finishing strongly at the end of the event, whereas this colt had had enough. Again, perhaps I’m looking for flaws where there are none. At this time of their careers, they can improve markedly from one run to the next, and he’s certainly earned the right to be here. Breeder / Trainer used the scratchbred lines of Sky Mesa / Dehere / Kingmambo in forming Nonzolo, so there’s nothing lacking there. He can run a good race, but I wouldn’t be lining up with too much confidence.
14/1 – #5 – Misty Whisper – We’re getting out a bit in the market now, and this colt looks, thus far, not as well prepared for a race of this nature as some of his opponents. A winner on debut on the grass, connections then gave him his second run on the dirt. He didn’t see that race out, and he has to go an extra furlong this week. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but it does seem a big ask to tackle Grade 3 company, with just one unsuccessful dirt allowance run on the board. A son of Latent Heat, he’s the fifth issue of the Grade 2 winner Misty Woodbine (Miswaki / Danzig). The first four all found there way to claimers. With apologies to Vertain6, I just can’t get excited about Misty Whisper’s chances.
19/1 – #9 – Man Du Mout – This colt has taken three attempts to break his maiden, and then steps up to Graded competition at his next start. If I were framing the market he’d be longer than the 19/1 on offer. Looking for positives, he does run his races out strongly, so he’ll almost certainly be doing his best work at the finish. Looking at his bloodlines, he’ll be doing much better work later in the year when the racing gets longer. Of course, looking at his bloodlines, he should be doing it on the grass, so perhaps we’d better not look at his bloodlines. Man Du Mout is a son of Manduro, the first issue of De Motu (Galileo / Ela Mana Mou). I can’t hold out much hope for the Lglong2 bred and trained colt.
19/1 – #14 – Ivory Quest – This bloke looks to have snuck under the radar, and stable followers are certain to be lining up for a bet at the 19/1 on offer. What has he done to be at such generous odds? Two wins and a second from three. The barrier may be a contributor to the price, but he’s shown in his two wins that he can either lead or come from behind. He’s got a handy jockey. In fact, he’s got a lot more going for him than some of his shorter priced rivals. A son of Ivory Touch, he’s the first progeny of Thug’s Request (Coronado’s Quest / Dare and Go). Perhaps the bookmakers remember her, but if they do it should be fondly, as she would have put plenty into their bags with her woeful one win from thirty two. If you like Ivory Quest, don’t be put off by the price. He’ll beat plenty home.
25/1 – #4 – Signed Up – Yep. I have no idea how they framed the book for this race. The work experience kid, or the new apprentice got the job perhaps. Sure, the colt needs to shave a second off his best time, but you don’t need to run time when you’re first to the wire. Two wins in a row. Both over this trip. But then, stable followers were nicely rewarded at the windows in both of those races, so they’ll be lining up for another tilt this week. And rightly so. A son of Include, he’s the third progeny of Graded placed stakeswinner Heavenly Host (Septieme Ciel / Kingmambo), whose second foal, Incredible Cause (Giant’s Causeway) has been successful at stakes level. Owner oneworld can reasonably expect a far better run from Signed Up than the oddsmakers are predicting.
Summary: A tough race, and as we’d expect in an early two year old classic, anything could probably happen. From a betting perspective, I don’t believe there is much value at the top of the charts, with the three runners at the top of the market all having ‘convictions’, while four unbeaten colts run around at much better prices. If you fancy Boy Sense, Rally Van, Grand Land or Morning Jewel, then an across the board wager on any one of them could prove very rewarding. The best speed rating on the page belongs to Incredible Law, who, along with Pagan Stone, represent the previous stakes winners. The best Graded performance (albeit from just one race at the level) comes from Thornton Mellow. Down the bottom of the market, Ivory Quest and Signed Up both appear to have been treated harshly and could add real value to the exotics. Gringo is a bit of an unknown quantity, with plenty of upside. I’m not saying Tonight Show cannot win, but he is not good value in a tough race. Nonzolo, Misty Whisper and Man Du Mout all look to have been set huge tasks.
Selections:
Grand Land – Unbeaten and has recorded the fastest winning time over the trip.
Ivory Quest – Unbelievable Value
Rally Van – Could dictate the race